Pakistan’s Proxy War in Jammu & Kashmir: A Deepening Threat

 

1. Escalating Terrorism in J&K: A Recent Surge

In the last 15-20 days, Jammu and Kashmir has witnessed a concerning escalation in terrorist activities, with nine attacks targeting non-local laborers, marketplaces, security forces, and civilian infrastructure. This upsurge includes several high-profile attacks in the Jammu region over the past two to three years, even claiming the lives of highly trained Indian special forces. This pattern raises a critical question: What is Pakistan’s endgame?

2. Conventional Theories Fall Short

Most analysts, veterans, and journalists tend to offer conventional explanations, attributing Pakistan's actions to its desire to keep the Kashmir issue alive post the abrogation of Article 370, internationalize the conflict, or balance its internal power dynamics. However, these perspectives may overlook deeper, more complex motivations that drive Pakistan's proxy war in the region.

3. Ground Reality: Infiltration and Foreign Militants

During a recent visit to various parts of Kashmir and the Jammu region, I observed significant infiltration by foreign terrorists. While exact numbers are hard to ascertain, estimates suggest there are at least 120 foreign terrorists operating in these areas. These individuals are highly trained, some with combat experience alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan, including Pakistani Army regulars and special forces operatives. Armed with M4 assault rifles equipped with advanced night vision and telescopic sights, they pose a significant challenge to Indian forces, who are still reliant on outdated AK47 and INSAS rifles with limited night combat capabilities.

4. Declining HUMINT and Shifting Tactics

The Indian special forces are facing substantial challenges due to a decline in human intelligence (HUMINT). Since 2016, there has been an over-reliance on technological intelligence (TECHINT), resulting in a degraded HUMINT footprint. Additionally, flawed policing practices and poor leadership have further eroded the quality and quantity of intelligence. Meanwhile, Pakistan has revamped its approach, recruiting new overground workers (OGWs) who operate on a need-to-know basis, reducing their exposure and risk of capture.

5. TECHINT and Local Support: An Alarming Combination

Foreign terrorist groups have adapted their communication strategies, either going radio silent or using sophisticated Ultra sets that remain undeciphered. Contrary to popular belief, local support for these terrorists persists. The narrative that Pakistan has lost its ground support in Kashmir is misleading and contributes to a false sense of security in Delhi. Reports suggest that bureaucratic channels are promoting a narrative that the Article 370 abrogation has ended militancy, creating complacency within the Indian establishment.

6. Emerging Threats from Transnational Terrorist Groups

Alongside Pakistan-backed groups, there is growing support for transnational terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda, ISIS-K, and the Muslim Brotherhood. The younger generation in Kashmir, with a worldview shaped by religious extremism, is more susceptible to radicalization. Communities traditionally seen as pro-India, like the Gujjars, Bakarwals, and Paharis, are also showing signs of disenchantment, potentially strengthening the terror ecosystem.

7. Pakistan’s Strategic Diversion

Despite its economic woes and internal challenges from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch rebels, Pakistan is increasing its proxy activities in Kashmir. This could be a tactic to prevent India from exploiting Pakistan's internal vulnerabilities or as a retaliation for alleged Indian support to anti-Pakistan groups in Balochistan. Additionally, recent communication intercepts suggest a shift in targets, with instructions to focus on Hindu civilians, pilgrims, and tourists—indicating an attempt to stoke communal tensions in India.

8. Interoperability Among Terrorist Groups

There is evidence of increased cooperation among various terrorist factions. For instance, M4 rifles typically used by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) cadres have been recovered in Kashmir's Bandipora, a region usually dominated by The Resistance Front (TRF). This interoperability complicates counter-terrorism efforts and challenges existing theories about infiltration routes and operational areas.

9. Assessing Pakistan’s Motivations: Multiple Scenarios

The renewed militancy could be driven by multiple strategic objectives:

• Sustaining Militancy: To retain influence in Kashmir post-370 abrogation.
• Internal Distraction: Diverting Indian focus away from Pakistan’s internal strife.
• Retaliation: Responding to perceived Indian interference in Pakistan’s internal conflicts, especially in Balochistan.
• Coordinated Large-Scale Attacks: There are indicators that Pakistan may be planning a significant coordinated attack, possibly leveraging foreign terrorists to incite civil unrest in J&K and beyond.

10. The Role of External Actors

The involvement of external actors cannot be ruled out, especially considering recent disengagements between India and China. There are growing signs of anti-India elements being nurtured in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and even in Western countries, suggesting a deeper conspiracy to destabilize India. This raises concerns about a larger, externally-supported offensive against Indian interests.

11. Strategic Silence in Kashmir: A Warning Sign

Interviews with locals in Kashmir reveal a worrying “strategic silence.” Young Kashmiri students hinted at an ominous undercurrent, stating that when Kashmiris are silent, it often precedes major upheaval. This sentiment underscores the need for Indian agencies to broaden their perspective beyond traditional counter-terrorism operations and consider the larger geopolitical dynamics at play.

12. Conclusion: A Need for a Comprehensive Strategy

The recent spike in terrorist activities in J&K is a clear indication of Pakistan’s evolving strategy. Indian agencies must adopt a holistic approach, integrating HUMINT with TECHINT, and be vigilant of the broader geopolitical shifts. The complacency driven by perceived gains after Article 370 abrogation could lead to severe strategic setbacks. The need of the hour is a proactive and comprehensive counter-terrorism strategy that addresses both immediate threats and long-term security challenges.