JOB OF UNITING NATIONS

The United Nations has 193 members, more than 30 agencies, funds and programmes, and a 40,000-strong staff. At its head, is the organization's chief administrative officer, popularly known as the world's top diplomat. In the past 70 years, there have been eight UN secretaries-general, three from west Europe, two from Asia, and one each from the Arab world, Latin America and Africa. There has never been a Muslim, a Hindu or a woman. The United Nations Charter provides an uncomplicated selection process: Article 97 cryptically provides that "[t]he Secretary-General shall be appointed by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council". This directive has been supplemented by procedures and practices such as a single nominee being recommended by the security council to the general assembly, where a simple majority is necessary for appointment, unless the assembly itself decides that it requires a two-thirds majority. The nominee must receive at least nine votes in the council, including no veto from any permanent member, consisting of the United States of America, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom. The term of office is considered five years, renewable. No one has served more than two terms, and in principle, a candidate is never from one of the big powers. The assembly, where all countries are represented, has invariably ratified the sole candidate presented to it by the council. Both the security council and the general assembly take their decisions in closed sessions. This year, the submission of a name to the assembly is expected by the end of October and the nominee takes over from Ban Ki-moon in January. The search for the successor to Ban is in full swing. Calls for transparency do not sit well on the five permanent members of the council, who have the biggest stake in working with the chief executive of the UN secretariat. The rotational principle, which should apply to this appointment, implies that the next incumbent should be from Eastern Europe, which has never had a secretary-general although it is a recognized UN regional grouping. There is opposition to any change in the rotation principle from Russia which resents the domination over the council exercised, since the end of the Cold War, by the US and its compliant allies, France and Britain. But rotation is a principle to be ignored if it suits the permanent five, and it is argued by the Western camp that the world has changed from the time when the principle was introduced, and only the qualifications of the candidate should count. The next secretary-general will be the result of a compromise between the US and Russia - a person who has not alienated either of them, or China, through past actions. For this reason, the big powers will not welcome any candidate with a high profile or a forceful personality. The current election reflects the tensions between Russia and the Western camp; Russia backs an East European woman, the director-general of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Irina Bokova of Bulgaria, while the Americans favour the Argentine foreign minister, Susana Malcorra. The security council holds a series of 'straw polls' to weigh each candidate's level of support, and to narrow the field by discouraging weaker candidates from standing. The council has held four straw polls so far in which its 15 members either "encouraged", "discouraged," or offered "no opinion". The ballots are cast anonymously and the election is conducted in secret, but the voting details are rapidly leaked. In all the four polls, António Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister and UN High Commissioner for Refugees, with a Goan wife, has taken the lead but faces portents of danger. In the latest poll at the start of September, of the 10 remaining candidates, Guterres gained 12 votes encouraging and two discouraging. If either of those two includes a state with a veto, it would prove fatal to Guterres's candidacy. The Slovak foreign minister, Miroslav Lajcak, was second with 10 encouragements but four discouragements, and the Serbian former foreign minister, Vuk Jeremic, third with nine in favour and four discouragements. Bokova fell back to fifth, and Malcorra was seventh. That the first three places were occupied by men was discouraging for some countries and advocacy groups that have pressed for a first woman at the top of the UN secretariat. With women as elected chief executives of La Francophonie, the Commonwealth and Fifa, the international football federation, and a woman candidate for the US presidency, they hoped a trend had been established. Ban himself has suggested that it would be appropriate for a woman to replace him, but hastily clarified that this was up to the member states to determine. There were still five women in the field in the fourth straw poll but some of them must surely withdraw before the next poll. The inconclusive outcome sets the stage for another one or two straw polls in September to eliminate lower-placed candidates and smoke out if any permanent member is casting a veto. A continued impasse could open the door for a dark horse, with some considering the case of Bulgaria's Kristalina Georgieva, currently the European commissioner for the budget and human resources. Once the straw poll process is over and the candidates are whittled down to a smaller number, the final stage will be marked, when only the five permanent members are given a coloured ballot paper, effectively signifying a blackball and veto power. Previous secretaries-general have tried to leave their mark on the UN. In the 1960s, Dag Hammarskjöld of Sweden was known for standing up for the independence of his office against hectoring by the Soviet Union and for initiating peace-keeping operations. After the Cold War, Boutros Boutros-Ghali of Egypt tried to promote vision statements called "An Agenda for Peace" and "An Agenda for Development", but fell afoul of the US which refused to endorse him for a second term - although it has to be said that developing countries also had reservations about his proposals. Kofi Annan of Ghana rose through the ranks of the UN bureaucracy to become secretary-general, and supported the concept of humanitarian interventions that played into the hands of Western unilateralists. He denounced as illegal the Iraq invasion of 2003 by the US-led coalition, but by then he was already into his second term. South Korea's Ban Ki-moon's current tenure has been noted for its blandness, which suits the permanent members perfectly. India will be watching the proceedings leading up to the election of the secretary-general with keen interest, although it can do little or nothing to shape the outcome. It would prefer someone who is not too proactive and would keep away from potentially embarrassing issues for India like Kashmir. It would like to have the world's top diplomat functioning from the 38th floor of the UN secretariat building in a manner supportive of UN reform, the leading aspect of which, in India's opinion, is to have an expansion of the permanent membership of the security council in order to include itself. And more generally, to have a secretary-general with whom it can communicate easily and who would be inclined to endorse discreetly India's aspiration to be a central player in international relations in future