China has already won elections in two countries, Maldives and South Pacific Islands .
ChatGPT and similar AI programs give propagandists and intelligence agents a powerful new tool for interfering in politics. The clock is ticking on learning to spot this disinformation before the 2024 election.
The social media is fertile ground for AI-powered disinformation.
Elections around the world are facing an evolving threat from foreign actors, one that involves artificial intelligence.
Over the years, a number of countries – most prominently China and Iran – used social media to influence foreign elections, both in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world and 2024 will not be any different.
But there is a new element: generative AI and large language models. These have the ability to quickly and easily produce endless reams of text on any topic in any tone from any perspective.
This is all very new. ChatGPT was introduced in November 2022. The more powerful GPT-4 was released in March 2023. Other language and image production AIs are around the same age.
A CONJUNCTION OF ELECTIONS
Election season will soon be in full swing in much of the democratic world. Seventy-one percent of people living in democracies will vote in a national election between now and the end of next year. Among them: Argentina and Poland in October, Taiwan in January, Indonesia in February, India in April, the European Union and Mexico in June and the U.S. in November. Nine African democracies, including South Africa, will have elections in 2024. Australia and the U.K. don’t have fixed dates, but elections are likely to occur in 2024.
Just last month, Meta announced that it had removed 7,704 Facebook accounts, 954 Facebook pages, 15 Facebook groups and 15 Instagram accounts associated with a Chinese influence campaign, and identified hundreds more accounts on TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), LiveJournal and Blogspot.
Generative AI tools also allow for new techniques of production and distribution, such as low-level propaganda at scale. For the most part, it behaves normally. It posts about its fake everyday life, joins interest groups and comments on others’ posts, and generally behaves like a normal user. And once in a while, not very often, it says – or amplifies – something political. Democracies have to watch out all posts.
Chinese Grey Zone War Against Taiwan
Gray zone warfare refers to the use of unconventional tactics and strategies by China to achieve its objectives without resorting to direct military engagement. These tactics operate in the space between peace and war, employing a combination of diplomatic, economic, informational, and military tools to achieve desired outcomes.
Here are some strategies China has employed against Taiwan:-
Disinformation Campaigns: China has employed disinformation campaigns through various media channels to influence Taiwan's domestic politics and sow discord among Taiwan's population.
Economic coercion: China has used its economic leverage to pressure Taiwan. This includes restricting trade, tourism, and investment, as well as enticing Taiwanese businesses with economic incentives to increase their reliance on the Chinese market.
Diplomatic isolation: China seeks to diplomatically isolate Taiwan by pressuring other countries to not recognize it as a separate sovereign entity and insists on the "One China" policy.
Military coercion: China has conducted military exercises near Taiwan, increasing its military presence in the region. China conducts military exercises near Taiwan and deploy its military assets to signal its resolve and potential to use force.
Cyber operations: China has been accused of conducting cyberattacks against Taiwanese government institutions, businesses, and infrastructure. These attacks aim to disrupt Taiwan's systems and gather intelligence.
Psychological operations: China employs information warfare techniques, including disinformation campaigns, to shape public opinion in Taiwan and abroad.
Legal warfare (lawfare): China employs legal tactics and international law interpretations to challenge Taiwan's sovereignty and legitimacy on the global stage.
Proxy operations: China supports and exploits proxies, such as cybercriminals and disinformation networks, to conduct operations against Taiwan's interests covertly.
The success of these strategies is limited. While China has made progress in increasing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan and limiting its international space, Taiwan has also implemented countermeasures and garnered support from countries concerned about China's assertiveness.
Defence spending shoots up as conflicts rise globally: What it means for India and its security
India remains among the highly threatened nations. It has two hostile nuclear-armed neighbours, Pakistan and China, with the latter being the world’s second-largest military spender.
China and its threatened neighbours
China’s military rise is the most watched and analysed subject globally. The US and China’s neighbourhood, especially India, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, monitor all military power projection-related activities in China.
China spends around 40 per cent outside the formal military budget under other code-heads that directly contribute to military power.
All the neighbouring countries increased their defence budgets to reduce the growing military power gap with China. India also has to increase its defence preparedness accordingly.
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