To write anything about the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is fraught with the danger of boring a reader with another news bulletin. They fly fast and thick in every form, most on the WA and other social media. They are all opinionated and take sides. So another one for you to read would mean I am treading on dangerous grounds. That is why I tried to avoid the conflict and look at the broader scenario of how the conflict is built up. This piece is the first in the series, and there would be at least another if the conflict resolution is quick. But going by the turn of events, it’s unlikely. This time, the end state may be quite different than envisaged or what has been achieved earlier. What would it be? It is very hard to predict. I suspect even the Israelis are unaware of how this would end. For the region's sake, I hope that good sense prevails over the political leaders to rein in their respective militant or murderous elements. No one side alone can find a solution to this complex problem. I hope you find something new in this read.
Israel and Hamas Latest Conflict: A Sad Dilemma
With the amount of information circulated by the print, electronic media, and on the internet, there is very little that a reader doesn't know about the history, geography and the reasons for the current war. If anything, there is an information overload. It is difficult to separate the Chaff from the grain. Seventh day after Hamas made a daring intrusion onto Israeli territory, most observers are baffled: How could it happen? Many theories are doing the round. For example, the Egyptians had warned the Israelis about a big impending attack by Hamas at least three days before the attacks happened, or a cyber-attack paralysed the Israeli electronic systems, thus making them blind to the actual incursions. There may be little truth in them. A billion-dollar fence does not collapse without reason or because of the day's cyber-attack. Yet there is a sinister feeling about how the entire first day of the crisis fanned out. Israelis have responded by bombing Gaza to earth. The air and artillery strikes continue even as this article is being written or read. The anticipated Israeli ground offensive is to be launched anytime. Having slipped up in allowing this deadly Hamas attack, the Israeli government now vows to kill every Hamas member. 'This time it would be different', they have promised to their Public. Such a promise is a tall order. This is not the first time Israel has vowed to obliterate Hamas, and it will not be the last time if things don't change.
There is something sinister about this crisis. The signs are different than the usual Israel-Palestine, Israel-Hamas conflict. Israel has fought with Hamas since it seized power in the Gaza Strip. In 2007, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2021 and now 2023. This time, the level is different, both the Hamas attack and the Israeli response from the air. The genocide of the Israeli civilians in their territory on such a large scale is a new low for the Israelis. Why is this conflict giving chills to all governments in the world? As if the evil has risen from the ground and a biblical prophecy of holocaust is coming true. Will the conflict widen and engulf more nations? This article delves into what makes this conflict different. And is there more than what meets the eye?
The Abraham Accord
In September 2020, Israel, Bahrain and the UAE signed a peace treaty. It formally established diplomatic relations between the UAE, Bahrain, and the Israelis. It meant two important Arab countries had recognised the state of Israel and established diplomatic ties. Signed under the umbrella of the Trump administration, it was hailed as a successful Coup, which the Trump Administration had pulled out in its dying days. It was named the 'Abraham Accord'. Central to this treaty was the role of Saudi Arabia. Both Bahrain and UAE are strong allies of the Saudis. It was believed that Saudi Arabia had given its tacit approval to these countries to go ahead with the accord, thus opening up the Middle East to a new period where business with Israel was not taboo.
Why was this accord so significant? The answer to this question goes back to the formation of the Jewish land in 1949 by the United Nations out of Palestine. The Arab land of Palestine was divided, and Israel was carved out of it. Ever since then, the Arab countries have vowed not to recognise Israel and do any business with them. The central understanding was any reconciliation with Israel would only be after the state of Palestine got a de Jure recognition as an independent country. This recognition was of the 'Two State Theory' of Palestine. Since Israel did not recognise Palestine as an independent country, the Vice versa was also true for the Islamic world. When the Abraham Accord was signed, It broke the 70-year-old understanding between Islamic nations. The Abraham Accord had no mention of Palestine.
The Saudis behind this development drew the ire of the Islamic world, much to the delight of the Iranians. Saudi Arabia under Mohammad-Bin -Salman (MBS in Short) is on the cusp of a change. Saudi Arabia is the claimers to the title of "‘Protecters of the Islamic Ummah’ (Islamic holy community). Their claims are recognised because they are the custodians of the two holiest shrines of the Islamic world, Mecca & Medina. Both cities are in Saudi Arabia. Yet there is a divide in Islam: the Sunnis, a sect to which Saudi Arabia belongs, and Shiites (pronounced as Shias). The Shias find their leadership in Iran. The divide between the two Islamic sects is due to the conflict about who is the real successor of Prophet Mohammad. The divide between the two sects is bitter; thus, the divide between the two nations leading the sects is also very bitter. Both countries claim to be the leaders of the Muslim world.
When the Abraham Accord was signed, there was a tacit understanding that it would pave the way to a similar accord between Saudi Arabia and Israel. President Trump and his Republican party lost elections in the US, and the Saudi-Israel deal went into cold storage. President Biden wanted to resurrect the nuclear deal with Iran, which his party under Barrack Obama had made. Also, the Khashoggi murder, a Washington Post journalist allegedly murdered by the Saudi secret service in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, had left President Biden a bitter critic of MBS. He had vowed to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state. He was more inclined to appease the Iranians.
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