"Chinese Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment" is a comprehensive and thought-provoking report authored by P. Charon and J.-B. Jeangène Vilmer, published by the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM) under the Ministry for the Armed Forces in France. This report delves into the intricate realm of Chinese influence operations, drawing parallels to Machiavellian tactics, and provides a meticulous analysis of China's strategic efforts to wield influence on the global stage.
Case Studies and Impacts
The report
backs its analysis with case studies, demonstrating China's influence
operations in action. The South China Sea dispute, the United Nations
engagement, and economic coercion tactics are examined in detail. The authors
assess the successes and failures of these campaigns, shedding light on their
broader impact on international relations.
The
section brings out a series of case studies. The authors dissect China's
influence operations in various countries, highlighting both successes and
failures. These case studies serve as concrete examples of the strategies
discussed earlier, offering readers a practical view of how these operations
unfold in real-world scenarios.
China has effectively utilized its
strategies to sway public perception, policy decisions, and international
relations. These case studies range from economic partnerships and
investment projects to media manipulation and cultural diplomacy, offering
readers a clear picture of the breadth and depth of China's influence.
Implications and Responses
The
report doesn't merely analyze the mechanics of Chinese influence; it also
delves into the broader implications and responses from the international
community. From concerns over information warfare to diplomatic
countermeasures, the authors provide a balanced examination of how other
nations are grappling with China's Machiavellian approach.
The
authors explore the responses and countermeasures that nations can employ to
mitigate the impact of Chinese influence operations. They highlight the
importance of bolstering media literacy, enhancing transparency, and fostering
international cooperation to safeguard democratic values and national sovereignty.
The
focus js to the responses of Western democracies to China's influence
operations. The report evaluates the efficacy of different countermeasures,
ranging from increased transparency to targeted policy adjustments. By
highlighting both the strengths and weaknesses of these responses, the authors
provide valuable insights for policymakers and strategists.
Analysis and Critique:
"Chinese
Influence Operations: A Machiavellian Moment" is an exceptional piece of
scholarship that combines historical analysis, meticulous research, and
strategic insight. The authors' comprehensive approach, from tracing the
historical trajectory to dissecting contemporary case studies, offers readers a
holistic understanding of China's influence operations. The report's rigorous
research and well-structured presentation make it an indispensable resource for
policymakers, scholars, and anyone interested in understanding the intricacies
of modern geopolitics.
Chinese
Influence Operations-Some Tactical Successes but a Strategic Failure
Machiavelli affirmed that “it is much safer to be feared
than to be loved.” Yet, having read Cicero,107 he immediately added that “a
prince must nevertheless make himself feared in such a way that he will avoid
hatred, even if he does not acquire love; since one can very easily be feared
and yet not hated.”108 This is precisely what Beijing has failed to do. Chinese
influence operations have been met with tactical successes. China is able to
constrain private companies, such as airlines or hotel chains, to name their
destinations differently (“Taipei, China”), or the NBA to apologize for the
tweet of a club official. It also demonstrated an ability to inflict high
financial damages (when it blocked the website of The New York Times in 2012,
as a retaliation for an article Chinese authorities did not like, the group’s
stock market value fell by 20% in twenty-four hours). Additionally, from fear
of retributions, many companies refrain from publishing ads in media outlets
critical of China, which impoverishes these outlets. Yet, despite these little
victories, the offensive has been a strategic failure. China’s influence in the
world has led to a backlash against it that is both widespread and growing.
This is not a new trend: China remains its own best enemy in terms of
influence. It can be seen in Africa.
The BRI also faced numerous setbacks in the past couple
of years, with the same complaints (“Chinese try to take everything they can,
without paying attention to the employees or the local companies. They act as
if we were a colony.
Now, with its “wolf warrior” diplomacy, its information
manipulations and brutal methods, Beijing has definitely altered its image.
Xi Jinping, affirmed that the pandemic could provoke the
strongest wave of anti-Chinese feelings in the world since Tian’anmen in 1989,
and that it could also feed into the resistance against BRI projects and invite
Washington to increase its financial and military support to Asian allies –
increasing the risk of confrontation.
Several affairs, including the case of espionage against
the African Union headquarters, the “hostage diplomacy” used to coerce Canada
and a growing number of other countries, the revelations about the
concentration camps for Uyghurs (“China Cables”)114 and the management of the
Hong Kong crisis have all contributed to the deterioration of Beijing’s image
after Xi Jinping came to power. However, this evolution is relative: it is
among the developed economies, especially Western states (Europe and North
America) and their allies (Japan, South Korea), that China’s image has
deteriorated significantly. It remains correct, and is even improving in
developing countries. This polarization reflects Beijing’s double discourse,
which “plays on confrontation with the West and seduction of the South.
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