Evolution of Chinese Influence Operations

 Historically, China sought to be admired and respected rather than feared. Unlike Russia, which has often used coercive methods, China initially focused on projecting a positive global image and promoting its cultural and political attractiveness. Beijing's approach emphasized seduction, aiming to shape international norms while preserving its reputation. For the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), maintaining "face" and national prestige was of utmost importance.

However, in recent years, China's influence operations have undergone a significant shift. While Beijing continues to promote itself on the global stage, it has increasingly adopted methods of infiltration and coercion, moving away from purely soft-power tactics. This transformation is reflected in a more assertive and sometimes aggressive approach to foreign influence, drawing comparisons to Russian strategies. The CCP's stance now seems to align more closely with Machiavelli’s principle from The Prince: "It is much safer to be feared than loved."

Tougher Influence Methods

This shift represents a clear departure from China's earlier tactics. The CCP's influence operations now range from benign public diplomacy to clandestine and more malign interference activities. The increasing use of coercion and infiltration by China marks a "Machiavellian turn" in its foreign policy, indicating a willingness to exert control through fear when necessary.

Key Areas of Chinese Influence Operations

This report examines the full spectrum of China’s influence operations. It begins by outlining key concepts and the actors involved, such as Base 311 of the People’s Liberation Army, which plays a central role in propaganda and psychological warfare. It then explores China's influence across various sectors, including its actions toward:

• Diasporas: Efforts to control and influence overseas Chinese communities.
• Media and Diplomacy: Manipulation of narratives and leveraging diplomatic ties.
• Economy and Politics: Use of economic leverage to gain political influence.
• Education and Think Tanks: Infiltration of educational institutions and intellectual circles.
• Information Manipulation: Disinformation campaigns, particularly on social media.

The report also delves into specific cases such as Taiwan, Singapore, Sweden, Canada, and the operations targeting Hong Kong protesters in 2019. One notable example was the CCP’s attempt to label COVID-19 as an American creation in 2020.

Strategic Assessment: Tactical Wins but Strategic Failures

Despite some tactical successes, China’s shift towards coercion has largely been a strategic failure. While Beijing has managed to achieve certain short-term goals, its aggressive stance has often alienated other nations, leading to increased suspicion and resistance to its global ambitions.

Conclusion

China’s evolution from soft power to more coercive influence tactics highlights a fundamental change in its foreign policy. While it still seeks to shape global standards and retain its appeal, Beijing’s willingness to employ fear and coercion marks a significant break from its earlier strategies. This "Machiavellian turn" reflects the CCP’s determination to expand its influence at any cost, even at the risk of damaging its long-term strategic interests.

The report, produced by the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM), founded in 2009 and affiliated with the French Ministry for the Armed Forces, provides an in-depth analysis of these changes in China's influence operations.