"Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment" is a comprehensive and thought-provoking report authored by P. Charon and J.-B. Jeangène Vilmer, published by the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM) under the Ministry for the Armed Forces in France. This report delves into the intricate realm of Chinese influence operations, drawing parallels to Machiavellian tactics, and provides a meticulous analysis of China's strategic efforts to wield influence on the global stage.
Brief
History Chinese Influence Operations
For a long time, it could be said that China,
unlike Russia, sought to be loved rather than feared; that it wanted to seduce
and project a positive image of itself in the world, or to inspire admiration.
Today, Beijing has not renounced to seduce, nor its overall attractiveness and
its ambition to shape international standards, and it is essential for the
Chinese Communist Party not to lose face. And yet, Beijing is also increasingly
comfortable with infiltration and coercion: its influence operations have become
considerably tougher in recent years and its methods are resembling more
closely the ones employed by Moscow. This is a “Machiavellian turn” in as much
as the Party-State now seems to believe that “it is much safer to be feared
than to be loved,” in the words of Machiavelli in The Prince. This is a clear change
of Chinese influence operations.
This report delves into this evolution, with
the ambition to cover the whole specter of influence, from the most benign
(public diplomacy) to the most malign methods, that is, interference
(clandestine activities). To do that, the report is divided into four parts:
successively laying out the main concepts; the actors implementing these
operations, including the Base 311 of the People’s Liberation Army; the actions
conducted by Beijing toward the diasporas, the media, diplomacy, economy,
politics, education, think tanks, and in terms of information manipulations –
some levers among others; then, several cases are studied (Taiwan, Singapore,
Sweden, Canada, the operations that targeted Hong Kong protestors in 2019, and
the one that branded the Covid-19 as an American fabrication in 2020).
The report assesses the effectiveness of this
new Chinese posture, which can boast some tactical successes, but constitutes a
strategic failure.
The Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM),
founded in 2009, is a research institute attached to the French Ministry for
the Armed Forces.
The
Authors
Dr. Paul CHARON is Director for “Intelligence,
Strategic Foresight, and Hybrid Threats” at the Institute for Strategic
Research (IRSEM). He holds a PhD in Political Studies and Chinese Studies from
the School of Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (EHESS, Centre d’études
sur la Chine moderne et contemporaine) and an MBA (HEC).
Dr. Jean-Baptiste JEANGÈNE VILMER is the
Director of the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM). Trained in three
disciplines – Philosophy (Bachelor, Master, Ph.D.), Law (Bachelor, LL.M.,
postdoctorate) and Political Science (Ph.D.) – in France and abroad, he was
previously a policy officer on Security and Global Affairs at the Policy
Planning Staff of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Understanding Influence Operations
The book begins with a
solid foundation, offering readers a clear definition of influence operations
and their significance in contemporary geopolitics. The authors elucidate the
concept of "sharp power," differentiating it from traditional forms
of soft and hard power. This section lays the groundwork for comprehending the
complexities of China's influence strategies.
The report sets the
stage, providing an overview of the growing significance of influence
operations in the modern geopolitical landscape. The authors introduce the term
"Machiavellian Moment" as a lens through which to understand China's
intricate manipulation of power dynamics to achieve its strategic goals. The
tone is both analytical and captivating, drawing readers into the exploration
of this challenging subject.
The authors trace the
historical evolution of Chinese influence operations. From the Mao era to the
modern day, the report offers a comprehensive understanding of the ideological
and tactical shifts that have shaped China's approach to influence. This historical
perspective is crucial for contextualizing the contemporary strategies
discussed in later sections.
They highlight the
historical roots of influence strategies, drawing parallels with Machiavellian
tactics employed during the Renaissance. This part serves as an essential
framework for the subsequent exploration of Chinese influence operations. It
explains the underlying principles and psychological mechanisms that guide the
art of manipulation and persuasion.
The report, delves into
the intricate landscape of Chinese influence operations on the global stage.
With an aim to decipher the motivations, strategies, and implications of these
operations, the report offers insights into the evolving dynamics of China's
diplomatic and strategic efforts.
China's Strategic Objectives:
In this section, the
report delves into the motives driving China's influence operations. The
authors dissect China's ambition to reshape global narratives, project soft
power, and secure favorable geopolitical outcomes. They show how China's
influence efforts extend beyond traditional diplomacy, encompassing a wide
array of tools such as economic investments, cultural initiatives, and digital
propaganda.
China's Strategic Influence Campaigns
This segment forms the
crux of the report, exploring China's multifaceted influence campaigns across
diplomatic, economic, information, and military domains. The authors scrutinize
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), technological expansion, Confucius
Institutes, and cyber activities, providing analyses of their implications for global
power dynamics.
Tactics and Techniques:
Part III is the heart
of the report, where the authors delve into the tactical intricacies of Chinese
influence operations. They examine the techniques employed in shaping public
opinion, infiltrating media landscapes, and steering international discourse.
The analysis of China's utilization of technology, social media platforms, and
information warfare provides readers with a detailed understanding of the
methods used to advance the country's interests.
Unveiling the Machiavellian Elements
Building on the
Machiavellian analogy, Part II dissects the historical context and core
components of Machiavellian tactics and how they intersect with China's
influence operations. The authors draw parallels between China's statecraft and
Machiavellian principles, highlighting the pragmatism, manipulation, and
realpolitik that underpin both approaches.
The ethical
implications of employing Machiavellian tactics in contemporary diplomacy are
examined in this section. The authors bring out the moral dilemmas surrounding
influence operations, questioning the boundaries between legitimate statecraft
and subversive manipulation.
Tools and Techniques
One of the highlights
of the report, this section delves deep into the array of tools and techniques
China employs for influence operations. From state-controlled media to the Belt
and Road Initiative, the authors analyse each mechanism, outlining their
mechanisms, objectives, and real-world impact.
Motivations and Goals
Here, the authors
explore the underlying motivations driving China's influence operations. Beyond
the conventional realm of geopolitical power, the report reveals the intricate
interplay between China's domestic interests and its global ambitions. Economic
growth, regime stability, and the quest for global leadership converge in a
complex web of motivations that shape China's actions.
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