Rebuilding Syria: A Herculean Task for the New Regime

 Challenges for the Interim Government

The reconstruction of Syria poses immense challenges for the new interim government. These include rebuilding the nation's key institutions, such as the armed forces, police, and judiciary; revitalizing the shattered economy; addressing the political vacuum; and establishing an inclusive democratic government. The scale of these tasks underscores the complexity of restoring stability in a country devastated by years of civil war.

The Fall of the Assad Regime

In a swift and decisive offensive starting November 27, 2024, Turkey-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched coordinated attacks from their stronghold in Idlib province. Within just 13 days, HTS captured Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and finally Damascus on December 8, bringing the 24-year rule of Bashar al-Assad and the 54-year dominance of the Assad family to an abrupt end. Assad fled to Russia with his family, marking the collapse of his regime after years of support from Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia.

Humanitarian Crisis: The Aftermath of War

The Syrian Civil War has left a staggering toll: nearly 650,000 deaths and the displacement of over 13 million people, more than half of the country’s population. Among these, 6.7 million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, including Turkey (3.5 million), Lebanon (1 million), Jordan (0.7 million), Iraq (0.3 million), Egypt (0.2 million), and North Africa (0.1 million). European nations, including Germany, Sweden, and France, have also taken in over a million refugees. The task of repatriating these refugees remains a critical priority for the new government.

The Resilience of the Assad Regime

Despite predictions of its fall as early as 2012, the Assad regime endured for another 12 years. This longevity was due to the support of Hezbollah, Iranian forces, and Russian air power. Minority groups such as Christians (10%), Shias including Alawis (12%), and Druze (3%) backed the regime for their own security. Even a segment of the Sunni majority (15-20%) supported Assad due to economic and bureaucratic privileges. However, this support base eroded as the war dragged on.

The Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham

HTS, led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, emerged as a dominant force in Syria’s opposition landscape. Jolani, a former Al Qaeda affiliate, reshaped his group into a disciplined and locally rooted entity. Initially known as Jabhat al-Nusra, the group underwent several transformations before becoming HTS in 2017. By autonomously governing Idlib province since 2016, HTS established a stronghold that enabled their rapid offensive in late 2024.

Strategic Gains and Military Collapse

HTS’s November offensive capitalized on a demoralized Syrian Arab Armed Forces (SAAF), which suffered from unpaid wages and widespread desertions. The fall of Aleppo, Homs, and Hama highlighted the regime’s inability to mount significant resistance. Simultaneously, Kurdish forces in the northeast advanced, capturing Deir Ezzor, while southern rebels took Daraa and pushed toward Damascus. The timing of these attacks coincided with geopolitical distractions, such as U.S. involvement in Ukraine and Israeli offensives in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israel’s Strategic Moves

Israel quickly occupied the Golan Heights buffer zone, previously monitored by the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). This move, while securing Israeli interests, risks creating vulnerabilities to guerrilla attacks. UNDOF, under the leadership of India’s Brigadier Amitabh Jha, continues to hold its positions despite mounting challenges. Meanwhile, Israel’s airstrikes on Syria aim to neutralize potential threats but may sow seeds of long-term instability.

Formation of an Inclusive Government

Mohammed al-Bashir, the former governor of Idlib, has been appointed interim prime minister to oversee a peaceful political transition. His primary tasks include forming an inclusive government that accommodates diverse factions and communities, including Kurds and southern armed groups. The demobilization, disarmament, and rehabilitation of various militias will be critical to restoring stability and rule of law.

The Path to Reconstruction

Rebuilding Syria’s devastated infrastructure and institutions will require significant international support. Gulf Cooperation Council countries are expected to play a crucial role by providing financial aid for reconstruction. Key priorities include reviving the economy, re-establishing public services, and fostering a sense of security among citizens.

Assad’s Legacy of Destruction

Bashar al-Assad’s scorched-earth strategy during the civil war left vast swathes of Syria’s cities in ruins. His declaration that “If we are forced to leave, there will be no Damascus left” reflects the extensive destruction inflicted on urban centers. The new regime faces the daunting task of rebuilding a nation from the ashes of this devastation.

Conclusion

The fall of the Assad regime marks the beginning of a challenging journey for Syria’s interim government. Achieving stability, fostering inclusivity, and rebuilding the nation’s institutions will require coordinated efforts from both domestic and international stakeholders. The path ahead is fraught with difficulties, but with determined leadership and global support, Syria may yet find a way to rise from the ruins.