The Overthrow of Assad: A Turning Point in the Syrian Civil War-Stabilizing Syria main challenge

 

The Genesis of the Conflict and Years of Stalemate: The Syrian civil war, erupting in 2011 from pro-democracy protests against Bashar al-Assad's regime, took a dramatic turn in late 2024. Assad, who had succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad (president since 1971) in 2000, was ultimately ousted by rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS). The conflict, initially sparked by Assad's violent suppression of dissent, had resulted in an estimated 500,000 deaths and years of stalemate. As 2024 began, the situation remained largely unchanged: Sunni militants controlled northeast Syria, Kurdish forces backed by the US held the northwest, and Assad maintained control over the rest, including Damascus.  

The Rebel Offensive and the Fall of Aleppo:

Renewed violence erupted in October 2024, with clashes between insurgents and government forces, compounded by Russian airstrikes. The turning point came in late November when an Islamist-led rebel alliance launched a major offensive. In a matter of days, HTS and its allies recaptured Aleppo, a strategically vital city of two million people, for the first time since the war began. This was a devastating blow to Assad, who had spent four years and inflicted immense destruction attempting to regain control of the former Syrian economic hub. Despite Syrian and Russian airstrikes on Aleppo, the rebels maintained their hold. While Russia and Iran reaffirmed their support for Assad, experts began to express serious doubts about his prospects.  

Shifting Geopolitics and Assad's Weakened Position: 

Analysts like Aron Lund of Century International suggested that the loss of Aleppo rendered Assad's government non-functional. They pointed to Russia's preoccupation with the war in Ukraine and the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah due to their conflict with Israel as key factors contributing to Assad's vulnerability. Aaron Stein of the Foreign Policy Research Institute highlighted the reduced Russian presence and the limited effectiveness of quick reaction airstrikes, underscoring the Assad regime's inherent weakness. Experts like Emile Hokayem from the International Institute for Strategic Studies noted that the rebels had used the preceding years to regroup, rearm, and retrain, capitalizing on both geopolitical shifts and local opportunities.  

The Rapid Collapse of the Regime: 

he rebel offensive triggered international calls for de-escalation, with many, including the US (which designates HTS as a terrorist group), caught off guard by the rebels' rapid advances. Emboldened by their success in Aleppo, the rebels pressed forward, capturing strategically important cities like Hama, Daraa, and Homs, effectively splitting the Assad regime in two. On December 8, rebel forces entered Damascus, proclaiming the dawn of a new Syria. Assad subsequently fled to Moscow, where he was granted asylum. Millions of Syrian refugees began expressing their intention to return home.  

International Reactions and Regional Implications: 

The Biden administration commented on the dramatic events, suggesting that US and allied actions had weakened Syria's backers—Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. While calling Assad's fall "a fundamental act of justice" and a "moment of risk and uncertainty," Biden stated that the US would closely monitor the rebels' actions. Experts predicted significant changes in West Asia in 2025. A US official suggested that the developments in Syria signaled the collapse of "Iran's artifice" in the region. Analysts like Danny Citrinowicz of the Atlantic Council argued that Assad's demise represented a "fatal strike" on Iran's influence in the Middle East, dramatically weakening its ability to rebuild Hezbollah and threaten Israel. He concluded that Iran would need to devise a new regional strategy without relying on proxies. The future of Syria, and its impact on neighboring countries like Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel, remained a central focus of international attention.