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Wednesday 24 April 2024

#SecurityScan 82: Chinese involvement in Iranian Missile, Drone Assault on Israel & much more

 Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai applauded the joint efforts of the DRG and BSF, highlighting the operation"s pivotal role in ensuring security ahead of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

This article is a summary of important events that have taken place in last one week affecting, India's national security .
 
#COUNTERING CHINESE MULTI DOMAIN , GREYZONE, HIGH BREED WARFARE
 
 
Chinese Hand Evident in Iranian Missile and Drone Assault on Israel
 
 
Iran's recent attack on Israel, utilizing missiles and drones, showcased a significant Chinese influence in its weaponry. This assault, however, was effectively countered by a joint effort from Israel, the US, and the UK, resulting in the interception of 99 percent of the 300 projectiles launched.
 

NB Security Scan 82 
 
 
The response to Iran's attack was facilitated by long-standing surveillance efforts by the US and UK, who have meticulously monitored China's military advancements over the years. This vigilance enabled them to anticipate the capabilities of the "kamikaze" drones employed by Iran and predict the trajectories of the ballistic missiles.(Lessons for India)
 
 
Key Indicators of Chinese Involvement:
 
 
China has been a prominent supplier of military equipment to Iran, including anti-ship missiles, cruise missiles, fighter jets, tanks, and anti-tank guns.
 
It played a pivotal role in bolstering Iran's missile technology following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, transferring crucial guidance systems and providing technological support.
 
The "Shahed" armed drone, utilized in the recent attack, features an engine manufactured by Beijing Micropilot UAV Flight Control Systems, a clear indication of Chinese involvement.
 
Furthermore, Iran's largest missile production facility near Esfahan owes its existence to China's assistance, highlighting a longstanding collaboration in missile development.
 
The interception of Iranian missiles and drones involved a sophisticated defense network deployed by Israel, supported by US ground stations in West Asia, fighter jets, and naval vessels stationed in the Mediterranean Sea. The precision-guided weaponry utilized by Iran bore the mark of Chinese technology, with components sourced from leading Chinese manufacturers.
 
 

Learning from the Gray: China's Gray Zone Warfare and its Implications for India

China's use of gray zone warfare against Taiwan serves as a valuable case study for India, which faces similar challenges on its borders with China. Here's how India can learn and adapt:

Understanding Gray Zone Warfare:

  • Blurring the Lines: Gray zone tactics operate below the threshold of open conflict, employing actions like frequent military drills, incursions into disputed territory, and economic coercion. They aim to achieve strategic objectives without triggering a full-scale war.
  • Adapting to the Strategy: China's approach against Taiwan involves:
    • Military Intimidation: Frequent incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and maritime exercises signal China's military might and challenge Taiwan's control.
    • Economic Pressure: China leverages its economic clout to influence Taiwan's behavior.
    • Information Operations: Disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks aim to sow discord within Taiwan and manipulate public opinion.

Lessons for India:

  • Recognizing the Threat: India must acknowledge the potential for China to employ similar tactics on the Indo-Chinese border. This includes analyzing past patterns of Chinese incursions and information operations.
  • Strengthening Deterrence: A robust military presence along the border, coupled with regular exercises and improved infrastructure, deters Chinese aggression. Modernizing its military capabilities and forging closer defense partnerships with other regional powers are crucial.
  • Information Warfare Preparedness: India needs a robust counter-propaganda strategy to counter Chinese disinformation campaigns and strengthen domestic resilience.
  • Economic Diversification: Reducing dependence on China for trade lessens vulnerability to economic pressure tactics. Diversifying trade partnerships and developing domestic manufacturing capabilities are key.
  • International Cooperation: Building strong relationships with like-minded countries allows India to present a united front against Chinese assertiveness. Collaborating on regional security initiatives and maritime domain awareness strengthens regional stability.

Challenges and Considerations:

  • Managing Escalation: Responding to gray zone tactics requires careful calibration to avoid unintended escalation. Clear communication of red lines and proportionate responses are essential.
  • Domestic Consensus: Building a national consensus on security issues and resource allocation for defense spending is crucial for a unified response.

Conclusion:

By learning from China's gray zone tactics against Taiwan, India can develop a comprehensive strategy to safeguard its territorial integrity and national interests. A proactive approach that combines military deterrence, economic resilience, information warfare preparedness, and international cooperation will be critical in navigating the complexities of China's gray zone strategy

Monday 22 April 2024

Unification of Taiwan by China by using grey zone Warfare strategies

Grey zone warfare refers to tactics employed by states to achieve their strategic objectives without resorting to direct military confrontation. China has indeed been employing various grey zone strategies in its efforts to achieve the unification of Taiwan. Some of the key strategies being used include:

1. Economic coercion: China utilizes its economic leverage to isolate Taiwan diplomatically and economically. This involves pressuring countries and international organizations to limit their engagement with Taiwan, thereby undermining its sovereignty.

2. Political influence operations: China engages in propaganda campaigns and political influence operations to shape international perception and support for its stance on Taiwan. This includes exerting pressure on multinational corporations to adhere to the "One China" policy and discouraging political recognition of Taiwan.

3. Cyber operations: China conducts cyber operations aimed at espionage, disruption, and influence targeting Taiwan's government, military, and civil society. These operations seek to gather intelligence, sow discord, and undermine Taiwan's capabilities.

4. Military intimidation: China regularly conducts military exercises and patrols near Taiwan to intimidate and coerce Taipei. These actions serve to demonstrate China's military prowess and readiness to use force if necessary.

5. Legal warfare (lawfare): China employs legal tactics and international law interpretations to challenge Taiwan's sovereignty and legitimacy on the global stage. This includes blocking Taiwan's participation in international organizations and legal proceedings.

6. Proxy operations: China supports and exploits proxies, such as cybercriminals and disinformation networks, to conduct operations against Taiwan's interests covertly.

The success of these strategies varies depending on factors such as international response, Taiwan's resilience, and China's capabilities. While China has achieved some diplomatic victories in isolating Taiwan and increasing pressure on its government, Taiwan has also managed to maintain a degree of international recognition and support.

In the coming days, China may intensify its grey zone warfare efforts by:

Increasing cyber operations targeting critical infrastructure and information systems in Taiwan.

Expanding economic coercion through trade restrictions and investment manipulation.

Heightening military maneuvers and exercises near Taiwan to test its defenses and gauge international reactions.

Enhancing political influence campaigns to undermine Taiwan's democratic institutions and sow internal divisions.

To counter China's grey zone warfare tactics, Taiwan and its allies, particularly the United States, may adopt the following strategies:

1. Diplomatic outreach: Taiwan can strengthen diplomatic ties with like-minded countries and international organizations to counter China's isolation efforts and garner support for its sovereignty.

2. Enhanced defense capabilities: Taiwan should invest in its defense capabilities, including cybersecurity, intelligence, and asymmetric warfare capabilities, to deter aggression and mitigate the effectiveness of Chinese coercion.

3. Information operations: Taiwan and its allies can conduct counter-propaganda and information campaigns to expose China's malign activities and defend against disinformation and psychological operations.

4. Legal and diplomatic advocacy: Taiwan can leverage international law and diplomatic channels to challenge China's attempts to undermine its sovereignty and legitimacy, seeking legal remedies and support from the international community.

5. Economic resilience: Taiwan should diversify its economy and reduce dependence on China, thereby minimizing the impact of Chinese economic coercion and creating leverage in negotiations.

6. Military cooperation: The United States and other allies can enhance military cooperation with Taiwan through arms sales, joint exercises, and defense agreements to bolster Taiwan's defense capabilities and deter Chinese aggression.

Overall, effectively countering China's grey zone warfare requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach that combines diplomatic, economic, military, and informational elements to defend Taiwan's sovereignty and deter Chinese coercion


एक ऐतिहासिक उपलब्धी बुद्धिबळ विश्वातील अत्यंत प्रतिष्ठेची खडतर स्पर्धा जिंकण्याचा चमत्कार गुकेश ठरला विजयी

https://youtube.com/shorts/ObCwifOJsHk?si=u867KQwG5ZdITfpV 


भारताच्या दोम्माराजू गुकेशने वयाच्या अवघ्या १७व्या वर्षी कँडिडेट्स ही बुद्धिबळ विश्वातील अत्यंत प्रतिष्ठेची आणि खडतर स्पर्धा जिंकण्याचा चमत्कार केला. या विजयामुळे बुद्धिबळ जगज्जेतेपदाच्या लढतीमध्ये विद्यमान जेता चीनचा डिंग लिरेनशी टक्कर घेण्याचा त्याचा मार्ग मोकळा झाला. गुकेश हा आजवरचा सर्वांत युवा कँडिडेट्स जेता ठरला. डिंग लिरेनशी सरशी झाल्यास तो बुद्धिबळाच्या इतिहासातील सर्वांत युवा जगज्जेताही बनू शकेल. त्याच्या या अविस्मरणीय कामगिरीविषयी…

सुरुवातीची आव्हाने…

स्पर्धा सुरू होण्याच्या आधी दोन घटक गुकेशच्या दृष्टीने प्रतिकूल होते. तो या स्पर्धेत सर्वांत लहान (१७ वर्षे) होता. कँडिडेट्ससारख्या महत्त्वाच्या स्पर्धेमध्ये अनुभव हा घटक अनेकदा निर्णायक ठरतो. निव्वळ युवा ऊर्जा एका टप्प्यापर्यंत साथ देऊ शकते. ती महत्त्वाची असतेच. पण स्पर्धेच्या अंतिम टप्प्यात इतर घटकांचा विचार करण्याची परिपक्वता आवश्यक असते. ती वयानुरूप वाढते. दुसरा प्रतिकूल घटक होता रँकिंगचा. एकूण आठ बुद्धिबळपटूंमध्ये गुकेश २७४३ एलो गुणांसह सहावा होता. त्याच्यापेक्षा अमेरिकेचे फॅबियानो करुआना (२८०३) आणि हिकारू नाकामुरा (२७८९), रशियाचा इयान नेपोम्नियाशी (२७५८) या तीन खेळाडूंकडे संभाव्य विजेते म्हणून पाहिले जात होते. नेपोम्नियाशी हा दोन वेळचा कँडिडेट्स जेता आहे. हे तिघे आणि गुकेश अशा चौघांनाही १४व्या म्हणजे अंतिम फेरीत जेतेपदाची संधी होती. त्यात गुकेशने बाजी मारली हे विलक्षण आहे. अंतिम फेरीत गुकेशने नाकामुराला बरोबरीत रोखून ९ गुणांपर्यंत मजल मारली. दुसरीकडे नेमोप्नियाशीविरुद्ध विजयाची संधी करुआनाने दवडली आणि त्यांचा डावही बरोबरीत सुटला. त्यामुळे करुआना, नाकामुरा आणि नेपोम्नियाशी यांना प्रत्येकी ८.५ गुणांपर्यंतच मजल मारता आली आणि गुकेश विजेता ठरला.

आनंदचा वारसदार…

कँडिडेट्स स्पर्धा ही गेल्या काही वर्षांमध्ये महत्त्वाची ठरू लागली, कारण या स्पर्धेत विजेता ठरणारा आणि ठरणारी बुद्धिबळपटू विद्यमान जगज्जेत्यांचे आव्हानवीर बनतात. भारताचा महान बुद्धिबळपटू विश्वनाथन आनंद यालाच आतापर्यंत ही स्पर्धा जिंकता आली होती. आनंदने अर्थातच पुढे जाऊन अनेकदा जगज्जेतेपदही मिळवले. त्याने यापूर्वी २०१४मध्ये कँडिडेट्स स्पर्धा जिंकली आणि तो त्या वेळच्या जगज्जेत्या नॉर्वेच्या मॅग्नस कार्लसनसमोर आव्हानवीर बनला. दरम्यानच्या काळात भारतीय बुद्धिबळपटूंनी बुद्धिबळ विश्वात लक्षवेधक कामगिरी करण्यास सुरुवात केली होती. आनंदपासून प्रेरणा घेऊन भारत बुद्धिबळातील महासत्ता बनेल, असे गेली अनेक वर्षे बोलले जात आहे. पण आनंदनंतर कोण, या प्रश्नाचे उत्तर चटकन देता येत नव्हते. कारण अनेक गुणवान बुद्धिबळपटू उदयाला आले, तरी त्यांच्यापैकी आनंदप्रमाणे जगज्जेता कोण बनेल, या उत्तराची प्रतीक्षा होती. अवघ्या दहा वर्षांत एखादा बुद्धिबळपटू कँडिडेट्स जिंकून जगज्जेतेपदापासून एका पावलावर येईल, असे नक्कीच वाटले नव्हते. गुकेशने ती प्रतीक्षा संपवली.


INDIAN DEMOCRACY IS THRIVING AND KICKING

What often eludes global media's grasp when it comes to understanding India's democracy is its robustness amidst its scale and complexity. The Indian state has admirably upheld the rule of law while steadfastly maintaining constitutional values. Those quick to prophesy the demise of Indian democracy often find themselves unwittingly entangled in partisan agendas.

India's independent institutions, spanning from the judiciary to the Election Commission, stand as bastions of integrity, transcending the daily din of political rhetoric. Presently, as the world witnesses the spectacle of the world's largest democratic exercise, it's essential to comprehend its magnitude. With a staggering 969 million voters, exceeding the combined electorates of several prominent nations, including the United States and Russia, India's democratic machinery dwarfs even the most technologically adept Western democracies. Deploying over 5.5 million electronic voting machines across 1.05 million polling stations, India's electoral process is a testament to the resilience required to navigate through its vast geographical and socio-economic diversity.

Unfortunately, the global media often fails to grasp the intricacies of Indian democracy, leading to flawed assessments. A glaring example is the disproportionate scrutiny applied to India compared to nations facing graver democratic challenges. Mexico, for instance, ranks higher on democracy indices despite rampant political violence, including the targeted killings of mayoral candidates. Similarly, Mexico's Press Freedom Index surpasses India's despite being one of the most perilous countries for journalists.

Commonly employed phrases like "democratic backsliding" and assertions of "shrinking freedom of expression" seem misplaced in the Indian context. India's electoral landscape remains dynamic, with both ruling and opposition parties experiencing victories and defeats in state elections regularly. Moreover, claims of dwindling freedom of expression ignore the cacophony of diverse opinions prevalent in traditional and digital media, as well as the lively discourse on social platforms.

India's independent institutions, exemplified by the judiciary and the Election Commission, continue to operate with integrity, as demonstrated by recent rulings and impartial enforcement of electoral conduct standards. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's inclusive approach, extending honors to leaders across the political spectrum, reflects a commitment to transcending partisan divides. His government's recognition of figures from diverse ideological backgrounds underscores a broader ethos of national unity.

Critiques alleging a stifling of political opposition overlook the competitive nature of India's political arena. Accountability measures targeting corruption and tax evasion are not indicative of democratic erosion but rather a commitment to upholding the rule of law. Unlike some Western democracies, where politicians face legal consequences for wrongdoing, India's judiciary remains vigilant in maintaining constitutional principles.

In essence, Indian democracy thrives amidst its challenges, buoyed by a steadfast adherence to the rule of law and constitutional values. Those prematurely lamenting its demise inadvertently serve partisan agendas rather than engaging with the nuanced realities of Indian democracy


Gukesh Secures Victory in Candidates: Rising Star Emerges Without Reliance on Chess Engines to Challenge Ding Liren at World Championships

Hailing from Chennai, 17-year-old Gukesh has etched his name in the annals of chess history by clinching victory in the Candidates tournament, thus earning the distinction of being the youngest contender ever at the World Chess Championship. Yet, what sets him apart from other teenage prodigies worldwide?

If there lingered any skepticism, the emergence of Indian teenage prodigies stands undeniable in the present era. D. Gukesh, aged 17 and hailing from Chennai, not only became the second youngest player ever to grace the esteemed Candidates tournament but also scripted history as the youngest victor of the event. This triumph also secures his position as the youngest participant in the upcoming World Chess Championship. His pivotal draw against Hikaru Nakamura in the final round sealed this remarkable feat, albeit fortune smiled upon him with a last-minute draw between Ian Nepomniachtchi and Fabiano Caruana, propelling him to the title.

 Throughout his nascent career, Gukesh has consistently courted historic achievements. He attained the title of India's youngest grandmaster at a mere 12 years, seven months, and 17 days, falling short of the world's youngest by a scant 17 days. Last year, he ascended past the five-time world champion Viswanathan Anand to claim the apex position in India's chess rankings after a hiatus of 36 years. Now, he adds another illustrious accolade to his burgeoning list of accomplishments.

 Amidst the frequent emergence of teenage prodigies from India, Gukesh's journey in the sport deviates slightly from the norm. Deliberately sheltered from the influence of chess engines until surpassing a rating of 2500, his upbringing stands as a departure from conventional methods. In an era where engines redefine players' preparation strategies, Gukesh's approach embodies a unique, albeit risky, departure from the norm.

 Vishnu Prasanna, the architect behind Gukesh's unconventional training regimen, acknowledges the gamble inherent in their decision. Their strategy aimed to refine Gukesh's calculation precision, intuition, and assessment skills, eschewing the reliance on engines to foster a clearer understanding of the game. Despite uncertainties, their experiment bore fruit, evident in Gukesh's proximity to claiming the title of the world's youngest grandmaster.

 Beyond methodology, Gukesh's unparalleled drive and unwavering dedication set him apart. His unwavering commitment to his craft, evident from a tender age, manifests in an unyielding pursuit of excellence. Collaborating with Vishnu since the age of 11, Gukesh harbored ambitions of ascending to the pinnacle of chess, envisioning himself as a future World Champion and world number one.

 Moreover, Gukesh's readiness to embrace discomfort underscores his single-minded pursuit of success. Eschewing formats like blitz and rapid, he prioritizes classical chess and over-the-board events, demonstrating a willingness to undertake arduous tasks such as physical conditioning and early mornings. His relentless pursuit of improvement underscores an obsession with mastering the game, epitomizing his unrelenting quest for greatness.

Sunday 21 April 2024

1965 - An Inside Story -from a book by RD Pradhan, Former Home Secretary ,*Why India Quit When it Was Winning the 1965 War?*PART 2

 

*Road to Tashkent*



With the US disinterested in the conflict and the UK showing its true anti-India and pro-Pakistan colours, it was left to Russia to play honest broker.



It was after some initial hesitation that both India and Pakistan accepted the Russian offer. Ayub Khan later said that Pakistan went to Tashkent as it did not want to risk a veto by Moscow.



There was another reason for Pakistan’s eagerness for talks. According to Pradhan, “The continued presence of Indian troops on the east side of the Ichhogil canal, facing Lahore city, was hurting Pakistan’s pride.” The heat was clearly on Islamabad.



Before leaving for Tashkent, Shastri – who was hero-worshiped by Indian soldiers – had promised his victorious troops that he would not return the land captured from the enemy after so many sacrifices. But after six days of talks, Shastri proved once again that Indians are bad negotiators.He gave away everything.



Was Shastri feeling the pressure from the international community? Most likely not, but perhaps he felt – like his successor Indira Gandhi after the 1971 war – that showing leniency towards Pakistan would buy its goodwill.



*Mystery of Shastri’s Death*



If you were Shastri, you would dread having to face the Indian soldier back home. Hundreds of them had died while capturing the strategic Haji Pir pass, which if India had kept, would have forever nullified Pakistan’s advantage in Kashmir.



On the night of January 10, 1966, the diminutive Prime Minister but a giant among men died of a heart attack. It was his fourth cardiac seizure and was likely triggered by his anxiety at having to face an irate public and having to look into the eyes of his jawans – soldiers – whose hopes he had dashed.



There have been all sorts of conspiracy theories but the reality is that none of the major countries benefitted from his death. Russia had scored a spectacular diplomatic coup, America fully supported the Tashkent Agreement, and Pakistan was happy to get its land back.



That the Indian Prime Minister died of a heart attack comes from a most unlikely source. Shortly after Mikhail Gorbachev’s liberalisation policies in 1991, Soviet Land magazine in India published an account by an ex-KGB officer.



According to the former intelligence agent, the KGB was spying on both the Indian and Pakistani delegations in order to find out how much each country was willing to yield during the negotiations. When Shastri started getting a seizure, the KGB was listening but decided not to alert his aides because that would give away their game and lead to a diplomatic showdown with India.



*Prelude to Tashkent*



Having dissected what transpired at the negotiating table, we need to discuss the prelude to Tashkent.



Although Pakistan was on the verge of being trounced – unlike in 1971 and 1999 when it really got hammered – India generously agreed to a ceasefire after repeated pleas from the major powers.



Why did India stop fighting when it had Pakistan reeling? Why did Chavan and Shastri, who swatted away western pressure and gave a free hand to the Indian military, cave in?



The problem was army chief Jayanto Nath Chaudhuri. The Kolkata-born general came from an affluent background and had become army chief purely on the back of family connections and pure luck. He was elevated following the resignation of another Sandhurst-educated general, Pran Nath Thapar, the army chief of the 1962 War.

Chaudhuri’s mentors were the Sandhurst educated British generals – who had utterly failed before the Germans and Japanese during World War II – and predictably he also lacked war fighting qualities. “He was so good on paper that Chavan often wondered how good he would be in warfare,” writes Pradhan.



Chavan mentions in his war diary that Chaudhuri would frequently lapse into depression. Each time the Indian army suffered a setback, the general would walk into the Defence Minister’s room, and Chavan had to give him a pep talk. Chaudhuri so completely lacked courage that Chavan often forced him to visit the front and personally take stock.



Pradhan writes, “On September 20 when the Prime Minister asked Chaudhuri whether India could expect to gain if the war continued for a few days more, he informed the PM that the army was coming to an end of its ammunition holdings and could not sustain fighting for much longer. Chaudhuri advised acceptance of the ceasefire proposal. It was later discovered in overall terms only 14-20 per cent of the Indian Army’s ammunition stock had been used up. At the moment of our greatest advantage the army chief’s non-comprehension of the intricacies of the long-range logistics deprived India of a decisive victory.”



In contrast, Pakistan had expended 80 per cent of its ammo. It had also lost 250 of its latest US-supplied tanks.



Chaudhuri was also criticised for his lack of daring. When the Pakistani cities of Sialkot and Lahore could have been easily taken after the dash and bravery shown by Indian troops, Chaudhuri told Shastri: “We must move with the caution and wisdom of an elephant. We will take them in God’s good time.”



In fact, when the Pakistan Army attacked in the Khem Kharan sector in Punjab, Chaudhuri ordered the Army Commander Harbaksh Singh to withdraw to a safer position.The commander refused, and what followed was the Battle of Assal Uttar – the greatest tank battle since Kursk in 1943. The Indian counter attack on the night of September 10 was so ferocious that by the morning they had knocked out 70 Pakistani tanks.

But what the Battle of Assal Uttar will be memorable for are the 25 enemy tanks found abandoned with their engines running and wireless sets on. It was the perfect metaphor for the plight of the Pakistan Army.



Had India kept its head, today we’d have a lot more to celebrate.

1965 - An Inside Story -from a book by RD Pradhan, Former Home Secretary ,*Why India Quit When it Was Winning the 1965 War?*PART 1

In May 1964, Indian Defence Minister Yashwantrao Chavan made a visit to the Pentagon, the HQ of the American defence department. Chavan, who was trying to rapidly modernise the Indian military, requested the Americans to sell India the F-104 Starfighter – the most advanced jet fighter of that era.

Although the US had supplied the F-104 and the F-86 Sabres in large numbers – virtually free of cost – to Pakistan, India’s request was rebuffed in an extremely crude manner.

In his brilliant little book, ‘1965 War: The Inside Story’, former Maharashtra chief secretary RD Pradhan narrates what US Defence Secretary Robert McNamara told Chavan: “Mr. Minister, your Air Force is like a museum. I wonder whether you are aware of the variety of aircraft in your Air Force. You are still operating with Hunters, Spitfires, Vampires, Liberators, Harvards – exotic names of World War II vintage. All these aircraft are only worthy of finding a place in a museum.”



McNamara suggested that until India disbanded that fleet, it was no use acquiring any sophisticated aircraft.



What the American secretary said was offensive…and true. Although the US did not offer any help, what India did with its antiquated planes and vintage tanks remains the stuff of legend. Pradhan says, “With that background, it was an exhilarating moment when some of those junk planes, such as the Mysteres, Vampires and Hunters performed brilliantly against Pakistan’s sophisticated F-86s. In fact, the indigenously built Gnat, a small beaver-like fighter, brought down several F-86s.”



The 1965 War remains memorable for two things. One was a monumental miscalculation by Pakistan. President Ayub Khan, egged on by his scheming and feckless Foreign Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, sent a top-secret order to his army chief General Mohammed Musa: “As a general rule, Hindu morale would not stand for more than a couple of hard blows delivered at the right time and the right place. Such opportunities should therefore be sought and exploited.”



Secondly, India’s leadership – as it has done consistently over the past 2500 years – frittered away on the negotiating table what the soldiers won on the battlefield. Pradhan writes: “In a way, India’s leadership, out of its sense of restraint, fair play and endeavour to seek enduring peace and goodwill with the neighbour, seems to have missed opportunities to solve the problem.”



At the end of a bruising 22-day war, India held 1920 square kilometres of Pakistani territory while Pakistan only held 550 square kilometres of Indian land. The Haji Pir pass was also captured by Indian soldiers after an epic battle. And yet India surrendered everything at the Tashkent Declaration in January 1966.



*Western ways*



The US, which was embroiled in a bloody war of its own in Vietnam, acted mostly through the United Nations. However, the defining western aim was to see their satellite Pakistan get through the war without getting battered. This view is amply summed by Chavan, who wrote about British Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s ceasefire proposal at a time when India had the upper hand: “I insisted on military advantages being maintained. The UK proposals look like a trap.”



As three divisions of the Indian Army were slicing across Pakistani defences and thundering across the Ichhogil canal to Lahore, Wilson sent a message to Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and Ayub Khan: “Both governments bear responsibility for the steady escalation which has subsequently occurred, and today’s attack in the Lahore area presents us with a completely new situation.”



Wilson’s message implied that India was as much to blame for the war on the subcontinent as Pakistan. “Shastri more or less brushed aside that message,” says Pradhan. “Bias on the part of Britain would rule out the UK from playing any effective role in events after the ceasefire.”



*Russian Role*



Russia, which was following the events with deep interest, maintained its traditional stand that Kashmir was part of India. Pradhan writes Moscow accepted the disturbances in Kashmir had been created by infiltrators from Pakistan.



Russia also backed India at the United Nations. K. Vijaykrishnan writes in ‘The Soviet Union and the India-Pakistan War, 1965’, “Support was available for India on some important technical points and objections India had raised,” he says. Russia supported the Indian position that the Security Council should only deal with "questions directly connected with the settlement of the armed conflict” and not drag in the Kashmir issue.



Fending off China was a trickier affair. Russia did not want an open confrontation with Beijing, but Moscow decided it would not remain a passive spectator if India had to battle on two fronts. According to Vijaykrishnan, during the thick of the conflict, India received a reassuring message from Russian Premier Alexei Kosygin indicating support in the event of a Chinese attack.



Sisir Gupta writes in ‘India and the International System’ that India was aware Russia would never like to see India humbled or weakened. “A strong and friendly India occupying a pre-eminent position in South Asia was very much a Soviet foreign policy interest. Notwithstanding the fluctuations in the Soviet attitude and the zig-zag nature of the course it pursued, there was throughout a broad assumption underlying Soviet policies towards South Asia, that India was the key factor in the region and that any policy which created distrust and dissension between the two countries was to be avoided.”



China got the message and backed off despite Pakistani appeals for help. Chinese strongman Mao Tse-Tung was reported to have told Ayub Khan that "if there is a nuclear war, it is Peking and not Rawalpindi that will be the target", writes G.W. Chaudhury in ‘India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Major Powers: Politics of a Divided Subcontinent’.