East Asia Summit and the South China Sea

East Asia Summit and the South China Sea September 1, 2016, 2:51 pm IST SD Pradhan East Asia Summit and the South China Sea The East Asia Summit (EAS), the next week in Laos would see leaders assembling from 18 countries to take up the ... The East Asia Summit (EAS), the next week in Laos would see leaders assembling from 18 countries to take up the issues discussed earlier at Kuala Lumpur in November 2015. The EAS, which comprises the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) along with Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Russia, and the United States, is considered the premier forum for leaders to discuss strategic issues. This meeting would be significant as this would be the first meeting after the Permanent Court of Arbitration gave its verdict in the Philippines vs China case. In 2015, ahead of the meeting, several countries pushed for a larger role of EAS not only in resolving major regional issues but also global crises and matters of concerns. In view of this, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak commented that ‘we are convinced that a stronger EAS will further contribute to peace and security in the region’. Crucially, the South China Sea received greater focus in the Chairman’s statement. Five of the 31 paragraphs in the entire chairman’s statement were devoted to the South China Sea disputes, compared to the single paragraph allotted for other regional and international issues. This was a reflection of growing importance of the South China Sea among the countries in the EAS. He stressed the importance of peace, stability and freedom of navigation and over flight, expressed serious concerns about ongoing developments, and emphasised the urgent need to conclude a binding code of conduct (COC). Interestingly, one of the paragraphs referenced assurances given by Chinese president Xi Jinping during his visit to Washington was about not pursuing militarization in the South China Sea. The Laos Meet is likely to take up the South China Sea issue and the ruling. While there may not be a strong criticism due to the efforts of China and its supporters, there would be discussions both in bilateral talks as also in the general discussions. Nations would like to be assured that China stops militarisation as was assured at Kuala Lumpur Summit. The ruling that has strengthened the position of other claimants. India has already made its policy clear after the ruling was announced. India’s external affairs ministry issued a statement and without naming China, called on all stakeholders to resolve disputes peacefully and to show respect for the UNCLOS. India and US had also issued a Joint vision statement on the South China Sea and India had signed a “common position” statement on the issue in April 2016 in Moscow. While the Russia-India-China trilateral joint communiqué by three foreign ministers did resemble the language used by Chinese foreign ministry statements, it stressed on the UNCLOS and DOC. It called for all disputes in the South China Sea (SCS) to “be addressed through negotiations and agreements between the parties concerned. In this regard, the Ministers called for full respect of all provisions of UNCLOS, as well as the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) and the Guidelines for the implementation of the DOC.” A joint statement issued by the Indian and Japanese Defence Ministers following the annual Indo-Japanese Defence Ministerial Meeting on July 14, 2016 again urged parties to “show utmost respect for the UNCLOS” and more importantly expressed the two countries’ “concern over recent developments” (Chinese actions such as the landing of planes on artificial islands and the tirade against the tribunal judges, coupled with threats to declare an air defence identification zone over the SCS). India had been consistent in stressing the implementation of UNCLOS without taking a position in the dispute. However, the Chinese side projected only the first part of the statement. Indian PM Modi would meet the new President of the Philippines at the EAS and would be discussing the issue. The Philippines media has shown a great interest in this meeting as this would strengthen the position of Philippines with the support of India. The Indian security establishment had been pressing the Indian government to play a larger role in the Asia–Pacific region in view of its growing importance. Like other nations, India too does not want status quo to be destroyed in the region. India is likely to press hard for avoiding unilateral actions in the South China Sea which could lead to tensions in the region. How strongly all the nations press the parties for the implementation of the ruling would determine to some extent the future moves of China. While so far China has refused to accept the ruling, it has also shown the willingness to discuss the issue bilaterally realising that not doing so would weaken its position further in the comity of nations. A strong and effective statement could result in checking the further militarisation of the artificial islands as assured by China at the last Summit. The nations attending the EAS has an opportunity to achieve at least this objective. While China is known for breaking its assurances, this time, it would be difficult without placing itself in a highly embarrassing situation