The efficacy of Operation Rising Lion hinged significantly on the tight joint planning and execution between the IDF and the Mossad intelligence agency, a culmination of years of preparation.
Introduction
The recent conflict between Israel and Iran, particularly Israel's "Operation Rising Lion," offers several crucial lessons for India across strategic, military, and economic domains. Israel's preemptive offensive, characterized by sophisticated multi-domain operations, precision decapitation strikes, and unprecedented covert intelligence actions, severely degraded Iran's ability to retaliate effectively. The Iranian counterstrike, while significant in scale, was largely blunted by Israel's robust air defenses, augmented by preemptive disruption. For India, facing complex multi-front challenges and a dynamic regional security environment, Israel's operational model underscores the imperative for enhanced proactive deterrence, deep intelligence integration, modernization of special operations forces, and accelerated indigenous development of advanced military technologies, particularly in drone and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.
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1. Israel's Strategic Motivation and Preemptive Attack
Israel firmly believes that if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, it could pose an existential threat to Israel. For this reason, Israel keeps a close watch on Iran and all its allied nations, periodically analyzing emerging threats and taking action against them. Intelligence indicated that Iran was on the verge of acquiring the capability to produce nine to ten nuclear bombs within the next three months. Therefore, Israel launched an immediate attack to destroy this capability.
For this, credit must first be given to Israel's political leadership, which made crucial decisions for Israel without regard for global opinion. If such decisions go wrong, they can create a significant threat, and many global superpowers might turn against you. Therefore, one must possess the capacity to face the consequences that arise.
2. Israel's Strategic Aggression: Crippling the Iranian Counterstrike
Israel's success in mitigating the Iranian counterstrike was not merely a defensive triumph but a testament to a meticulously planned, multi-layered offensive strategy that combined precision kinetic strikes with deep intelligence and covert operations.
2.1 Decapitation Strikes: Targeting Command, Control, and Leadership
A cornerstone of Israel's strategy was the execution of decapitation strikes, aimed at achieving "overwhelming shock and disruption" within Iran's military and political leadership. Destroying the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) Air Force bunker and eliminating key commanders created immediate "shock and disarray" in Iran's response, neutralizing an immediate Iranian counterstrike.
Israel has formulated a long-term plan to neutralize Iran's capabilities, and they act periodically according to this plan. The most crucial aspect of this plan is to target military and technological leadership within Iran, thereby diminishing their capacity for military decision-making and technological advancement.
2.2 Covert Operations: Mossad's Role and Human Intelligence (HUMINT)
The efficacy of Operation Rising Lion hinged significantly on the tight joint planning and execution between the IDF and the Mossad intelligence agency, a culmination of years of preparation. Israel's operational doctrine heavily relies on subterfuge and clandestine operations.
Mossad's covert actions demonstrated an unprecedented scope and audacity. Agents established a secret drone base deep within Iranian territory, near Tehran. These drones were activated overnight, striking surface-to-surface missile launchers that were specifically aimed at Israel.
Israel has spread its network of spies extensively within Iran. These agents or Israeli spies operate covertly. This requires immense courage, and often, if a spy is caught, a heavy price must be paid. Despite potential losses, Israel has consistently continued its efforts to expand its spy network. As a result, Israel has established a spy network inside Iran that is as good as, or even better than, the one Ukraine created in Russia. This provides them with crucial human intelligence (HUMINT) support.
Furthermore, vehicles carrying sophisticated weapons systems were clandestinely smuggled into Iran. These systems proved crucial in neutralizing Iran's air defenses, thereby granting Israeli planes air supremacy and unparalleled freedom of action over Iranian airspace.
2.3 Air Superiority and Precision Targeting
The conventional component of Operation Rising Lion was marked by a massive air assault. For the first time in history, 200 fighter jets took off in unison, executing precise strikes on predetermined targets, many in locations never before hit. Over 330 munitions were dropped on approximately 100 targets across Iran.
A key objective, beyond targeting nuclear facilities, was the systematic destruction of Iranian aerial defense systems in western Iran. This included the elimination of "dozens of radars and surface-to-air missile launchers". This critical objective was significantly facilitated by the preemptive degradation of Iran's air defenses through Mossad's covert operations, which had already cleared the path for Israeli aircraft.
2.4 Strategic Deception
In this operation, Israel also largely deceived the United States. The U.S. President was talking about negotiating on nuclear bombs, and it was understood that these negotiations would last 60 days. It was shown that negotiations were ongoing, but at the same time, Israeli planes, their spies, and agents were carrying out operations in Iran. This allowed Israel to achieve great success in deceiving Iran. This can also be called strategic deception.
3. The Iranian Counterstrike: Capabilities, Execution, and Limitations
Despite Israel's extensive preemptive actions, Iran launched a significant counterstrike, demonstrating its intent and certain capabilities.
3.1 Scale and Nature of the Retaliation
Iran's retaliation involved the launch of multiple waves of drones and ballistic missiles against Israel. Specifically, "dozens of UAVs and close to 100 ballistic missiles" were aimed at Israeli civilian centers. The targets included Israel's commercial capital, Tel Aviv, and other central Israeli cities such as Rishon Lezion.
The impact of these strikes resulted in damage and casualties. Iranian missiles damaged homes and led to the deaths of two individuals in Rishon Lezion, with 19 others sustaining injuries. In Tel Aviv, a hospital treated seven people wounded by a second Iranian barrage, most of whom had light injuries, while an earlier wave of projectiles had wounded approximately three dozen individuals.
3.2 Effectiveness of Iranian Munitions and Israeli Interception
Israel's multi-layered aerial defense systems demonstrated a high rate of success in intercepting the incoming Iranian projectiles. "Most of the ballistic missiles were intercepted by aerial defence systems," indicating robust defensive capabilities, including the Iron Dome and other more advanced, albeit expensive, systems. However, the IDF acknowledged that "this defence, sadly, is not hermetic," confirming that some missiles did manage to penetrate and cause damage. The United States also played a critical role, with its ground-based air defense systems in the region assisting in shooting down Iranian missiles.
Iranian limitations were also evident. While Iran possesses a "vast arsenal of ballistic missiles stored in underground silos," unconfirmed reports suggest that Israel may have successfully targeted tunnel exits and launch infrastructure, potentially limiting Iran's ability to mobilize these weapons in the short term
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