Likely Escalation Civil War in Myanmar In 2025-Increased Challenges For India

 

The 2021 Coup and the Rise of Armed Resistance: 

Myanmar has been in turmoil since the 2021 military coup that ousted the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. This action sparked widespread anger and fuelled a nationwide armed resistance movement against the junta. The fighting has intensified over the past year, with the fiercest resistance concentrated in regions populated by ethnic minorities. In these areas, various ethnic groups and civilian-led defense forces have formed alliances to challenge the military's control across significant portions of the country.

Rebel Gains and Military Setbacks:

While rebels have made progress throughout the war-torn nation, their advances are particularly notable in areas bordering China. The military has suffered a series of defeats, notably losing control of the western border with Bangladesh to the Arakan Army (AA) in December. The AA’s expulsion of the junta’s Border Guard Police (PGP5) from northern Rakhine State has given the rebels control of the entire 270-kilometer border. Only the state capital, Sittwe, remains under military control, effectively isolating it from the rest of the nation. The AA is poised to become the first insurgent group to achieve complete control of a state in Myanmar.

Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement:

The ongoing conflict has resulted in widespread devastation and human suffering. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, reported that the military has killed over 5,000 civilians since 2021. The conflict has displaced over three million people nationwide, and approximately 18 million people – a third of the population – lack access to essential resources such as food, housing, electricity, and heating. The Rohingya population, already subjected to years of persecution, has been particularly affected. A Rohingya man described their current situation as even more difficult than under previous military juntas, with nearly 750,000 having fled to Bangladesh.

International Efforts and Future Outlook: China has advocated for a ceasefire, with two out of three members of the Brotherhood Alliance agreeing to it. While the insurgents have demanded the military's removal from politics, their primary focus may be consolidating their territorial gains. Myanmar's neighboring countries are increasingly concerned about the instability. Thailand hosted talks in December involving foreign ministers and high-level representatives from Myanmar, Laos, China, India, Bangladesh, and Thailand, aiming to resolve the political crisis. These efforts are unlikely to succeed without the military's genuine commitment to peace. The military is the root cause of the problems and warns against taking the junta's promises of future elections seriously. Aung San Suu Kyi, the 78-year-old Nobel laureate, remains under house arrest, facing a 27-year prison sentence on various charges, all of which she denies. The chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) has requested an arrest warrant for junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, with the junta's ability to maintain control in 2025 – or even stage a comeback – in serious doubt.