The Surface of Change
At first glance, it seems as if those who have long opposed
Indian democracy are now engaging with it. However, a deeper analysis reveals
more complex and potentially concerning motives.
After a decade-long gap, Jammu and Kashmir is finally
holding elections. Historically dominated by political families such as the
Abdullahs and the Muftis, the region’s political scene is witnessing a
shift—one that might have far-reaching implications. Independent candidates
backed by Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir (JIJK) are now playing an
influential role. This shift represents a strategic recalibration by separatist
groups that once rejected India's democratic process.
From Militancy to Politics: A Tactical Shift
This new development is particularly notable for its
participants. Former militants and separatists linked to groups like Hizbul
Mujahideen are now using the language of electoral democracy. The move from
armed militancy to election participation marks a tactical shift. Instead of
outright rejecting India’s political system, these groups are working within it
to pursue their long-term goals.
Why the Shift? The Role of Jamaat-e-Islami
Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, an Islamist organization with a
presence across India, has a complicated history in Jammu and Kashmir. Its
regional offshoot, Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu and Kashmir, has been deeply
intertwined with separatist movements and militancy, particularly through its
association with Hizbul Mujahideen.
In 2019, following the Pulwama attack, the Indian government
banned JIJK for promoting terrorism and secessionism. This ban was extended in
2024, leaving JIJK with limited options. Supporting independent candidates
appears to be a way for them to regain influence and pursue what militancy
could not achieve.
Separatist Participation in Elections: A Strategy of
Survival
For decades, separatist leaders like Syed Salahuddin, the
head of Hizbul Mujahideen, denounced Indian elections as illegitimate, often
advocating for Kashmir's independence or its merger with Pakistan. However,
after the Indian government's revocation of Articles 370 and 35A in 2019, the
separatist movement lost significant momentum. Facing fewer options, groups
like JIJK have now decided to engage in the electoral process.
The current strategy focuses on nominating candidates who
present themselves as advocates of social reform, while still harboring
long-term separatist ambitions. This is not an abandonment of their earlier
goals but a pragmatic adjustment to ensure their survival.
A Calculated Move: Seeking Legitimacy through Democracy
This new political engagement is a way
for banned organizations like the Jamaat to regain relevance. By supporting
independent candidates, these groups can extend their influence while avoiding
direct confrontation with the Indian state.
A Language Shift: Appealing to Delhi’s Democratic
Framework
Interestingly, many former separatists are now framing their
objectives in terms more compatible with New Delhi’s democratic system. For
instance, Salim Geelani, a veteran separatist leader, has joined the People's
Democratic Party (PDP). This shift reflects a broader recognition that Indian
democracy is now the only viable option for political engagement in Kashmir.
Journalists and analysts like Aditya Raj Kaul argue that the
crackdown on terror funding and the significant reduction in violence have led
to a growing realization among Kashmiri Muslims that their future lies within
India. However, other commentators, like columnist Sunanda Vashisht, caution
that this shift should not be mistaken for a change of heart. Many separatists
may be using democracy to regain political legitimacy for personal and
organizational gain.
Electoral Prospects: Who Has a Chance?
Among the independent candidates, figures like Irfan Ahmad
Shah are seen as having a strong chance of success. However, many candidates
backed by Jamaat may only succeed in cutting votes from established parties
like the National Conference (NC) and PDP.
For example, Talat Majeed, a Jamaat-backed candidate in
Pulwama, is facing strong competition from PDP and NC. Similarly, Ajaz Ahmad
Mir, a former PDP leader, is contesting as an independent with Jamaat support.
These elections are likely to test the strength of this new political approach
by the separatist factions.
The Global Playbook: Insurgents Turning Politicians
This shift is not unique to Kashmir. Around the world,
insurgent groups often transition into political entities when armed conflict
becomes unsustainable. By participating in elections, they can gain legitimacy
and access resources that allow them to further their agenda within a legal
framework.
They are now
using India’s democratic institutions and judiciary to push their agenda in a
more covert manner. This is part of a broader geopolitical strategy influenced
by foreign actors like Pakistan’s ISI and organizations such as the Muslim
Brotherhood.
A Tactical Embrace of Democracy
Kashmiri separatists have not abandoned their long-term
goals of secession or Islamization. Instead, they are employing a more nuanced
strategy, using democratic participation as a means to regain influence. This
is a tactical embrace of democracy, not a genuine commitment to the Indian
Constitution or its values.
While the shift represents a new chapter in Kashmir’s
political history, it is crucial to remain vigilant about the long-term
implications of this evolving strategy.
