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Wednesday, 22 May 2024

Israel Hamas Conflict -III PART 3- MAJ GEN NITIN GADKARI

 In an interview with Politico, a U.S. Magazine that reports on policymakers, politicians, and finance, former U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who spent nearly four decades in the Middle East in various assignments for the Foreign Office, when asked about shifting Palestinians to Egypt for the duration of the war, had this to state: "That is why Egypt just exploded when [U.S. Secretary of State] Tony Blinken proposed they give temporary sanctuary to Gazans. Again, there is an ideological overlay of enmity because of Hamas' Muslim Brotherhood affiliation, but the deep antipathy and fear on the part of the Egyptian government toward the Palestinians predates that by decades." The Ambassador thinks that Arab states only provide lip service to the Palestinian cause. They have no real intent of helping the Hamas. He points out that judging by the reaction of the Arab states to the Israel offensive into Gaza, "They haven't even recalled their ambassadors from Israel in response, except Jordan, which was forced to do so due to a large section of Palestinian population which now has Jordanian nationality". 

Reality Check

The reality is the Arab nations have no desire to bail out Hamas and, least of all, allow Palestinian refugees to settle in their lands. There could be many reasons, but four major ones are emphasised.

Political Dynamics  Many Muslim nations have complex relationships in the region. Many share adversarial relations with each other. But most are now friendly with Western countries; the U.S. and the E.U. Latest foreign policy initiatives indicate the desire to improve relations with Israel. Four years back, the Abrahamic Accords were a way to mend fences with Israel for Saudi Arabia and its partners, such as the UAE, Morocco, and Bahrain. The geo-political and geo-economic compulsions of the region dictate this change. Oil is a fast-depleting resource, and the world is shifting to alternate forms of energy, thus reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. The transition and its future state could spell doom to the oil-dependent economies. Mending relations with Israel comes at a cost, lowering the scales of the Palestinian cause. 

Internal Security Concerns Every Arab country has a rebellion brewing in its backyard. Most are hard-core fundamental groups keen to take their nations into the 7th century. Arab governments have difficulty keeping them at bay, and maintaining peace takes much of their time and resources. In such situations, an influx of Hamas cadres or even PLO Fateh Cadres into their country to join up and provide impetuous to the existing Muslim Brotherhood-like organisations is least desired. Such an influx could shift the balance of power and destabilise the regimes. 

Regional Rivalries The Saudi-Iran rivalry is a cause of many conflicts in the Middle East. The Houthis, the Sudanese crisis and even the current Hamas attack on Israel are attributed to the rivalries' between the top two nations of the Islamic world. It is ironic that Hamas and the PLO, which were the ideological rivals of Hezbollah in the Lebanon civil war in the seventies and eighties, are now partners in their war against Israel. What is worth noticing is that while Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia and UAE have shown little concern for Hamas, a Sunni organisation, it is Iran and Hezbollah, a Shia nation and group, that have come to Hamas's rescue. This contrast is symptomatic of the temporal nature of support in the Middle East. In this situation, Saudi Arabia can only pay lip service to its support for the Hamas and Palestinian cause. 

Domestic Public Opinion. As the article has brought out in the earlier part, the population of the Arab countries is not too happy about the way Hamas and Palestinians have advanced their cause. Constant violence and confrontation with Israel have taken peace away from the region. Civil wars and ideological disputes are a by-product of the region's suffering. Considering the domestic public opinion, the Arab nations are happy to provide moral and ideological support to Hamas; they are willing to provide aid, too, but they have drawn a line. They do not want the Palestinian wars to enter their country.   

Conclusion

The recent conflict in Gaza has raised the support for the Hamas and Palestine cause in all Muslim nations. A survey in Egypt has shown that ever since the October '23 attack, the support for Hamas has grown. Below is a graph that depicts the same.  

A Graph depicting the Support to Hamas in Egypt over the year

Source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/egypt-polling-shows-rise-positive-views-hamas-iran-backed-groups-and-muslim

Even in the U.S. and Europe, the protests in favour of the Palestinian cause have increased, leaving Western governments to ponder if they are losing their domestic popular vote because of Israel. The protests in the U.S. universities have gained ominous proportion. Yet, Netanyahu's government is pressing forward and likely to continue its attack on south Gaza in a bid to destroy Hamas. Whether it is an achievable goal is hard to predict. But if they don't wrap it up fast, they will lose their support from the West. It is doubtful that Hamas would give up their fight. The death of the Iranian President is only a temporary setback. Iran is a proxy in this war, and hence, the political vacuum in Iran is unlikely to influence the situation in Gaza. As Israel prolongs the conflict, Hamas gains greater support. In this conflict, whether Hamas survives as a military organisation matters. If it does, Israel will lose the war, and Hamas will regain control of Gaza. 

Such an outcome of the conflict is within the realm of possibility. But while Hamas would gain public support, it is unlikely that the Arab nations would change their official stance to accept the Palestinians in their country or cut their ties with the Western nations. It would prove the old adage: "The more things change, the more they remain the same."

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