Manipur Crisis: A Complex Threat - II
Security Implications
Security in the Northeast cannot be looked at in isolation from any particular state. The history of the North East from the Indian independence is full of strife and insurgent movements. There is an insurgency in all seven states of the northeast. The reasons can be traced to the British, who gave these states the status of ‘Excluded Areas’, giving them a belief that they were not inclusive of the Indian identity. When the British left India, giving independence in 1947, these areas expected to get autonomous status, if not complete independence. Nothing like that happened, and they were all made inclusive of the Indian Union. This inclusion caused heartburn in many politicians and activists in these states. They demanded independence, and when it was not forthcoming, they resorted to violence to secure their political aims. Consequent to the British legacy, insurgent groups in all seven states asked for either independence or autonomy. The oldest amongst them are the Naga insurgent groups. Mr Phizo formed the NNC (Naga National Council) in 1946, even before Indian independence.
At one time, 70 big and small rebel groups were active across the seven sister states. Out of the seven states, three states: Meghalaya, Assam, and Tripura, border Bangladesh, and the other four border Myanmar. Today a mere 15 are involved in insurgent activities. Understanding the role of the two neighbouring countries named above is essential. When 15 out of the 70-odd groups were banned by the government of India, declaring them unlawful or terrorist organisations, their cadres took shelter in bases in either Myanmar or Bangladesh or both. Noteworthy was the ability of the insurgent groups operating in these states to align with each other against a common enemy: the Indian state and the Indian security forces. This alignment resulted in sharing each other’s bases, providing information and the ability to operate in each other’s areas, thus making quick getaways after strikes. While the ULFA (United Liberation Front of Asom) could operate from Arunachal Pradesh to bases in Bangladesh, NSCN- Issac Muivah & Khaplang (National Socialist Council for Nagaland -IM &K) operated seamlessly from North Sagaing district in Myanmar through the border across Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura into Bangladesh. They strongly connected with the PLA (People Liberation Army) and the UNLF (United National Liberation Front), both Manipur-based groups. For the sake of brevity of the article, the bases and the insurgent groups operating from Bangladesh will not be discussed any further. Because the ULFA is no more a force, and its leaders are in Jail. So is the case with insurgent groups in Meghalaya and Tripura. By 2017 it was declared by the Border Security Forces of both nations; there was no more presence of Indian insurgent groups inside Bangladesh. This victory is due to India’s excellent relations with the Bangladesh government under Sheikh Hasina Wazed in the last ten years.
Map of Myanmar showing the regions bordering India’s North East
The security concerns for all states bordering Myanmar remain a cause for worry, despite India’s attempt to improve ties with Myanmar. Since 2010 India has improved its ties with Myanmar, the military government or the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. These efforts led to cooperation between the two militaries, and pressure from both sides resulted in the insurgent groups either dissipating or going deeper inside Myanmar. One of the examples of the joint operation was ‘Operation Sunrise’ in 2015. It was reflected in reducing violent incidence in border states from 2012 onwards. (Refer to Table 1 at the end of the article) This decline was attributed to better cooperation between the two militaries of India and Myanmar.
The open border with Myanmar (16 Km of the border between the two countries was open and allowed free access to the population on either side. This limit now stands annulled due to the problems in Myanmar) has contributed to the ethnic strife in all the border states in India which border Myanmar. The problems persisted as persecution of minorities in Myanmar brought an influx of refugees into India. The reverse was also true of migration from India during times of strife. The civil population, caught between the crossfire of the security forces and the insurgent groups, found shelter in safe camps across the borders. It is alleged that the influx of refugees has changed the demographic structure in the hill districts in India, especially after the military coup in Myanmar in 2021. Since then, many refugees have crossed the border into India and Bangladesh. Most of them have found shelter in the hill districts. This migration has caused the current strife in Manipur. The Meitei allege that the new refugees, under pressure from the Kuki-Zomis and Nagas of the hill district, are encroaching on their land in the valley and the forests. The land, therefore, has become the prime reason for the dispute. They also allege that on the encroached land thrives crops of poppy which are used to make drugs.
However, the recent military coup in February 2021 in Myanmar has resulted in a setback. Border management has suffered as civil war rages inside Myanmar. Many new EAOs (Ethnic Armed Organisations) have surfaced to fight the Myanmar military junta (Tatmadaw). These are now called PDFs (People’s Defence Forces). The Tatmadaw is stretched and fatigued leaving little space to fight the insurgency on their borders or destroy camps existing on Myanmar’s soil near the Indian border. Couple this with the fact that there is a common ethnic bond between the Kuki-Zomi and Naga tribes in Myanmar and those in India; any retaliation against these ethnic tribes in Myanmar sends hordes of refugees into the Indian hill states of Manipur and Nagaland. When insurgency was at its zenith, most Manipur-based groups had their bases close to the Manipur border inside Myanmar in South Saigaing districts because connectivity and infrastructure at the Manipur border were better than in other places. If the current violence in Manipur has escalated, an outside hand is an obvious guess. The evil hand could have come from the old cadres of the Manipuri insurgents’ groups in Myanmar, seeking action in Manipur to up the ante. Since the violence is ethnic in colour, the chances that some of these elements belong to the Kuki-Zomi or Naga insurgent groups cannot be ruled out. Time and again, as peace returns to the strife-torn state, a new violent incident comes to light, and the perpetrators are unknown entities.
There are equal numbers of Meitei-dominated rebel groups (PLA, UNLF, PREPAK (P)) as there are Kuki-Zomi and Naga groups (KUKI-ZOMI National Front, Manipur Naga Revolutionary Front (MNRF)) rebel groups in Manipur. Earlier, they had shared an amicable equation with each other and the NSCN (IM & K) groups. It is hard to guess their current orientation towards the latest violence in Manipur. There would be no reason to believe that the insurgent groups would start an ethnic war in Manipur now. With insurgency ebbing in the region, their first priority would be regrouping and preparing for a long battle with the Indian state.
Drugs Trade
The Golden Triangle
If the direction of the high court to the state government to take up a case for the Meiteis to be included in the Schedule Tribe List with the Centre was a trigger, the primary explosive was in the drive of the Manipur government to clear the illegal occupation of the Reserve Forests (RF) and the Protected Forests (PF). For long, the Manipur government has been jostling with the tribes in the Hills to vacate forest land under illegal occupation. Having given orders and multiple warnings, the government ultimately acted. The story behind the state government’s adamant stand on illegal occupation is rooted in the drug trade flourishing in North East and Manipur.
Readers may be aware of the ‘Golden Triangle’, a three-point hub in South East Asia that thrives in drug trade like opium and brown sugar. At the apex of this triangle are Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos.
Raw opium from Poppy plantations in northern Myanmar would transport mule loads of opium to transit points near the border with Thailand and Laos. From there on, the opium moves to many destinations across South East Asia and other places. Opium also flowed into India through the porous border, and it became a profitable business as many youths were frustrated due to the lack of opportunities and took to drugs. Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland youth were the first in line and became habitual consumers. As mentioned earlier, the border routes from Myanmar concentrated more towards Manipur due to better road infrastructure. The border town of Moreh in Manipur became the exchange hub for the drug trade. It was here in December 2021 that 500 crores of drugs were seized from a house in Moreh from a Myanmarese drug trafficker. However, much before this seizure, due to the disturbed situation in Myanmar, the drug lords encouraged poppy production inside India on the hills of Manipur and Nagaland, where the farmers sought cash crops for sustenance. Poppy proved to be the ideal bet. The refugees from Myanmar found a living in poppy cultivation in the forest areas. Most of these cultivations were illegal. It was a double whammy for Manipur authorities. It increased drug usage among its youth and led to illegal poppy cultivation. The golden triangle was getting extended into the Indian North East. Manipur from ‘Receiver’ became a ‘Producer’ of opium and brown sugar. The Churachandpur district in the southern tracts of Manipur was the worst drug-affected area. Churachandpur was where the violence started first in Manipur on 03 May 23.
Another effect of drug abuse was increased HIV cases due to infected syringes. Manipur houses 0.24% population of the country but has 8% of the total HIV cases. The BJP government of Manipur launched a ‘War on Drugs’ drive in 2018. In this fight elimination of poppy cultivation was an essential step. According to government statistics, 14,135 acres of illicit poppy cultivation were destroyed in the hills from 2017 to 2021. The seizure of forest land has to be viewed in light of this development in Manipur. When the government’s drive took away the easy cash crop alternatives from the poppy cultivators, they opposed it, resorting to demonstration and violence. They argued that the Manipur government legislation of removing illegal occupation of forest land passed in their assembly violated the correct procedure, as it should have met the approval of the Manipur Hill Area Committee council as per the Schedule Matters of Article 371- C of the Presidential order of 1972. The war on drugs was an election promise of Chief Minister Biren Singh in 2017. The implementation of the promise has come to haunt him. Such a predicament of the Chief Minister indicates the complex and sensitive issues that haunt the state. It is hard to do a balancing act.
Conclusion
Manipur violence from 03 May 23 has bucked the trend of reduction in violence in the North East. It has seriously threatened the state government, the central government, and the security forces. If the history of insurgency in the state is any measure to go by, the situation is grievous now. It is on the cusp of exploding once again. It is a cauldron in which all the explosives elements are brewing simultaneously. The ethnic differences between the Meiteis and the Hill tribes: Kuki-Zomi and the Nagas. The scheduled tribe status to the Meiteis, the removal of illegal occupation of forest land, the stoppage of poppy cultivation on the hills and the inability to provide an alternative to earning through cleaner cash crops. The influx of refugees from a civil war-torn Myanmar state. The lurking presence of old insurgent groups waiting to take advantage, the refugee outflow into neighbouring states. Finally, opportunist politicians waiting to grab power by creating violence. All these are explosive elements simmering in the Manipur cauldron. When it reaches critical mass and explodes, is anyone’s guess? It requires deft handling and concerted efforts of all parties interested in peace in Manipur to bring the temperature down. If their number is more than that inciting violence, Manipur has a hope for peace. But if this number dwindles, bad times will await this beautiful state.
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