A Geopolitical Nightmare for India
An unstable Bangladesh, mired in radical Islamism and
political violence, has long been India’s geopolitical nightmare. Recent
developments have exacerbated this concern. In August, widespread protests and
a harsh government crackdown culminated in the military-backed ouster of Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had veered toward authoritarianism. However,
instead of ushering in a democratic transition, the regime change has plunged
Bangladesh into deeper chaos. Human rights abuses, lawlessness, and the rise of
Islamist groups now threaten to turn the country into a new global flashpoint.
Sheikh Hasina: Balancing Authoritarianism and Stability
Sheikh Hasina, despite her authoritarian tendencies, had
been a stabilizing force in Bangladesh. Once a pro-democracy leader who helped
topple the military regime in 1990, Hasina later consolidated power as Prime
Minister but kept both the powerful military and Islamist movements in check.
Under her leadership, Bangladesh’s fragile stability was maintained.
In South Asia, military-backed regimes are notorious for
their heavy-handed suppression of dissent, while militaries with unfulfilled
ambitions often exploit unrest to seize power. In Bangladesh, the military
refused to enforce a lockdown amid widespread protests. Once Hasina was ousted,
it quickly installed an interim administration and ensured her departure to
India before she could formally resign.
A Military-Mullah Nexus in Power
The interim regime is nominally led by Nobel Peace Prize
laureate Muhammad Yunus, who rose to prominence with the support of a
student-led, Islamist-backed protest movement. However, the 84-year-old Yunus
serves merely as the civilian face of what is effectively a military-Islamist
alliance. Despite lacking constitutional legitimacy, the interim administration
has offered no timeline for national elections, deepening political
uncertainty.
Curtailing Freedoms and Suppressing Dissent
Under the interim regime, press freedom and civil liberties
have been severely curtailed. Journalists face systematic harassment, with 167
press credentials revoked without explanation and 129 journalists charged with
fabricated cases of murder, abduction, or assault. Scholars, lawyers, and
critics of the regime have also faced legal persecution. In October alone, more
than 7,000 individuals were arrested, and political detainees have reported
physical assaults while in custody.
The regime’s crackdown has extended to minority communities
as well. Late last month, a Hindu monk was arrested on sedition charges after
leading peaceful protests demanding protections for Bangladesh’s Hindu
minority. This is part of a larger trend of targeted violence. Hindu
communities, along with Buddhists, Christians, indigenous groups, and Islamic
sects deemed heretical, have been subjected to attacks by jihadi mobs. At one
anti-Hindu protest, Islamist marchers openly chanted, “Catch them and slaughter
them.”
The Islamist Resurgence
The rise in Islamist violence is a direct consequence of the
interim regime’s policies. It has lifted bans on jihadi groups with known links
to terrorism and released radical Islamist leaders, including one convicted for
murdering a secular blogger. The regime has also signaled plans to remove
secularism from the country’s constitution, further emboldening extremist
forces. In some instances, Islamists have enforced their radical ideology by
targeting women for “immodest” attire, showcasing their intent to impose a
rigid moral code on society.
Implications for India and the United States
An unstable Bangladesh, overrun by radical Islamism and
political violence, poses a serious threat to India’s security. Beyond India,
the United States must recognize that the current trajectory in Bangladesh is
also detrimental to its own strategic interests. Washington’s pressure on the
interim regime to restore stability, protect minorities, and uphold democratic
principles could help address the crisis. Such a shift would not only
strengthen regional security but also contribute to mending America’s strained
relationship with India.
A Call for Urgent Action
The developments in Bangladesh are a cause for global
concern. The international community, particularly the United States, must act
swiftly to prevent Bangladesh from becoming a hotbed of Islamist extremism and
political instability. For India, the stakes are especially high, as a
destabilized neighbor threatens regional peace and security. Urgent
intervention is necessary to safeguard Bangladesh’s secular foundations and
ensure a path toward stability and democracy.
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