China's Military Modernization: An Assessment by Rand corporation PART 1

  Military Might: A Surface-Level Assessment

China's military appears formidable, boasting one of the world's largest and most modern forces. Its naval strength surpasses that of the U.S. Navy, and its air force is rapidly closing the gap in combat aircraft numbers. Furthermore, China's advanced weaponry, including stealth aircraft, warships, submarines, and hypersonic missiles, rivals or even surpasses that of the United States in certain areas. This has led to warnings of China's ascendance as the dominant military power in the Indo-Pacific region, with predictions of a potential decisive military advantage by 2027, increasing the risk of conflict over Taiwan. War game simulations further reinforce this perception, often depicting significant losses for intervening U.S. forces.

The Reality Behind the Hardware: Questioning Combat Effectiveness

Despite its impressive arsenal, the PLA's ability to translate material power into genuine combat power remains unproven. History provides cautionary tales of militaries failing to effectively utilize advanced weaponry. The Qing dynasty's defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War and the Nationalists' loss in the Chinese Civil War highlight the importance of skill and resolve over mere equipment. Similarly, the overestimation of Russia's military capabilities before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine underscores the danger of equating hardware with combat proficiency. The PLA, having not engaged in combat since 1979, presents a similar enigma. While doctrinal writings and training exercises offer insights, they provide mixed results. The PLA demonstrates competence in non-combat missions and shows some ability to execute joint operations in training. However, its avoidance of combat and internal criticisms of its joint operational capabilities raise significant doubts. The weak correlation between peacetime training and wartime performance further fuels skepticism, as demonstrated by Russia's lackluster performance despite extensive pre-war exercises.

The PLA's Core Purpose: Upholding CCP Rule Over External Warfare

A crucial, often overlooked, question is the fundamental purpose of the PLA. While militaries ostensibly protect the state from external threats, their actual roles vary significantly. Militaries are inherently political entities, reflecting the priorities of their respective states. In countries with insecure governments, militaries may prioritize internal stability and regime protection over external defense. This can lead to practices that enhance political reliability at the expense of combat effectiveness, such as loyalty-based promotions and fragmented command structures. Conversely, militaries focused on external threats prioritize meritocracy, flexible command systems, and institutional loyalty. The PLA, fundamentally, is optimized to uphold the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) rule.

Historical Precedence: Political Goals Over Combat Readiness

Throughout its history, the PLA has prioritized the CCP's political goals over combat readiness. This historical trend, particularly evident since the Korean War, underscores the PLA's primary role as a guarantor of CCP power.

Modernization's Motive: Securing CCP Supremacy

The PLA's modernization efforts are primarily driven by the imperative to maintain the CCP's power, rather than solely preparing for external warfare. The impressive equipment is more for the purpose of internal and external political posturing, than for actual warfighting.

China's Decline and the PLA's Evolving Role

As China potentially faces a period of decline, the PLA's mission of upholding CCP rule is likely to gain even greater urgency, while its focus on combat readiness may further diminish.

Implications for U.S. Defense Planning

The prospect of a large-scale, high-intensity conventional war between the U.S. and China remains improbable. However, if tensions escalate, China is likely to favor indirect methods of conflict. U.S. defense planning should therefore adopt a broader threat framework that considers a wider range of potential threats alongside the remote possibility of conventional war.

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The PLA's Primary Directive: Securing CCP Rule, Not Battlefield Supremacy

Origins and Evolution: The PLA as the CCP's Armed Vanguard

What is the fundamental nature of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)? Is it a military designed primarily for external warfare, or is it an instrument for achieving the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) political objectives? From its inception, the PLA's core mission has been to ensure the CCP's political ascendancy. Born as the "armed wing" of the CCP, this foundational identity persists today. However, the PLA's execution of this mission has varied considerably, shaped by China's evolving security landscape and the CCP's strategic aims.

Early Years: Combat Effectiveness as a Necessity for Survival

During the tumultuous early 20th century, the CCP waged an insurgency to seize power amidst widespread conflict. In this context, a combat-effective PLA (initially known as the Red Army) was essential. Mao Zedong's 1938 dictum, "power grows from the barrel of a gun," reflected the reality of a China ravaged by civil war and Japanese invasion. The CCP required a formidable military to overcome Kuomintang, warlord, and Japanese adversaries. Consequently, there was a strong alignment between the CCP's political goal of seizing power and the imperative for a highly capable military.