PAKISTAN FOOD INSECURITY -SERIOUS CHALLENGE

 

The precarious state of food security in Pakistan is a subject of concern among agricultural economists due to various factors. The current high and volatile food prices indicate the challenging situation of food security in the country. Economic instability and the subsequent reduction in agricultural subsidies, combined with the adverse effects of climate change on crop yield, have contributed to an increasingly uncertain scenario for food supplies in Pakistan.

 

Ensuring sustainable food availability at stable and affordable prices is a responsibility of the government, both in rural and urban markets. However, in developing countries like Pakistan, which face financial limitations, achieving food security involves complex trade-offs. Striking a balance between different development goals and protecting the interests of various groups poses a daunting challenge.

 

Pakistan's population growth rate is significantly higher than the global average, with over 220 million people. Unfortunately, the expansion of agricultural land has not kept pace with population growth due to the scarcity of water, a major limiting factor. As a result, Pakistan relies heavily on increasing crop productivity to feed its growing population. However, the rising costs of agricultural inputs and the threat of climate change have made it increasingly difficult to achieve significant increases in crop yields.

 

One potential solution is to increase the cultivation of wheat, which is a staple food in Pakistan, by providing farmers with higher support prices. Arguments in favor of this approach include the higher import prices of wheat due to the depreciation of the Pakistani rupee, achieving self-sufficiency in wheat production, saving foreign exchange, and incentivizing farmers to grow wheat instead of other crops. However, it is important to consider the potential adverse effects of high support prices, as seen in past rice policies in countries like Indonesia and the Philippines, where increased prices disproportionately affected the poor and hungry, who were net rice buyers.

 

To address these challenges, the government must strike a balance between expanding wheat production through higher support prices, poverty alleviation efforts, and allocating funds for safety nets to provide subsidized wheat flour to the poor. Additionally, promoting pro-poor economic growth and developing the agriculture sector are crucial objectives that must be taken into account.

 

Food price volatility has emerged as a critical issue in Pakistan, posing risks and creating a poverty trap for both consumers and farmers. Fluctuating prices negatively impact vulnerable households, forcing them to deplete their resources to survive during food crises, thus hindering their ability to escape poverty. Stable food prices at the macro level simplify the implementation of poverty alleviation programs and allow for long-term development strategies and investments in economic growth.

 

At the global level, certain developments can have a profound impact on Pakistan's food security situation in the short and long term. Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide, as seen in below-average monsoons in India, heat waves and droughts in China and Pakistan, and extreme droughts in Europe. These adverse effects on agriculture contribute to volatility in global food prices, particularly if major producers impose export restrictions, as witnessed in India in 2022.

 

Furthermore, as average incomes rise in many countries, there is a shift in dietary patterns towards animal protein and a more "westernized" diet. This trend leads to increased wheat consumption and reduced reliance on rice, potentially driving up global wheat prices. Additionally, the growing consumption of animal products requires larger quantities of livestock and poultry feed, leading to the use of more land for feed ingredients such as soybeans, maize, and canola, which in turn reduces the area available for wheat and rice cultivation.

 

The production of biofuels derived from agricultural crops may also disrupt the agriculture and food sector. While currently not feasible due to cost considerations, if oil prices rise to a point where biofuel production becomes economically viable, it could pose a significant risk to poor consumers in countries like Pakistan, as food crops may be diverted for biofuel production.

 

Taken together, these developments indicate that food security is no longer solely an agricultural issue but a trade and macroeconomic challenge. A comprehensive policy approach encompassing agriculture, international trade, economic development, and poverty alleviation is necessary to address future food security concerns. Additionally, when fiscal resources permit, Pakistan should build reserves of essential crops like wheat, rice, and maize to ensure food security and stabilize prices within the country.