Ruination of Ukraine is Complete: Yet Another Feather in the US Cap Major General Mrinal Suman

  The US political regime is governed by two lobbies – arms/guns and pharmaceuticals. They call all the shots and dictate policies. They are the donors with big pockets who fund all political campaigns. No legislator can ignore them. For the continued prosperity of the arms lobby, the US must remain engaged in war and hostilities, even if it has to generate conflicts and manufacture enemies. Since the end of World War II, the US has intervened or fought in over 60 countries on one pretext or the other. In the recent past, the world witnessed the destruction caused by the US in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan and Syria. Well established regimes have been destabilised and the countries have been thrown into anarchy. The US withdrew from Afghanistan in utter disgrace in August 2021. As its military could not stay ‘unoccupied’ for long, a new enemy had to be found and a new front opened. Ukraine had already been identified as a prospective sacrificial goat, and armed to the teeth to take on Russia. Provoking of Russia had been going on since the Maidan Revolution of 2014, when a puppet government was deceitfully installed by the US. Over 14,000 citizens of Russian origin were 2 butchered in the ethnic cleansing of the Donbas region during the period 2015 to 2022. To escape persecution, thousands of refugees started pouring across the border into Russia. Russia was alarmed when the US reneged on its promise not to expand NATO eastwards to the Russian borders, and declared its intent to admit Ukraine in NATO. Presence of the NATO forces at its doorstep was considered as an existential threat by Russia. It kept pleading with the world to let Ukraine remain a neutral nation, providing a much-needed buffer between the two warring groups. But the US was hell bent to use Ukraine as an expendable instrument to degrade Russia’s military prowess and dent its standing. Russia started its operations in February 2022 with the limited objective of securing its western flank by occupying the Donbas region. A secondary objective was to ‘demilitarise and de-Nazify Ukraine’ and stop the ‘genocide’ of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine, primarily by neutralising the ruthless Azov Regiment, a far-right outfit that follows neo-Nazi ideology. The Regiment had acquired notoriety for its brutal and cruel treatment of the ethnic Russian population. Incidentally, it fought fiercely during the battle for Mariupol till it was forced to surrender to the Russian forces. Russia has been pursuing its military aims with a single-minded determination and has been incredibly successful, negative propaganda by the biased Western press notwithstanding. It has captured 90 percent of the Donbas region, thereby securing its western borders. Land route has been opened to Crimea. Major port cities have been captured. Slowly and steadily, the Russian forces are moving towards Odessa, the next major objective. Odessa is a major seaport, as also a key transport hub, located in the south-west of Ukraine, on the north-western shore of the Black Sea. It is the third most populous city in Ukraine. It was founded in 1794 by a decree of the Russian Empress Catherine the Great. During the Soviet period, it was an important trading port and a naval base. Seaport complex of Odessa consists of Port Odessa, Port Pivdennyi and Port Chornomorsk. They constitute Ukraine’s most important transport hub, linking sea routes with railways, road network and oil pipelines. Odessa has been the major port for exporting food grain under the UN brokered grain export deal. As Russia felt that the deal was being misused by Ukraine to import ordnance for war, Russia withdrew from it. Ukraine’s drone attack on the Kerch Bridge (a critical lifeline to Crimea) on 17 July infuriated Putin who termed it as a terrorist activity. Odessa has borne the brunt of Russia’s fury and has been under intense shelling. Most of the port facilities have been destroyed/crippled. To prevent movement of grains through the ports on the Danube River (Reni and Izmail) to the Black Sea, Russia has rendered them unusable through repeated precision bombing. Thus, Russia has imposed a de-facto embargo on sea trade by Ukraine by dominating the Black Sea. Current State of Ukraine Area: Russia has already occupied a total of 161,000 km2 or almost 27 percent of Ukraine's territory. In case Russia advances to the Dnieper River for assured security and occupies the coastline of Odessa – as appears to be imminent – it will possess close to 40 percent of the total Ukraine landmass. 3 Population: Of the pre-war population of 34 million, only 19 to 20 million are left in the country – 14 million have left Ukraine for other European countries where they are living on dole as refugees. Around 5.3 million people have been displaced internally across Ukraine. In all, the war has displaced between 25 percent to 30 percent of the entire Ukrainian population, both within and outside Ukraine. Ukraine Refugee Situation as per the European Commission Casualties: As per various estimates, 400,000 people have been killed and an equal number have been injured or maimed for life. There are over 60,000 amputees. Hospitals are overflowing. Reportedly, Ukraine has dug 123,000 fresh graves to receive bodies. War Arsenal: Since the start of the war in February 2022, Ukraine (and NATO) has lost 480 aircraft, 245 helicopters, 549 unmanned aerial vehicles, 11,113 armoured vehicles, 1,142 multiple rocket launchers and 5,746 artillery pieces. Ukraine is proving to be the graveyard of NATO weapons. NATO is unable to provide adequate replacements. Their own stocks are running dangerously low. Economy: According to the World Bank, Ukraine's GDP declined by 29.2 percent in 2022. Inflation stood at 26.6 percent at end-2022. Poverty increased from 5.5 percent to 24.2 percent in 2022, pushing 7.1 million more people into poverty and retracting 15 years of progress. Ukraine's gross domestic product fell 10.5 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the same period a year ago. Ukraine’s economic outlook remains highly uncertain and is dependent on the duration of the war. Morale: Morale of the Ukrainian troops is extremely low. There are no new volunteers. Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 60 have been banned from leaving the country. Conscription is at its inhumane worst. Police is dragging all men to the recruitment centres, even if mentally challenged. Mothers can be seen pleading with the police to spare their sons – they know that they will never return alive. Most Ukrainians realise that they are being used as cannon fodder and have no chance of survival. Worse, they are given little/no training at all. Some are given 14 rounds to fire before being transported to the front. 4 Casualties: There are reports of dead bodies lying in the bunkers as Ukraine is unable to recover them. Surviving soldiers find it highly distressing to see their comrades’ bodies decaying without getting a decent burial. The wounded get no medical attention. In some cases, local commanders have surrendered to the Russians, only to ensure timely medical aid to their wounded comrades. Russians have been treating the surrendering soldiers with due respect and dignity. Ukraine is Doomed to Ruination It is almost certain that any future peace accord would be signed on Russian terms. Russia would never vacate the areas that it has occupied at a huge cost of resources and manpower. Donbas would certainly stay with Russia. Land bridge to Crimea and extending westward would impart strength to its southern flank. In addition, Russia is certainly going to annexe Odessa shoreline. The loss will render Ukraine a land-locked country with no access to sea routes, thereby destroying Ukrainian agricultural export infrastructure. Black Sea will become a Russian lake with consequent safety of its fleet. Once the complete shoreline is secured, Russia will link up its new Novorossiya territories with Transnistria. Thus, imparting added security to the land bridge to Crimea. Likely Post-War Scenario: Eastern Ukraine Annexed by Russia and Western Parts Seized by Poland 5 When Ukraine collapses and its armed forces cease to matter, Poland and Lithuania are likely to move into Ukraine to grab its western parts. They have been laying claims over Volhynia and the neighbouring areas which had been historically a part of the erstwhile Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth of the 17th century. It must be remembered that notwithstanding the current bonhomie, Poland and Ukraine have been sworn enemies for centuries. They have fought numerous wars and the areas under dispute have frequently changed hands. Poland will never miss an opportunity to reannex them. Before the war, Ukraine was considered the second most potent military power of NATO, next only to the US. By the time the impetuous war ends, it would have been reduced to a pale shadow of its earlier impressive status – reduced in size to half and rendered landlocked with no access to sea. Proud Ukranians have already been forced to flee to other countries and live on charity. Not all are treated with respect. Ireland has declined to give them free food and wants the refugees to pay 10 Euro for every adult and 5 Euro for every child for daily food. The refugees have no money and are crying foul and begging for dole. Ukraine is the latest victim of the US hegemony, Machiavellian policies and subterfuges to lure the unsuspecting countries into the lethal traps of its military-industrial shenanigans. Total vanquishment and destruction of Ukraine is inevitable. The US has scored yet another hit. After ruining Ukraine, the US is already looking for fresh prey for its industrial-military complex to continue to rake in billions by selling arms. In that rapacious pursuit, Taiwan appears to be the next target. It is being armed to the teeth. NATO is being extended to the Far East by roping in Japan and South Korea. Thus, another theatre of tensions is being contrived. The US will never let Taiwan live in peace with China. Remember the highly provocative visit by Nancy Pelosi in August 2022. One remembers Nelson Mandela’s unforgettable words, "What I am condemning is that one power, with a President who has no foresight, who cannot think properly, is now wanting to plunge the world into a holocaust. ... If there is a country that has committed unspeakable atrocities in the world, it is the United States of America. They don't care."