Ukraine has become an important place for drone development and manufacturing. Joint privatepublic partnerships have led to the development or repurposing of drones for military use, attracting investment from well-known businesses. The pressure of the war to innovate, the ingenuity of the Ukrainian people, and the close cooperation with Western countries have helped establish a robust domestic defence industrial base.
Close cooperation with military units on the front lines by more than 200 Ukrainian companies involved in drone production help to tweak and augment drones to improve their ability to kill and spy on the enemy. Ukraine’s Defence Ministry, has shared Russian jamming technology with the drone companies, allowing them to test their products against some of the world’s most sophisticated electronic warfare weapons.
Drone makers are also receiving constant feedback from the front lines, allowing them to make immediate adjustments to reduce vulnerabilities and improve lethality. Of late, Ukraine has been developing Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology on its drones. This will enable their drones to still hit the target even in the face of Russian electronic jamming or spoofing. AI capabilities help the drone complete its mission even if its target moves, representing a significant upgrade from existing drones that track specific coordinates.
The Ukrainians have been particularly adept at using both air- and sea-based drones. Although many of these drones are military-grade, low-cost Do It Yourself (DIY) systems are clearly also part of the mix, blurring the line between high-end and low-end systems. The outcome of these steps has been remarkable.
Ukraine has been able to reduce the ‘detection-to-destruction’ time to between one and two minutes. Ukraine demonstrated its increasingly advanced naval drone capabilities by using drone boats, in the attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol on 29 October last year. This attack carried out in conjunction with aerial drones, damaged at least one minesweeper and one frigate equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles.
Even without inflicting massive damage on the Black Sea Fleet, the Ukrainians reduced Russian capacity to launch sea-based missiles. In early August this year, Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian amphibious landing ship and struck a Russian fuel tanker using naval drones. These attacks took place close to Novorossiysk, an important Russian naval base and oil port in the eastern Black Sea. Another drone attack in the same month on the Saki airbase targeted Russian Navy fighter aircraft. In December 2022, Ukraine used unmanned aerial systems to undertake audacious attacks on Engels air base, deep inside Russia.
Embarrassingly for the Russians, Ukraine followed the first attack with another a few days later in the same month. A Russian S-400 Air Defence missile system in Crimea was destroyed on 23 August 2023. Two days later a drone swarm was used to attack the Russian 126th Guards Coastal Defence Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet near Perevalne in Crimea.
On the night of August 29, Ukrainian OWA drones penetrated more than 370 kilometres into Russia in a bold attack on Russian airfields. The attack destroyed two IL-76 heavy transport aircraft and damaged two other planes. That same week, Ukrainians used cardboard drones to damage a MiG-29 and four Su-30 fighters in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. On 12 September 2023, Ukraine launched missiles and drones to successfully hit the Russian landing ship, Minsk, and a Kilo-class submarine docked at Sevastopol for repairs. On 14 September 2023, a drone attack carried out against Russian warships caused unspecified damage to Vasily Bykov Project 22160- class patrol ships.
Another attack caused damage to the rear starboard hull of a Bora-class guided missile corvette, the Samum. The same day, Ukraine destroyed another S-400 battery, near Yevpatoria, a western Crimean port using drones. As per Royal United Services Institution (RUSI), Ukraine is losing approximately 10000 drones per month. Even if the figure is true, the fact that Ukraine continues to field diverse and innovative drones indicates a high production capability and sustenance ability.
Drones, by themselves will not enable a Ukrainian victory. But in producing, employing and constantly innovating, Ukraine has demonstrated a laudable ability to create a favourable asymmetry. Its ability to scale the learning curve is noteworthy.
For India, that faces numerical disadvantage against the Chinese, there are many lessons. A closer study and better understanding of the innovations in the Russia-Ukraine war could be a good beginning.
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