UNREST IN ARAB WORLD-IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

UNREST IN ARAB WORLD-IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA

The ongoing protests against undemocratic regimes in West Asia and North

Africa have sent shockwaves throughout the region. Regimes, feeling the heat

after the exit of Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, have started

announcing measures to appease the people. The protests are impacting the

economy, politics and governance in these countries.

UNINTERRUPTED ENERGY SUPPLY AT A MODERATE  PRICE.

India is heavily dependent on the Gulf region for energy supplies. Any major political

crisis in the region would disrupt the oil production and supplies thus leading to an increase

in oil prices. It would be more serious if disruption in the oil supply were to take place in

the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Oil production in Libya has already been

cut by half and crude oil prices have touched $116 per barrel. India is not reliant on Libya

for energy but the crisis has created an anxiety and instability in the oil market. So far the

situation in the Gulf has not worsened to the point of threatening energy supplies but a

Libya-like situation there would certainly have serious implications for India. India’s

endeavour to maintain its current economic growth rate and its aspirations for a double

digit annual growth rate in the future are also highly dependent on uninterrupted energy

supply at a moderate market price.

NON-OIL TRADE

Apart from oil, India shares huge non-oil trade relations with these countries. India’s

non-oil trade with the WANA (West Asia North Africa) region amounted to $120.75 billion

in 2009-10.9 The total non-oil trade with the six GCC countries alone amounts to $84 billion.

Government of India, Export Import Data Bank, Ministry of Trade and Commerce. The figures do not include India’s imports of petroleum products and crude oil.

Protests in the Arab World: Implications for the Region and India.Any prolonged political crisis would certainly hinder trade between India and the region.Similarly, it would also be detrimental to the interest of Indian companies which have

 Invested in the region.

SAFETY AND SECURITY OF THE FIVE MILLION STRONG DIASPORA

The safety and security of the five million strong Diaspora in the Gulf would be a major

challenge for India. Problems would aggravate in the event of a need to evacuate nationals.

India faced considerable difficulties in evacuating the 18,000 Indian nationals in Libya.

There are 14,000 Indians in Yemen, 350,000 in Bahrain, over 380,000 in Oman and 1.42

million in Saudi Arabia. It would be a daunting challenge to evacuate such huge numbers

if a situation were to arise in the Gulf countries in particular. India has already issued

travel advisories on Libya, Bahrain and Yemen; it has advised Indians to stay indoors

and maintain a low profile.

IT IS BETTER TO DIE FOR SOMETHING THAN TO LIVE FOR NOTHING.”

The protests have left an indelible mark on the Arab world. The popular discontent in

these countries may be suppressed for the time being either through economic packages

and incentives or by liberalising political systems to some extent. But the long term

repercussions of suppressed voices would continue to resurface in the future. Arab rulers

should learn from the developments in Tunisia and Egypt and take note of the aspirations

of the people, especially of the youth. The time has come for them to evenly distribute

their national wealth and allow people to participate in the decision making process. Or

else, people will express their displeasure through protests and demonstrations because,

as was written on a placard carried by a young Egyptian protester: “It is better to die for

something than to live for nothing.”