THE terrorist threat, if left unaddressed, threatens to again grow into an uncontrollable hydra, resulting in an unacceptably high number of both civilian and military casualties. As a report by a local think tank points out, militant violence is showing an upward trend, with a higher frequency of attacks, as well as increased fatalities. According to figures compiled by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies, there were 271 militant attacks across the country during the first six months of this year, resulting in 389 fatalities and over 650 injuries. The number of attacks, as well as fatalities, is higher compared to the corresponding period last year. KP — both its tribal and settled districts — has been hardest hit, with 266 lives lost across the province to militancy. Balochistan comes in second where terrorist violence is concerned. The latest attacks targeting military personnel also occurred in Balochistan on Sunday, resulting in the martyrdom of six military personnel, including a major. One incident occurred in Kech during an intelligence-based operation, while several attacks on check-posts in Sherani district took the lives of four men. The banned TTP claimed credit for the Sherani attacks.
The security planners need to consider two key challenges when drawing up counterterrorism plans: the continuously changing nature of the terrorist threat, and the high number of fatalities of military, paramilitary and police personnel. Concerning the first challenge, Sunday’s attacks occurred in Balochistan’s Baloch- as well as Pakhtun-dominated areas. In the Baloch areas, this could mean that separatist elements are involved, or, as some have noted, religiously inspired Baloch militants have joined forces with the TTP. The state, therefore, must deal with the threat accordingly. Secondly, the large number of fatalities amongst security personnel is alarming. According to media reports quoting the ISPR chief, 95 officers and men have been martyred in antiterrorism operations. These reports were not specific about the period during which these fatalities occurred. The fact is that security personnel, including police officers, need to have the training and equipment which can help bring down the fatality rate significantly. The state cannot afford to keep on losing such a high number of security men. Moreover, the counterterrorism strategy must also include action against the supporters of those who ruthlessly target our security personnel, yet continue to operate without fear even in the federal capital.
STATE OF PAKISTAN ECONOMY
THE sceptics may have their doubts about a ‘miracle turnaround’ in Pakistan’s fortunes after the government grabbed a last-minute stand-by loan from the IMF, but the markets have been quick this week to cash in on the euphoria.
The dollar fell sharply once trading resumed after the holidays, collapsing like a punctured balloon; stock market activity heated up like it had not in years, with speculative investors eager to get their hands on whatever they could; gold prices registered a sharp decline; and fresh inflation readings — although unrelated to the IMF deal announcement — indicated that the pressures that had built up within the economy might finally be showing signs of easing.
Had Pakistan really stumbled back onto the path to prosperity over the course of a long weekend thanks to just one loan deal? That’s what the government, at least, would have us believe.
Experts and analysts, on the other hand, are still warning of the underlying risks imperilling Pakistan’s economic prosperity. Global credit ratings agencies Moody’s and Fitch on Monday reminded the world that Islamabad still needs to pay back $25bn to creditors this fiscal year — a sum which is more than seven times what it officially has in its pocket at the moment and much more than the $3bn the IMF has grudgingly agreed to lend it over the course of the next nine months (which remains subject to approval by its board as well as Islamabad meeting the stringent conditions that will likely be laid out before it as a prerequisite for loan disbursements).
The same day, data released by the Bureau of Statistics showed that exports had dropped 19pc in the month of June compared to the previous year, marking the 10th straight month of a drop in export proceeds. The trend, if it persists, will only worsen difficulties in financing the current account.
Therefore, the question: are we celebrating too early? The smart money seems to think so. While the ‘positive trigger’ from the IMF deal has been welcomed by the stock and foreign exchange markets, the high spirits will not last.
Both forex and stock analysts have warned that what we are seeing is a temporary bonanza, not a turnaround in their respective markets’ fortunes. There is now a broad consensus that till the fundamentals are fixed — ie, till Pakistan embarks on a structured plan to reform the economy and fix its underlying imbalances — nobody can breathe easy.
And how long must we remain in this purgatory? With an election coming up, the most painful measures will likely be put off for another few months for the new government to inherit. It is a shame that, with so much at stake, we are still not sure of what comes next
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