Rising Houthi Threats Imperil Red Sea Chokepoints, Prompting Global Shipping Concerns

Efforts are underway to safeguard freedom of navigation, particularly in the Red Sea's critical maritime routes and chokepoints like the Bab-El Mandab. Recent Houthi attacks on various ships have raised concerns about the security of this vital sea passage. Since 2015, the conflict between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudi Arabia has demonstrated the Houthis' ability to disrupt oil production and infrastructure, prompting a reassessment of security measures in the Gulf countries.

 

Iran's support for the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah complicates the situation. Despite efforts to broker a Riyadh-Tehran rapprochement, tensions persist. The Houthis, aligned with Hamas, have targeted Israeli ships and those of its supporters, escalating the risk of a broader conflict. The international community is responding with an increased naval presence in the Red Sea, led by the United States.

 

The U.S. Defense Secretary, during a visit to Tel Aviv, announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, a ten-nation maritime task force aimed at countering Houthi attacks from Yemen. This initiative, potentially under the umbrella of the 39-member Combined Maritime Force, emphasizes the need for collective action due to the international implications of Houthi actions.

 

Shipping lanes in the Red Sea, including the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, carry a significant portion of global sea-borne crude and facilitate 40% of Europe's trade to Asia and the Middle East. Recent incidents have led companies like BP and Maersk to redirect shipping away from the Red Sea, causing increased insurance premiums and transportation costs. Estimates suggest a potential rise of over 40%, impacting oil prices and global supply chains, already strained by reduced maritime piracy.

 

The geopolitical contestation in the crowded Red Sea and Gulf of Aden involves major powers such as the U.S., Russia, China, India, and Europe. The Houthis' selective targeting of Russian and Chinese ships adds complexity to the situation. The threats are genuine, requiring international cooperation, as witnessed during the peak of anti-piracy campaigns.

 

While the U.S. has attempted to create regional security architectures, its focus on the Indo-Pacific has hindered progress. Efforts to foster Israel-GCC joint naval exercises faced setbacks due to the Israel-Hamas war and U.S. support for Palestine, creating tensions that may stall normalization and collaboration in the near term.