No one wants to be the bad cop against the Houthis. They fear it will be seen as anti-Palestine
The Vantage Take January 12, 2024 18:53:56 IST
Vantage | How a divided world allows Houthis to hold global trade hostage
A Houthi fighter stands on the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released in November 2023. Houthi Military Media/Handout via Reuters
The Red Sea, or, one should say, the Houthi backwaters, has been the surprise package of Israel’s war. Iran is not doing anything. Hezbollah is not retaliating, but Yemen’s Houthis are doing a lot. These are ragtag militants fighting a civil war. But how are they holding global trade hostage? It is because the world is divided. While most countries agree the attacks should stop, they won’t say it out loud.
The UN Security Council passed a new resolution on Wednesday, which demanded an immediate end to Houthi attacks. As many as 11 members backed the resolution, and the remaining four — Russia, China, Algeria and Mozambique — abstained.
“I would like to once again underscore that this resolution cannot be seen as legitimising the actions in the Red Sea of the so-called coalition made up of the US and its allies,” said Vasily Nebenzya, Russian Federation’s permanent representative to the UN.
“The draft resolution remains ambiguous on several key issues, which makes us worry that it might not be able to achieve the intended effect or even lead to negative consequences,” said Zhang Jun, China’s permanent representative to the UN.
Here is the problem: They won’t send warships, nor would they condemn Houthis or back a resolution, but they won’t veto it either.
It means no one wants to be the bad cop against the Houthis. They fear it will be seen as anti-Palestine because the Houthis claim to be fighting for Palestine. It’s not just Russia and China; Arab countries are also guilty here, especially Jordan and Egypt.
Egypt earns around nine billion dollars annually from the Suez Canal. It is a mainstay of their economy. If ships don’t use the Red Sea, Egypt will lose that money.
Same with Jordan, the Red Sea is vital for their trade; it carries 33 percent of their imports and 54 percent of their exports.
Yet both countries are silent; they would much rather suffer losses than speak out, so the Houthis simply carry on. Even the military muscle hasn’t scared them. India leads the list; the navy has deployed 10 warships in the Red Sea plus the Arabian Sea region.
The US has deployed three; the UK has also deployed three; Sri Lanka is planning to send one; France, Italy, and Spain have one each; and Pakistan has two or three. Put together, around 23 warships are in the region.
But the Houthis don’t care. On Tuesday, they took things up a notch; some 21 drones were fired at vessels in the Red Sea. It was the largest Houthi attack yet. Thankfully, none of them hit their target. They were shot down by US and UK warships.
But you can’t shoot down every drone, nor can you escort every ship, so what more can these countries do? Well, some experts say, hit back. Don’t just defend ships, but go on the offensive. Both the US and the UK have now hinted at that.
“We’ve warned them. We put ships in the Red Sea. They’ve got a choice to make. And the right choice is to stop these attacks. And as I said again, I’ll say three times now, they’ll bear the consequences for failure to do so,” said National Security Spokesperson John Kirby.
“So we call on Tehran, but also directly on the Houthis; this absolutely must stop. There will be consequences if it doesn’t. And they have, I’m afraid, failed to heed the warnings issued on the 3rd of January,” said British Defence Minister Grant Shapps.
But threats alone may not work. Minor reprisals won’t deter the Houthis; we have already seen that. Last month, the UK sank three Houthi boats; they also killed 10 of their fighters. But days later, the Houthis were back. So small responses won’t work, and for big responses, there is no appetite. If you launch a major attack on the Houthis, it could trigger a wider war, and Hezbollah or Iran may join in. So, maybe good old diplomacy is the solution.
Iran has close ties with the Houthi rebels. Most of their weapons come from Iran, including some of the drones they are firing into the Red Sea. So why not pressure Tehran to rein them in? It’s the logical solution, but for that, we need to be on the same page.
You can’t be half-hearted like China, Russia and the Arab World. You must admit, it is a global problem. Some 12 percent of global trade passes via the Red Sea. So it is not a regional issue but a global one.
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