Chinese Influence Operations-Some Tactical Successes but a Strategic Failure

 

Machiavelli's Influence on China's Tactics

Machiavelli once stated, “It is much safer to be feared than loved.” He also added, after studying Cicero, that “a prince must make himself feared in such a way that he avoids hatred, even if he does not acquire love." This subtle balance between fear and respect is what Beijing has failed to achieve in its influence operations. While China has experienced some tactical successes, it has not managed to avoid generating widespread resentment.

Tactical Successes: Coercion of Corporations

China has demonstrated its ability to exert pressure on private companies, compelling them to comply with its demands. For instance, international airlines and hotel chains have been forced to label destinations like “Taipei, China” rather than acknowledging Taiwan’s sovereignty. Even major corporations like the NBA have issued public apologies after officials criticized China. In 2012, when The New York Times published an article disfavored by the Chinese government, China responded by blocking the newspaper’s website, causing the company’s stock market value to drop by 20% in just 24 hours. Additionally, many businesses avoid placing ads in media outlets critical of China, fearing economic retribution, further weakening the independence of the press.

Strategic Failures: Global Backlash

Despite these tactical wins, China’s broader influence strategy has been a strategic failure. Its aggressive posture has triggered widespread and growing resistance. This backlash is not new—China has long been its own worst enemy when it comes to building influence. In Africa, for instance, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has faced numerous setbacks in recent years. Complaints have surfaced about China's exploitative behavior, with local businesses and workers feeling neglected, as if they were treated like colonial subjects.

Wolf Warrior Diplomacy and the Erosion of China’s Image

Beijing’s "wolf warrior" diplomacy—a more combative and assertive foreign policy—has further damaged its international standing. Its use of disinformation, coercion, and brute force has tarnished its once positive image. Xi Jinping himself acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to the strongest wave of anti-China sentiment since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. He also warned that this growing resentment could undermine BRI projects and prompt the United States to increase military and financial support for its Asian allies, raising the risk of confrontation.

High-Profile Scandals and Reputational Damage

Several high-profile incidents have further harmed China’s global reputation since Xi came to power. The espionage case involving the African Union headquarters, China’s “hostage diplomacy” tactics used to pressure Canada and other countries, revelations about Uyghur concentration camps (such as the "China Cables"), and the heavy-handed response to protests in Hong Kong have all contributed to the deterioration of Beijing's image, particularly in the West.

Polarized Perceptions: West vs. Developing Nations

However, China’s reputation has not suffered uniformly across the globe. Its image has deteriorated significantly in developed countries, particularly in Europe, North America, Japan, and South Korea. In contrast, China’s standing in developing countries remains relatively positive and, in some cases, has even improved. This reflects Beijing's dual approach: confrontation with the West and seduction of the Global South.

Conclusion

While China has achieved some tactical successes through coercion, its overall influence strategy has failed to win lasting international support. Instead, its aggressive methods have provoked a growing backlash, particularly in developed nations. The future of China's global influence may hinge on whether it can find a more balanced approach between fear and respect, as Machiavelli advised centuries ago