IS CANADA INDIA'S NEWEST ENEMY- Gen NITIN P GADKARI PART 2

 Is the Timing of the Announcement Significant?

 Many would wonder why Justin Trudeau would risk announcing the suspected allegations of an Indian hand in Nijjar's killing immediately after a successful G20 meeting in New Delhi. Nijjar was killed in June 23, so why now? It could have been before or a little later, too. It is hard to conjecture the timing, but it must be significant. Any reason would be speculation or an intelligent guess.

 One of the principal reasons could be Justin Trudeau is fast losing popularity in Canada. As per a survey conducted by an agency, Justin Trudeau was voted as the worst Prime Minister of the last 55 years in Canada by 30 % of Canadians. As per another research firm, The Angus Reid Institute, Justin Trudeau's disapproval rating in September 2023 had risen to a dismal 63%. Given this fact, Justin Trudeau could be preparing himself for another early election. The next general elections should be before 30 October 2025. Still, as per grapevine in Canada, it could be held in the fall of 2023. A ploy like what he has employed could very well be for the domestic audience to make himself a worthy prime minister for the fourth time. It's a known fact in Canada that Justin Trudeau has gotten shoddy treatment whenever he has visited India. Even during the G20 meeting, he was treated as a pariah while all diplomatic niceties were extended. He skipped the main dinner function hosted by President Murmu, and to add salt to his wounds, his plane developed a snag. It could not take off for an unprecedented 36 hours. Justin Trudeau was waiting to strike to regain some lost pride.

 A second possible reason could be a Western conspiracy to keep Prime Minister Modi in check. The unprecedented success of the 20 meeting and its rising popularity amongst the Global South countries has not gone unnoticed in the West. India's ability to pull off a declaration without the Russian condemnation of the Ukraine war has not appealed to the Western alliance, be it NATO or the EU. The countries who have expressed concern about the Canadian allegations are the UK, Australia and the US. All have expressed concern at the serious allegations made by Canada. None have questioned Justin Trudeau if there is any evidence to prove his allegations; why have they not been shared before making the allegations? Sources suggest that the Canadian prime minister had spoken to the heads of these countries, garnering support for Canada. That they have not openly criticised Prime Minister Mr Modi is possible due to a lack of conclusive evidence with the Canadian authorities. Yet a charge levied by Mr Justin Trudeau goes in their interests to keep Mr Modi in check. The West is miffed at India's stance on the Ukraine war and its continued oil diplomacy with Russia. What better way to get even?

 Who Loses More

In this part, the article looks at which of the two countries lost more due to this fresh diplomatic and political standoff. Justin Trudeau is slipping in the popularity ratings back home. His nearest rival, the CPC (Conservative Party of Canada), has taken the lead. As per the latest ratings, more Canadians favour a majority conservative party rule instead of a liberal minority in coalition with the NDP. The conservative party leader Pierre Poilievre is a more popular Prime Ministerial candidate than Justin Trudeau (32 to 17%). All the above is before the current India backlash by the liberals in the Canadian parliament. Would Trudeau lift his sagging image by 'Witch Hunting' is anyone's guess? Yet it seems unlikely that his latest theatrics will impress the voters, as it lacks support at home and abroad. Most Op-Eds (Opinion Editorials) in Canada are critical of Trudeau for levying such severe charges without concrete proof, which he has not shared in the open.

The aspect which matters most for the Canadians is their sagging economy. The trade figures between India and Canada seem to have an even balance between exports and imports. In 2022, the bilateral between the two countries stood at 8 billion US dollars, with both Imports and Exports at roughly 4 billion US dollars. What was on offing would trouble Canada more than it would bother India. A bilateral Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was in the offing, and discussions have continued since 2022. The CEPA was expected to bring a GDP gain of up to 5.9 billion dollars US to Canada by 2035. Earlier this month, the CEPA was put on hold due to the freeze in Indo-Canadian relations. While India is a sought-after partner for free trade deals by most European and South Asian countries, Canada is still juggling the pandemic's after-effects.  600 Canadian companies have invested in India as against India's 30. Canadian pension funds have a cumulative investment of 55 billion US dollars in the Indian markets with a plan to up it to 300 billion. Canada stands to lose substantially by the deferment of the CEPA.

The travel advisory by the Indian government to students and tourists not to travel to Canada in light of the anti-India sentiments existing in some parts of the country, like Brampton, Ontario, would further dampen Canada's revenues. Since the matter is still to peak, it would take a while before the correct estimates of numbers in terms of loss or gain are made public. It might appear on the face of it that Canada stands to lose more even if it makes short-term gains in politics. Fortunately, there are no military fallouts of this feud.

Prognosis

It is hard to see the current standoff letting up in the near future. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has staked his political career on his anti-India tirades. Such a big gamble must have some basis in the liberal party's future schemes. That he has political compulsions of siding with the pro-Khalistan party, the NDP, to stay in power is a known fact. But would a leader stake the future of his party for the sake of a four-year term is the conjecture that political pundits have to ponder. On the side of the Government of India, it can be stated that parties opposed to the ruling BJP alliance, despite their vast differences, have supported the government in fighting the Canadian government's allegations. Congress has supported it, and so has the ruling party in Punjab: the Aam Adami party. Congress had no choice as the Khalistan support in Canada was first raised by Mrs Indira Gandhi to the then Prime Minister of Canada, Mr Pierre Trudeau, the father of Justin Trudeau. Rajiv Gandhi's government bore the aftermath of the Kanishka bombing. Experts believe India has been soft on Canada in denouncing its pro-liberal policies favouring the Khalistanis. The latest freeze in relations would give ample opportunity for India to throw all it has got against the Khalistan interests in Canada, India, and Pakistan. It's unlikely that the Modi government would exonerate the liberal party and their Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, in a hurry. Canada would have to think hard about where it stands vis-a-vis India if any amends are to be made. And if that means voting out Justin Trudeau and his party out of power, then it would be a good beginning