Managing Escalation with Nuclear Adversaries Like China The Need for a Theory of Victory

 

The United States faces the urgent need to develop a theory of victory that outlines

 how it can win a potential war with China without triggering a nuclear conflict. Historical crises that unfolded under the threat of nuclear weapons offer valuable lessons for navigating such a scenario.

Denial Strategy: Overwhelming Force

In the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the U.S. would respond with overwhelming force, aiming to destroy enough Chinese aircraft and ships to compel China to back down. This approach, known in military circles as "denial," is intended to deny China any hope of victory. However, China's significant military buildup has complicated this strategy. In numerous wargames conducted over the past decade, Chinese forces have often outperformed U.S. forces. As former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense David Ochmanek, now a senior researcher at RAND, noted, the Chinese side has occasionally "cleaned our clock." This has prompted some U.S. strategists to consider alternative approaches.

Imposing Costs: The Goldilocks Challenge

One such approach involves imposing severe costs on China beyond the immediate battlefield of Taiwan. The U.S. could, for instance, establish a naval blockade to cut off Chinese trade or bomb Chinese factories supporting the war effort. The goal would be to convince Chinese leaders that the costs of continuing the war are too high, making it in their best interest to cease fighting.

However, this strategy presents what RAND researchers have termed the "Goldilocks challenge." According to a recent study commissioned by the U.S. Department of the Air Force, the challenge lies in imposing costs that are high enough to deter China without provoking catastrophic escalation, such as a retaliatory missile strike on U.S. soil. The costs must be carefully calibrated—too low, and China may simply absorb them as a cost of war; too high, and the situation could spiral toward nuclear conflict.

Denial as the Best Option

Despite the complexities of the Goldilocks challenge, researchers concluded that the best strategy remains denying China any prospect of victory from the outset. While this approach faces significant challenges, the U.S. retains key advantages, such as its submarines and long-range missiles, which could make a Chinese invasion of Taiwan prohibitively dangerous.

Even if China crosses the line into conflict, a denial strategy offers an "exit ramp." As senior policy researcher Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga explains, this approach provides the best chance to see if Beijing will halt its military campaign after its initial efforts fail.

The Unpredictability of Escalation

The Goldilocks challenge highlights the fundamental uncertainty in managing escalation. As researcher Forrest E. Morgan noted, it is not a matter of secret knowledge or predetermined thresholds. Even Chinese President Xi Jinping may not know how he would respond in the heat of the moment. This unpredictability underscores the critical need for careful and strategic planning in any confrontation with a nuclear-armed adversary like China