Over the last year Japan–China relations have slid into a serious diplomatic crisis, driven above all by Tokyo’s sharper defence posture on Taiwan and Beijing’s coercive pushback.

 

China Japan ties

Over the last year Japan–China relations have slid into a serious diplomatic crisis, driven above all by Tokyo’s sharper defence posture on Taiwan and Beijing’s coercive pushback. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s statement that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could be treated as an “existential crisis” for Japan under its 2015 security laws has become the focal flashpoint, but it sits atop long‑running maritime, military and economic frictions.

How ties deteriorated in the last year

• In November 2025, Takaichi told the Diet that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could qualify as a “survival‑threatening situation” for Japan, legally allowing the Self‑Defense Forces to enter a Taiwan conflict in collective self‑defence.
• China reacted with unusual fury: the consul general in Osaka posted threats against Takaichi on X, and Beijing accused Japan of “military threat” and “remilitarisation,” triggering a full‑blown diplomatic row.
• At the UN and other fora through late 2025, both sides traded sharp statements on Taiwan, with China invoking Japan’s wartime history and warning Tokyo not to “interfere in China’s internal affairs,” while Japan defended its right to respond to threats that endanger its survival.
• Beijing intensified military pressure around Japan: PLA Navy and Air Force activities expanded in the East China Sea and Sea of Japan, often in joint patrols with Russia, raising Tokyo’s concern about encirclement and sea‑lane vulnerability in a Taiwan contingency.
• Economically, China tightened export controls on key dual‑use items and signalled a near‑halt to rare‑earth shipments to Japan, while issuing travel advisories that hit tourism, clearly signalling economic coercion.​
• Domestically, Takaichi’s firm line against Chinese bullying pushed her approval ratings above 70%, and she has moved toward a snap election to secure a stronger mandate for defence build‑up and China policy, even as Beijing warns against Japan’s “strong Japan” agenda.

Key challenges Japan faces from China

1. Taiwan and direct security risk

• Japan’s Nansei Islands (including Yonaguni) lie very close to Taiwan, so any conflict there could directly expose Japanese territory and sea‑lanes to Chinese missiles and naval activity.
• Under its 2015 security legislation, Tokyo now acknowledges Taiwan as a scenario where Japan might exercise collective self‑defence, but that also makes Japan an explicit target in Chinese planning, complicating crisis management.

2. Maritime and air pressure

• China has steadily expanded naval and air operations around the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and into the Sea of Japan, often using large multi‑ship formations and joint bomber patrols with Russia.
• This strains Japan’s Coast Guard and Air Self‑Defence Force, forces high‑tempo scrambles, and threatens Japan’s control of critical chokepoints and sea lines of communication in a contingency.​

3. Economic coercion

• As tensions rose after Takaichi’s Taiwan remarks, Beijing used export controls on “dual‑use” materials and rare earths, plus informal tourism and business curbs, to signal that Japan’s economy can be targeted.​
• Given China is a major trade partner, Japan must now hedge supply chains, diversify rare‑earth and high‑tech inputs, and support firms exposed to Chinese market retaliation.

4. Information, history and diplomacy

• China has tried to frame Japan’s tougher security policy as a return to “militarism,” sending letters to the UN and lobbying others to be “vigilant” about Japan’s defence modernisation.​
• This information campaign seeks to blunt Japan’s efforts to build coalitions (with the US, Australia, India, Philippines and Europe) and to limit support for Tokyo in any Taiwan‑related crisis.

5. China–Russia coordination

• Growing China–Russia military cooperation in the region — shared airfields, joint bomber patrols, and possible reciprocal port access — raises the prospect of two‑front pressure on Japan’s northern and southern approaches in a crisis.​
• That complicates Japanese force planning, as it must simultaneously watch the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, Sea of Japan and northern approaches, stretching limited resources.​

Japan’s strategic response

• Takaichi is using her high popularity and potential snap poll to seek a mandate for higher defence spending, stronger US–Japan alliance coordination on Taiwan, and deeper security ties with like‑minded Indo‑Pacific partners.
• Tokyo is also working to harden its south‑western islands, invest in counter‑strike capabilities, and build economic resilience against Chinese sanctions, while trying to avoid outright military escalation.

In sum, over the past year Japan–China ties have moved from uneasy competition into open diplomatic confrontation, with Taiwan at the centre, and Japan now faces simultaneous military, economic and diplomatic pressure from a more assertive China