Israel and Hamas Latest Conflict: A Sad Dilemma-Part 2- Gen Nitin Gadkari

Shifting US Concerns

The Biden administration suffered from foreign policy failures in Afghanistan, China, and Russia. The Ukraine conflict became the epicentre of US attention. With the Middle East relatively quiet and peaceful, the US was keen to get out and concentrate on its problems in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. As a foreign policy, the Biden administration was eager to see Israel reduce its conflict with the Arab world so that the US could disengage from the Middle East and concentrate on the newer areas of concern borne out of the belligerence of Russia in Ukraine and China in the south China sea. The Abraham Accord came to the rescue, and for the US, it was time to put part II into motion. The mutual hatred for Iran made the common ground for Israel's Prime Minister, Mr Netanyahu, and MBS to tread on. Serious discussions brokered by the US brought the two sides within striking distance of inking a deal. But while the deal was a win-win for all parties, it was not easy for the Saudis to give their nod till Israel made some serious concessions on Palestine. MBS and the Sauds, though dictators are very sensitive to public opinion at home. Any Arab deal without the Palestinian bargain would be disastrous. It is believed that the staunch conservative right-wing Prime Minister Mr Netanyahu was considering something which would have been a bargain enough for the Peace deal between the Saudis and Israel. The speculated part of this deal was the military support by the US to the Saudis and the permission and active help to build a civil nuclear facility inside Saudi Arabia. Despite much opposition inside the US, the Biden administration was willing to let this deal go through with ironclad guarantees from the Saudis, which were necessary to appease the Israelis. It was believed that the deal was in the final stages of its draft, being readied for the signatures of the two Heads of State at an early date.

The reality of a deal like this to go through meant one country would be the biggest loser. The country was Iran. A nuclear-capable Saudi Arabia was a direct challenge to the Iranian dreams of the leadership of the Islamic world and a diplomatic victory for its arch-rival Israel. Iran has been funding the Hamas (a Sunni group) in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon for years. Although the Shias hate Sunnis and Vice versa, their hatred for the State of Israel is greater than their mutual hatred. It would be logical to think that Iran would have liked to scuttle the deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hamas, on the other hand, harbours a pathological hatred for the Zionist state of Israel and has vowed to kill all Jews and abolish the state of Israel. Hamas's agenda is first the extermination of Jews and then the rights of the Palestinian people. Such ideological blindness is easy prey for exploitation.  

The Hamas Offensive

All the compounds that make an explosive mixture in the Middle East were boiling in this cauldron for a while. The events of the past, like the storming of the Al-Aqsa mosque in east Jerusalem in the holy month of Ramzan by the Israeli police and the killings of the Palestinians in the West Bank last year, were a component of this explosive compound, which was ready to explode anytime. Why Israelis were complicit in this understanding or complicit in the preparations of Hamas for an attack on Israel is baffling. The common belief that fits the narrative is that Israeli intelligence and the military were too arrogant to believe that Hamas could launch an attack on Israeli soil. The well-coordinated attack on the 07th of October 2023 near the southern border of Israel would have taken months, if not years, to plan. Hamas does not have the capability the Israelis believed, which could be true. This understanding gives credence to the theory that Hamas had outside support regarding the finances, sophisticated weaponry, and planning for this foray into Israel. The method used and the coordinated targeting of surveillance systems at the points of incursions required an experienced military mind to plan precision attacks. It took Israel and the entire Western world by surprise. It does not need rocket science to guess where such help could have come from for Hamas. 

Prognosis

Israel has not yet begun the ground offensive. It is expected anytime soon. What the objectives are and what the terminal end state would be as desired by the IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) is a matter of conjecture. Yet, going by experience ( Read the two articles written on this blog in May 2021 on the last Israel-Hamas conflict; the link below), the IDF is unlikely to achieve substantive gains. It is tough to distinguish who is a Hamas activist and a civilian, as all Palestinians look alike, and Hamas does not operate as a regular army outfit. They act as a terrorist group in cells independent of others. Second, Gaza is a very densely populated area. Making way through the debris and destruction, laden with booby traps and mines, would slow the operations to a snail's pace. Suppose the objective is to liberate the captured Israeli civilians and army personnel. In that case, it's impossible for the IDF to achieve unless the Hamas release them as part of a deal or a concession to the IDF. Hamas does not operate from overground centres or structures. They have developed a sophisticated system of underground tunnel cris-crossing at varying levels (depth), making access to it or its destruction very difficult. Hamas is allegedly holding these hostages in a few of these tunnels. 

Where does it go from here for Israel? It is a challenging proposition to speculate. Israel's dilemma lies in the fact that it can bomb the structures in Gaza which stand on the ground going into the sky. However, it cannot target the tunnels running below the earth. Hamas resides below and has left the Palestinian civilian population on top to suffer the consequences of their 07^th Oct act. Hamas is a cruel organisation whose leaders and perpetrators are either out of Gaza or hiding in the tunnels safe from the Israeli air strikes. The Hamas's senior leadership is believed to be in Qatar, ensconced in a five-star hotel where they monitor and control the operations. With the initial sympathy of the attack by Hamas ebbing for the Israelis, more voices on the Israeli atrocities on Palestine's civilian population would be heard in the media and on the internet. The criticism would get shriller with more Palestinian deaths. Israel would be asked to lift its siege, allow basic necessities to flow into Gaza, and let the civilian population evacuation out of Gaza or a safe place designated. But can they turn two million people into a refugee camp? Impossible. Israel thus faces a Hobson's choice of the worst kind. It has vowed to eradicate Hamas but does not have the space to do it. Netanyahu and his war cabinet have put themselves in a bind, as violence cannot justify earlier violence. Unless they have a bigger plan for resetting the Palestinians of the Gaza Strip into a more meaningful place or form, eradicating Hamas is a distant dream. For this to happen, both sides have to lose something. Netanyahu and his party's belief in one nation theory or giving up forever the idea of peace with the Arab world. The Saudis will not sign a deal, given this war for some time. Peace has once again been scuttled by those who claim to be the leaders of their respective people. That is the saddest dilemma of the Middle East