What Lessons have been learned from recent Indo Pak conflict including Op Sindhoor.

 

The recent Indo-Pak conflict, including "Operation Sindoor," has provided critical insights into the evolving nature of warfare, echoing many lessons from the ongoing Ukraine war and highlighting the growing prominence of advanced technologies.

Here's a breakdown of the key lessons learned:

1. Ukraine War Lessons Still Apply (and are amplified): The conflict, much like the Ukraine war, showcased the importance of adapting to a rapidly changing battlefield. India's ability to swiftly integrate indigenous and foreign systems, combined with a focus on self-reliance in defense manufacturing, proved crucial. The emphasis on real-time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and rapid battlefield adaptation, as seen in Ukraine, was also evident. Both conflicts underscore the need for nations to move beyond traditional warfare doctrines and embrace innovative, asymmetric strategies. The significance of information warfare and countering fake narratives was also highlighted, with India actively engaging in fact-based communication during Operation Sindoor, mirroring the crucial role of information in the Ukraine conflict.

2. Airborne Deterrence with Autonomous Platforms (without pilots): Operation Sindoor significantly marked a "new normal" in airborne deterrence, where autonomous platforms played a central role. Both India and Pakistan utilized a range of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), including armed drones, loitering munitions, and electronic decoys, operating below the threshold of a full-scale war. India's use of indigenous loitering munitions like Nagastra-1, Israeli-origin Harop drones, and swarm drones for radar saturation demonstrated a growing capability in autonomous warfare, executing precise, risk-free cross-border strikes. This signals a shift in regional aerial power dynamics and suggests that future conflicts may increasingly begin with the silent launch of autonomous drones, changing the strategy and psychology of warfare. The conflict also exposed challenges in "Identification of Friend or Foe" (IFF) for drones, a lesson from Ukraine that both sides likely faced.

3. Use of Hypersonic and Cruise Missiles: The conflict saw the significant use of advanced missile systems. India reportedly employed BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, capable of high speed, low radar detection, and pinpoint accuracy, to target Pakistani airbases. Pakistan also reportedly used supersonic guided artillery rocket systems like the Fatah-II. This underscores the increasing reliance on precision-guided munitions and the need for robust air defense systems to counter such threats. The reported ability of BrahMos to bypass Chinese-origin air defense systems suggests a growing challenge for older air defense architectures.

4. Armed Drones and Loitering Munitions Operating Below Full-Scale War Threshold: The widespread use of armed drones and loitering munitions was a defining feature. These attritable systems were used to probe enemy air defenses, drain interceptor stocks, and conduct precision strikes. India deployed various loitering munitions and armed drones for both ISR and kinetic strikes. Pakistan also employed drones for surveillance and to target airfields, ammunition depots, and military cantonments. This indicates a "murky middle ground" for escalation, where these systems can be used for significant impact without immediately triggering a full-scale war. The psychological impact of drone attacks on civilian populations was also observed.

5. Bigger Platforms at Risk by Standoff Weapons and Diminished Use: The conflict reinforced the notion that large, traditional platforms are increasingly vulnerable to standoff weapons. The precision strikes carried out by both sides on airbases and military installations from a distance highlighted this vulnerability. The targeting of air defense systems and key infrastructure demonstrates the intent to degrade an adversary's ability to project power, making larger platforms less effective or more risky to deploy in contested environments. The "fire and forget" capabilities of missiles like BrahMos further reduce the risk to launch platforms, contributing to the diminished direct engagement of bigger assets.

6. Anything Detected Can Be Destroyed by a Standoff Weapon: The precision and reach of modern standoff weapons were clearly demonstrated. The ability to detect and then accurately target specific installations, even deep within enemy territory, means that any fixed or even mobile assets that can be located are highly susceptible to destruction. This puts immense pressure on camouflage, concealment, deception, and robust mobile defense strategies. India's success in hitting various Pakistani airbases and military sites, and Pakistan's retaliatory strikes, underline this reality, suggesting a new era where strategic depth and the ability to hide assets are paramount.

In conclusion, Operation Sindoor, in conjunction with lessons from the Ukraine war, highlights a paradigm shift in modern conflict. It emphasizes the critical role of autonomous systems, precision standoff weapons, information warfare, and the increasing vulnerability of traditional large platforms. Future conflicts will likely be characterized by multi-domain operations, often below the threshold of full-scale war, with technology playing an ever-more decisive role.