Russia Ukraine War-Continuing the conflict in Ukraine poses a significant domestic threat to Putin's leadership.

 Continuing the conflict in Ukraine poses a significant domestic threat to Putin's leadership.

Prolonging the war in Ukraine poses a significant domestic risk for Putin, as it exposes cracks in his overwhelming authority and may ultimately force him to withdraw from the conflict on unfavorable terms. The Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has emerged as a direct challenge to Moscow's control. After coercing Moscow into an amnesty agreement, Wagner seized control of two Russian cities and even threatened to march towards Moscow itself before the deal halted their advance. Despite Moscow initially accusing the group of treason, all charges were dropped, and the Wagner troops are expected to regroup in western Belarus, thanks to negotiations facilitated by Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus.

While it cannot be definitively ruled out, it is possible that NATO has had a hand in these developments. The sudden rebellion of Putin's own militia, which was once loyal and deployed in Crimea and Syria, suggests a possible involvement of external forces. Prigozhin's statement, denouncing the invasion of Ukraine as unnecessary and driven by the career ambitions of Russian generals, further undermines Putin's position. Prigozhin, who was last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don, where his fighters took over military facilities, remains a free man and could potentially orchestrate future problems for Putin. Prigozhin, a former criminal groomed by Putin for shadow wars in Syria and Mali, publicly denied his involvement in establishing the Wagner Group, which thrived on its ability to operate discreetly—a trait that endeared him to the Russian leader. However, Prigozhin's outsider status and animosity towards Valery Gerasimo, the head of the Russian military, and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, made him an outlier among Putin's inner circle, who mostly hailed from his hometown of St Petersburg. The tensions between Prigozhin and the military escalated after the Wagner Group suffered a significant defeat in the bloody Battle of Bakhmut, where many Wagner fighters recruited from Russian jails perished. These internal rivalries reflect Putin's mode of operation. Prigozhin also held a grudge against the Russian military for withholding ammunition from his troops.

There is speculation that Putin had set up a virtual "trip wire" to prevent a coup, with all the actors involved countering each other. Some analysts argue that Putin's interest in prolonging the war in Ukraine primarily benefits the defense corporations financing the operations, with the Wagner Group alone having amassed around $50 million in booty. However, extending the conflict in Ukraine carries significant domestic political risks for the entire Russian Federation, including Putin himself. The Wagner Group could potentially regroup in Belarus and continue their covert operations from there. The overall situation is murky and could deteriorate into a civil war within Russia. Although Wagner currently lacks an air force, it may acquire one in due course. Unregulated elements like these might serve the short-term ambitions of autocratic leaders, but they can cause immeasurable damage to Russia's political stability. European NATO countries undoubtedly hope to see Putin face the consequences of his actions, while the US's provision of planes, tanks, and howitzers to Ukraine would strengthen their ability to sustain the war and potentially spell the end for Putin and his ambitions. Notably, the Russia-Ukraine conflict deviates from traditional warfare, with limited use of air power and drones. Iranian-supplied attack drones, if employed by the Wagner Group, could pose significant challenges to Russian armor and ground troops along the border. Countries like Turkey are eager to capitalize on the profitable market for selling assets such as Bayraktar drones.

Given the nature of ground operations expected, involving limited distances and maneuvers, the air situation may resemble what transpired in Nagorno-Karabakh between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Drones would likely play a crucial role in future.