A Complex and Escalating Crisis
Manipur exemplifies the challenges of managing an internal security problem. The state faces a volatile mix of ethnic conflicts, tribal insurgency, drug trafficking, and infiltration from Myanmar. Despite India's proven expertise in addressing internal security issues—such as countering terrorism in Punjab, containing insurgency in the Northeast, and curbing Maoist rebellion—Manipur's situation has deteriorated alarmingly.
The Current Approach: A Flawed Strategy
The Government of India has primarily treated Manipur's crisis as a law-and-order issue. The recent deployment of 90 additional Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) companies, alongside the imposition of the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) in select areas, has resulted in a saturation of security forces in the state. Despite these measures, the absence of political initiatives and confidence-building measures has allowed the crisis to deepen.
The Roots of the Conflict
The ethnic violence that erupted on May 3, 2023, between the Meiteis (majority in the Imphal Valley) and the Kuki-Zo tribals (residing in the surrounding hills) has led to significant loss of life and displacement.
- Casualties and Displacement: 258 deaths and over 60,000 displaced.
- Destruction of Religious Structures: 386 religious sites vandalized.
- Recent Escalation: Violent encounters, such as the killing of 10 militants on November 11, have reignited tensions. Subsequent protests and political fallout highlight the state government's inability to restore normalcy.
Lessons Ignored: The Need for a Holistic Approach
Effective management of tribal unrest requires more than forceful suppression. While controlling violence is essential, it must be accompanied by:
- Addressing grievances and reconciling differences.
- Forming peace committees at multiple levels.
- Taking political initiatives to inspire public confidence.
The "Winning Hearts and Minds" (WHAM) approach, proven effective in counter-insurgency, has been underutilized.
Recommendations for Immediate Action
The situation demands decisive and multi-faceted interventions:
- Prime Ministerial Visit: The Prime Minister should visit Manipur to signal commitment and initiate dialogue.
- Imposition of President’s Rule: A dynamic governor with counter-insurgency experience should be appointed to lead the state.
- Administrative Overhaul: Ineffective senior officers should be replaced with those willing to tackle the crisis fearlessly.
- Uncompromising Integrity: A clear message should be conveyed that the integrity of Manipur is non-negotiable.
- Targeted Actions Against Miscreants:
- Crackdown on individuals inciting or engaging in violence.
- Address attempts to communalize the conflict and vandalism of religious sites.
- Tackle drug trafficking with zero tolerance.
- Disarmament Drive: A time-bound initiative to recover unlicensed and prohibited weapons, with violators facing strict penalties under the National Security Act.
- Formation of Peace Committees: Establish district and state-level peace committees with representation from all communities to foster dialogue and reconciliation.
Conclusion: A Chance to Rebuild
While the Centre has lost precious time, it can still recover lost ground. Drawing inspiration from Chanakya’s wisdom—“We should not fret over the past, nor should we be anxious about the future. Men of discernment deal only with the present moment”—the Government of India must act decisively. Restoring peace in Manipur will be a challenging journey, but with sustained effort, it is achievable
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