Trump and Putin Squeeze Zelensky on the Road to Peace

 

The Business of War and Peace

War always leads to business negotiations, where the aggressor often dictates terms while the victim is forced into compromise. Three years ago, Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Ukraine under multiple pretexts, including NATO expansion, the "neo-Nazi" nature of the Zelensky government, and the supposed illegitimacy of Ukraine as a state. His objectives were to support the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and to "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine.

In response, the United States and its NATO allies funneled billions in military aid to Ukraine, ostensibly to counter Russian imperialism and defend democracy. However, as the saying goes—it's the economy, stupid.

Political Shifts and Changing Alliances

The year 2024 proved to be a turning point for Ukraine. With Putin securing a fourth term and Donald Trump returning to the White House, US-Russia relations entered a new phase. In this geopolitical shift, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky found himself increasingly sidelined.

Economic Consequences of War: Russia and the US

The Russian Economy Under Strain

Ukraine has become a battlefield of attrition, with neither side able to sustain the war indefinitely. Western sanctions targeted Russia’s financial, military, and energy sectors, while billions in Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Europe. However, Moscow adapted by shifting to a wartime economy, ramping up military production, and securing crude oil exports to China and India.

Despite an initial economic contraction (-1.2% growth in 2022), Russia's economy rebounded, growing by 3.6% in 2023 and 4% in 2024. However, economic challenges persist: GDP growth is projected to slow to 1-2% in 2025, inflation soared to 9.5% in 2024, and the ruble has depreciated by 21%. Russia has already spent over $200 billion on the war, diverting significant funds from social and infrastructure programs.

The US Economic Burden

The US has spent $65.9 billion on military aid to Ukraine since 2022, an expense that Trump has long opposed. Rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the war’s impact on commodity prices have hurt American businesses. Semiconductor production, dependent on Ukrainian neon and Russian palladium, has suffered, while over 1,000 Western companies have withdrawn from Russia, resulting in significant financial losses. According to estimates, US companies have lost $324 billion due to their exit from the Russian market.

Business First, Peace Second

Saudi Arabia Negotiations: A Business-Centric Dialogue

The recent US-Russia dialogue in Saudi Arabia focused primarily on economic interests rather than political resolutions. Notably, the discussions were led by business figures rather than diplomats. The US delegation included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, while Russia was represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov, and RDIF chief Kirill Dmitriev.

The absence of Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, underscored the business-centric nature of the talks. Instead of leading negotiations, Kellogg was sent to Ukraine to reassure Zelensky. Meanwhile, official statements emphasized "historic economic and investment opportunities" rather than security or territorial disputes.

Oil Diplomacy: Russia’s Key Bargaining Chip

Dmitriev played a crucial role in the discussions, promoting the prospect of US oil companies re-entering the Russian market. With Russia being the world's third-largest crude oil producer, its energy sector remains a major economic pillar. Despite Western sanctions reducing fossil fuel export revenues, Moscow has continued to thrive, largely due to Chinese and Indian purchases. However, the latest US sanctions targeting Russia’s "shadow fleet" of oil tankers have disrupted this trade.

US energy companies, particularly Chevron and ExxonMobil, face financial losses due to their partial withdrawal from Russia. Chevron retains a 15% stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, while Exxon exited the Sakhalin-1 project, incurring a $4 billion loss. During the Saudi negotiations, Russia proposed joint ventures in the Arctic, an area rich in untapped oil and gas reserves, signaling a potential thaw in US-Russia energy relations.

Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth: The Ultimate Bargaining Chip

With limited options, Zelensky has agreed to a minerals and reconstruction deal with Trump in exchange for US support. Under this arrangement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of future revenues from minerals, oil, and gas to a joint US-Ukraine fund for reconstruction.

Meanwhile, Putin has extended an olive branch to US businesses, offering access to rare earth minerals in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories. Ukraine possesses approximately 5% of the world’s rare earth mineral reserves, with the majority located in regions now under Russian control. These critical resources, essential for defense, aerospace, and technology industries, are valued at $14.8 trillion. Russia now controls an estimated $12.4 trillion worth of Ukraine’s energy, metal, and mineral deposits.

Conclusion: The Economics of War and Peace

The war in Ukraine, initially framed as a battle for democracy and sovereignty, has ultimately boiled down to economic interests. While geopolitical considerations remain important, both the US and Russia are prioritizing business opportunities over ideological conflicts. With Zelensky increasingly marginalized, economic deals, not military strategies, are shaping the future of Ukraine.

 

 

EU Chief in New Delhi: Why Europe Needs India Now More Than Ever

 European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to India marks a pivotal moment in EU-India relations. With trade between the two reaching $126 billion in 2024 and long-pending free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations underway, the visit underscores the European Union’s urgent need for new partnerships. As the EU faces challenges from both the United States and China, strengthening ties with India has become a strategic imperative.

Why the EU Seeks Stronger Ties with India

Recent global developments have reinforced the importance of a robust EU-India partnership. US President Donald Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on European imports and China’s expanding economic influence have left Europe at a crossroads. In this uncertain landscape, India offers the EU both economic stability and strategic alignment.

Von der Leyen’s two-day visit, accompanied by a high-level EU delegation, includes meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and key Indian ministers. This visit is expected to accelerate cooperation in trade, investment, technology, and security.

A Mutually Beneficial Economic Partnership

Trade remains the backbone of the EU-India relationship. The EU is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods reaching nearly $126 billion in 2024—an impressive 90% increase over the past decade.

India’s rapidly growing economy, projected to become the third-largest by 2030, presents vast opportunities for European businesses. Key sectors such as automobiles, wines, and spirits view India as a crucial market amid rising global protectionism. Additionally, India’s “Make in India” initiative and its drive to become a manufacturing hub provide avenues for European investment and trade diversification.

For India, the EU represents an essential partner in reducing its dependence on China. European expertise in technology, infrastructure, and investment aligns with India’s “Developed India” (Viksit Bharat) vision and its ambitious goal of boosting total exports to $2 trillion by 2030.

However, despite these economic incentives, hurdles remain. Negotiations for an FTA have dragged on for nearly two decades due to regulatory barriers, intellectual property concerns, and bureaucratic complexities. Both sides recognize the need to overcome these challenges to unlock the full potential of their partnership.

Shared Strategic Interests in the Indo-Pacific

Beyond trade, India and the EU share common security concerns, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. China’s growing assertiveness, cyber threats, and maritime security issues have pushed the EU to deepen its engagement in the region.

India, with its expanding naval capabilities and strategic partnerships, plays a key role in maintaining regional stability. The EU-India Trade and Technology Council (TTC), established in 2022, has become a crucial platform for cooperation in areas such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, digital governance, and green technologies. This initiative aims to strengthen supply chain resilience, economic security, and technological collaboration—critical needs for both partners.

Another key development is the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which aims to enhance connectivity between India and Europe via the Gulf states, Israel, and Jordan. This project reduces reliance on traditional trade routes like the Suez Canal and diversifies supply chains, making it a significant geopolitical and economic initiative for both India and the EU.

India’s Role in Balancing Global Power Shifts

The EU’s increasing focus on India is also driven by global political shifts. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has strained EU-Russia relations, while India’s neutral stance has positioned it as a potential mediator. Despite India’s historical ties with Russia, the EU has chosen engagement over isolation, recognizing India’s rising geopolitical influence.

Rather than pressuring India to sever its economic ties with Russia, the EU is exploring ways to collaborate on shared priorities, such as securing supply chains for critical minerals and advancing defense cooperation.

Furthermore, India’s leadership in the Global South presents new opportunities for the EU. India’s expanding partnerships in Africa and Latin America—particularly in digital transformation and infrastructure projects—align with Europe’s foreign economic policies. The EU sees India as a strategic bridge to these emerging markets, facilitating greater investment and collaboration.

The Road Ahead for EU-India Relations

While the potential for deeper EU-India ties is clear, success depends on translating diplomatic rhetoric into tangible outcomes. Key priorities include finalizing the long-delayed trade agreement, strengthening regional security partnerships, and enhancing technological collaboration.

As global uncertainties grow, India’s role in the EU’s strategic calculations will only become more significant. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether both sides can capitalize on this momentum to build a lasting and mutually beneficial alliance.

भारताची अंतर्गत आणि बाह्य सुरक्षा आव्हाने चिंता आणि पुढील वाटचाल ब्रिगेडियर हेमंत महाजन सांगली 26 फेब्रुवारी २५-6 PM SAVARKAR PRATISHTHAN VISHRAM BAGH

 

China's development of a deep-sea research center in the South China Sea carries significant implications for the world,

 

China's development of a deep-sea research center in the South China Sea carries significant implications for the world, spanning scientific, geopolitical, and economic domains. Here's a breakdown:  

Scientific Implications:

• Advancements in Deep-Sea Research:
• The center enables in-depth studies of unique deep-sea ecosystems, including cold seeps and methane hydrates.  
• Research can yield valuable insights into marine biology, geology, and climate change.
• Potential discoveries of new marine species with medical or industrial applications.
• Technological Development:
• The center drives innovation in deep-sea technology, including submersibles, monitoring systems, and life support systems.  

Geopolitical Implications:

• Reinforcing Territorial Claims:
• The presence of the research center strengthens China's claims in the disputed South China Sea.
• This can escalate tensions with other claimant nations (Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan).
• Strategic Advantage:
• The facility enhances China's ability to monitor and control activities in the region.
• It contributes to China's broader maritime strategy.
• Increased Military capabilities:
• It is possible that some of the research conducted could also have military applications.

Economic Implications:

• Resource Exploration and Exploitation:
• The South China Sea is rich in resources, including methane hydrates and rare minerals.  
• The center facilitates exploration and potential future exploitation of these resources, which could have large economic impact.
• Control of Trade Routes:
• The south china sea is a major shipping lane. Increased chinese presence could effect global trade.  

Key Considerations:

• The South China Sea is a highly contested area, and China's actions are closely watched by other nations.  
• The potential for both scientific advancement and increased geopolitical tension exists.
• The use of gathered information, and the possibility of dual use technology is a concern.  

In essence, the deep-sea research center represents a significant development that could reshape the dynamics of the South China Sea and have far-reaching consequences.

विषय - बांगलादेशी घुसखोरांची समस्या-By ब्रिगेडियर हेमंत महाजन, 25 FEB 25. वेळ - सायंकाळी ७.०० ते ८.०० स्थळ - रोटरी हॅाल , शिक्षण महाविद्यालय , एस एन डी टी विद्यापीठ,PUNE

 

विषय - बांगलादेशी घुसखोरांची समस्या-By ब्रिगेडियर हेमंत महाजन, 25 FEB 25. वेळ - सायंकाळी ७.०० ते ८.००

स्थळ - रोटरी हॅाल , शिक्षण महाविद्यालय , एस एन डी टी विद्यापीठ

 

मा. ब्रिगेडियर हेमंत महाजन ,

     सस्नेह नमस्कार .

विषय - बांगलादेशी घुसखोरांची समस्या .

        स्नेह सेवा ही सेवाभावी व्यक्तींनी एकत्र येऊन स्थापन केलेली संस्था आहे . समाजाविषयी आपुलकी स्नेह आणि त्यापायी समाजसेवा करण्यात आनंद मानणारी .

        लष्करी अधिकारी म्हणून आपण गाजवलेला अतुलनीय पराक्रम आणि सेवानिवृत्तीनंतरही आपण करत असलेल्या भरघोस कार्याचा परिचय आम्हाला आमचे ज्येष्ठ सभासद प्रा . रवींन्द्र कोठावदे यांनी करून दिला . बांगला देशी घुसखोरांचा उपद्रव बंगालपुरताच मर्यादित न राहता देशाच्या सर्व भागांत कमी अधिक प्रमाणात जाणवतो आहे , अगदी पुण्यातही तो जाणवू लागला आहे . आपला या विषयाचा सखोल अभ्यास असून आपण या विषयी विस्तृत लिखाणही केले आहे . या विषयीचे आपले विचार , अनुभव ऐकायला आमच्या सदस्यांना नक्कीच आवडेल . आमच्या सभासदांशी या विषयावर संवाद साधण्यासाठी आमच्या मंगळवार २५ फेब्रुवारी २०२५ रोजी होणाऱ्या सभेत सहभागी होण्यासाठी आपणास हे विशेष निमंत्रण . आपला विषय मांडायला आपल्याला ४०/४५ मिनिटांचा कालावधी उपलब्ध असेल . आपल्याबरोबर आपले परिचित येणार असल्यास त्यांचेही स्वागतच आहे .

वेळ - सायंकाळी ७.०० ते ८.००

स्थळ - रोटरी हॅाल , शिक्षण महाविद्यालय , एस एन डी टी विद्यापीठ

    धन्यवाद

डॅा राधा संगमनेरकर , अध्यक्ष

2

सर्व स्नेही जनांना सस्नेह नमस्कार

विषय - बांगला देशी घुसखोरांची समस्या

      बांगला देशी घुसखोर , रोहिंग्या यांचा उपद्रव केवळ पूर्वोत्तर राज्यांपुरता मर्यादित राहिला नसून सर्व देशभर त्यांचा मुक्त संचार झाला आहे . फुटकळ चोऱ्यांपासून ते दंगल , जाळपोळ यासारख्या समाजविघातक गुन्ह्यांमधे त्यांचा सहभाग आढळतो . आपल्या पुण्यातही त्यांच्या वस्त्या आढळल्या आहेत . एकूण या समस्येचे स्वरूप आणि त्यावर उपाय तरी काय हे प्रश्न आपल्याला भेडसावतात . याविषयी सविस्तर विवेचन करण्यासाठी ब्रिगेडियर हेमंत महाजन आपल्या मंगळवार २५ फेब्रुवारी २०२५ रोजी होणाऱ्या सभेत सहभागी होणार आहेत . आपल्या सुरक्षेच्या दृष्टीने महत्वाच्या या प्रश्नावरील चर्चा आपल्या सर्वांना निश्चितच आवडेल . म्हणून सर्व सभासदांनी अवश्य उपस्थित रहावे .

वेळ - सायंकाळी ७.०० ते ८.००

स्थळ - रोटरी हॅाल , शिक्षण महाविद्यालय , एस एन डी टी विद्यापीठ

    धन्यवाद

नीला सरपोतदार , सचीव .

भारतासमोर सुरक्षेची आव्हाने वक्ते ब्रिगेडियर हेमंत महाजन शिवशंभो व्याख्यानमाला चिंचवड सोमवारी संध्याकाळी 8 पासून 0930 पर्यंत २४ फेब्रुवारी २०२५

भारतासमोर सुरक्षेची आव्हाने 

 वक्ते ब्रिगेडियर हेमंत महाजन 

शिवशंभो व्याख्यानमाला चिंचवड 

सोमवारी संध्याकाळी आठ पासून साडेनऊ पर्यंत 

२४ फेब्रुवारी २०२५

 

Strategic Importance of Qatar in India’s Growth

 Qatar is a key partner in India's energy security and economic development. Its role in India's growth trajectory has only deepened over the years, making it an indispensable ally in the Gulf region.

Diplomatic Priorities: Modi’s Special Gesture

Diplomacy follows set protocols, and reciprocity often dictates diplomatic courtesies. In India, visiting Heads of State are usually received by a Cabinet Minister, Minister of State, or a senior bureaucrat. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an exception by personally receiving the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, during his state visit to India on February 17–18. This rare gesture underscored the high strategic importance India places on its relationship with Qatar.

The visit further cemented bilateral ties, which had already functioned as a de facto strategic partnership. Modi’s two previous visits to Qatar and his conferment with the country’s highest honor reflect the strong diplomatic and personal rapport between the two nations.

Strengthening Bilateral Relations Amid Challenges

Despite strong ties, a diplomatic hiccup occurred when eight former Indian Navy officers were detained on espionage charges. Their subsequent release and pardon by the Emir demonstrated the effectiveness of high-level diplomatic engagement and personal trust between the two leaders. This underscores the unique nature of Gulf diplomacy, where interpersonal relationships play a crucial role in fostering trust and cooperation.

India’s Support to Qatar During the Blockade

India has consistently advocated diplomacy and dialogue in resolving regional disputes. During the 2017–2021 Gulf blockade, when Qatar was isolated by its neighboring Arab states, India stood firm in its support. It ensured the uninterrupted supply of essential goods to Qatar, with Indian exports to the country surging by 83% in 2017 alone.

Today, India-Qatar trade fluctuates between $10 billion and $14 billion, with a mutual commitment to double this figure by 2030. The participation of Indian businesses and the large Indian workforce in Qatar’s economy further strengthens this partnership.

Expanding Economic and Trade Cooperation

India and Qatar have taken significant steps to enhance trade and economic cooperation, including discussions on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). India’s success in implementing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE serves as a model for future India-Qatar trade agreements.

Qatar's adoption of India's Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and the opening of a Qatar National Bank branch in GIFT City are expected to boost trade, investment, and tourism. Additionally, Qatar’s inclusion in India’s e-visa facility will further facilitate business and people-to-people exchanges.

Qatar’s Role in India’s Energy Security

Qatar plays a pivotal role in India’s energy sector, supplying over 70% of India’s natural gas (LNG and CNG) imports. In 2023, a 20-year agreement was signed with Petronet to supply 7.5 million tonnes of LNG annually from 2028, valued at $78 billion. This deal aligns with India's Viksit Bharat 2047 vision and its climate change commitments.

Investment and Infrastructure Development

Despite Qatar’s significant financial resources, its investments in India have been relatively modest, amounting to around $1.5 billion. However, the announcement of a $10 billion investment in India’s infrastructure sector signals a major shift. This investment will focus on key sectors such as:

• Infrastructure and logistics
• Technology and manufacturing
• Food security and hospitality

The signing of an MoU between Invest Qatar and Invest India will further streamline investment opportunities and cooperation.

Enhancing Financial and Trade Mechanisms

The Avoidance of Double Taxation Agreement, signed during the visit, provides added financial security and transparency. Additionally, the Joint Working Group on Trade and Commerce has been elevated to a Joint Commission on Trade and Commerce, which will be chaired by Commerce Ministers from both sides. This institutional mechanism will play a crucial role in reviewing and expanding economic cooperation.

Expanding Collaboration in Technology and Security

India and Qatar have identified healthcare, food security, cybersecurity, AI, space technology, and digital governance as key areas of future collaboration. Indian startups are also set to participate in Web Summits in Doha in 2024–25, fostering innovation and entrepreneurship.

Joint Efforts to Combat Terrorism and Extremism

A significant outcome of the visit was the commitment to counter terrorism in all forms, including cross-border terrorism. India has expressed concerns over the alleged support for extremist groups from Gulf-based charities. As a result, both countries have agreed to enhance real-time intelligence sharing to combat terrorism, radicalization, and extremism, which threaten global stability.

Qatar’s Regional Influence and India’s Strategic Interests

In recent years, Qatar has positioned itself as a key mediator in regional and global conflicts, including:

• Taliban negotiations in Afghanistan
• Gaza conflict involving Hamas and Israel
• Strategic involvement in Syria

Additionally, Qatar hosts the largest US military base in the region, a Turkish military base, and maintains strong relations with Iran. The visit provided an opportunity for India to exchange views on volatile regional dynamics while strengthening its strategic position.

Elevating India-GCC Engagement

Under Qatar’s chairmanship of the GCC, India has initiated a Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue and a Joint Action Plan. The establishment of a high-level mechanism led by Foreign Ministers further strengthens India’s engagement with Qatar, the GCC, and the broader Gulf region.

Conclusion: A Strengthened Partnership for the Future

Qatar’s significance in India’s energy security, trade, investment, and regional diplomacy has never been greater. The visit of Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani marked a new phase in the India-Qatar partnership, with strategic, economic, and security collaborations expanding across multiple domains. As India deepens its engagement in the Gulf, Qatar remains a crucial partner in India’s extended neighborhood, shaping the future of bilateral and regional cooperation

RAND Questions China’s Combat Readiness

 U.S. Concerns Over China's Military Modernization

The 1990s marked a turning point in how the United States (U.S.) perceived China’s military advancements. Washington grew increasingly alarmed as Beijing initiated a comprehensive modernization of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), focusing on advanced submarines, ships, fighter jets, and missiles.

Recognizing the growing capabilities of the PLA, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) began publishing an annual report in 1999 titled Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China. These reports highlighted China's expanding military capabilities and strategic objectives.

The DoD's 2024 report references the 2022 National Security Strategy, which asserts that China "is the only competitor to the United States with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order." As China aims for "national rejuvenation" by 2049, the Communist Party of China (CPC) is building a "world-class" military to pursue its revisionist ambitions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

RAND Report Challenges China's Combat Readiness

A recent report by the RAND Corporation, an American nonprofit global policy think tank, contradicts the notion that China's military modernization is aimed at preparing for war. Titled The Chinese Military’s Doubtful Combat Readiness, the report claims that China is modernizing the PLA primarily to uphold CPC rule rather than to engage in combat.

RAND argues that despite China's military advancements, the PLA has historically prioritized political loyalty and enforcement of CPC rule over combat readiness. The report suggests that as China's economic and political challenges grow, the PLA will focus more on safeguarding the CPC rather than preparing for external conflicts.

While China boasts the world’s largest army, navy, and an extensive stockpile of ballistic missiles, RAND asserts that "recent modernization gains have not fundamentally changed the PLA’s political orientation." The report further claims that China is unprepared for a military confrontation with the U.S. over Taiwan, though it notably ignores the 2020 Ladakh incursions against India.

PLA's Modernization and Political Control

Chinese leadership, from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping, has ensured that the PLA remains the guardian of CPC rule. The RAND report references Mao’s 1938 speech stating, "Power grows from the barrel of a gun," highlighting the military's role in securing state power. Historical events, including the Korean War, Cultural Revolution, and Tiananmen Square Massacre, illustrate how the PLA has been used to suppress internal dissent and maintain party dominance.

RAND acknowledges that by the 1980s, Deng Xiaoping declared that China no longer faced the prospect of a major war. However, the conclusion that the PLA's modernization is solely for CPC rule is flawed for two reasons.

First, the PLA has always been the armed wing of the CPC, playing a crucial role in securing the party's rule since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949. Xi Jinping has further consolidated his control over the military by amending the party's constitution in 2018, eliminating presidential term limits, and purging rivals. As the general secretary of the CPC and head of the Central Military Commission (CMC), Xi ensures that the PLA also advances China’s foreign policy objectives.

Second, as noted in the DoD’s 2024 report, "the PLA has increasingly turned to military force as an instrument of statecraft to advance its foreign policy objectives—adopting more coercive and aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific region."

Evolution of China's Military Doctrine

RAND fails to account for the significant evolution in China’s military doctrine since the 1980s. Deng's 1985 doctrine of "Local War" emphasized limited conflicts rather than large-scale wars. This evolved into "Local Wars Under Modern, High-Tech Conditions" in 1993, influenced by U.S. military success in the Gulf War. By 1999, Jiang Zemin refined the PLA doctrine to "Local War Under Modern Informatised Conditions," integrating information technology across military domains.

Subsequent leaders have continued this trajectory. Under Xi Jinping, the PLA prioritizes cyber and space warfare, developing "long-range, precise, smart, stealthy, and unmanned weapons" while emphasizing integrated joint operations. Reforms under Xi have streamlined PLA command structures, reducing the number of Theatre Commands from seven to five to enhance operational efficiency.

China’s Defense White Papers from 2013, 2015, and 2019 consistently highlight the PLA’s modernization focus and combat readiness, refuting RAND's assertion that China's military exists solely to uphold CPC rule.

PLA Combat Readiness: India and Taiwan Perspectives

RAND argues that "China has continued to shy away from combat operations.

First, the PLA’s doctrine of informatised warfare integrates command, control, surveillance, and cyber capabilities across military domains. The PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) maintains high combat readiness, capable of transitioning from peacetime to full combat readiness within short notice. China's 2023 Dong Feng-31 ICBM tests demonstrated rapid launch capabilities, reinforcing strategic deterrence.

Second, China's actions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) against India contradict the notion of a passive military. The PLA's 2020 incursions in eastern Ladakh involved a pre-planned deployment of 200,000 troops, heavy artillery, and armored vehicles. The PLA’s doctrine emphasizes "preparations and alert activities" for border security, evident in its continuous infrastructure buildup and military drills in Tibet.

Third, China’s repeated military drills and aerial incursions near Taiwan demonstrate operational readiness. The PLA conducts extensive joint exercises involving naval, air, and missile forces to simulate potential invasion scenarios. Recent deployments of advanced drone swarms and amphibious forces near Taiwan indicate significant military preparedness.

Conclusion: Is the PLA Combat-Ready?

RAND’s assessment of the PLA as politically oriented rather than combat-ready . While the PLA remains an instrument of CPC control, it has also evolved into a formidable force with regional and global ambitions. 

 China’s growing military assertiveness, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, India, and Taiwan, suggests a force that is not only modernizing but also prepared for combat operations when necessary. The PLA’s capabilities, doctrine, and strategic actions indicate that it is far more than just a political tool of the CPC.

भारताची अंतर्गत सुरक्षा इतिहास आव्हाने कश्मीर, बागलादेशी घुसखोरी, दहशतवा...

Book Review: "The Legacy of Shivaji The Great: Military Strategy, Naval Supremacy, and the Maratha Empire" by Col Anil Athale

 Col. Anil Athale’s "The Legacy of Shivaji The Great: Military Strategy, Naval Supremacy, and the Maratha Empire" provides an in-depth examination of the Maratha Empire’s rise, its innovative military strategies, and its eventual decline. The book is meticulously researched and offers readers a comprehensive understanding of one of India’s most influential and resilient empires.

The book presents a nuanced and comprehensive analysis of Shivaji's military genius, strategic vision, and administrative acumen, highlighting how his innovations and achievements laid the foundations for the Maratha Empire's rise to power in the Indian subcontinent.

 The book provides a comprehensive analysis of Shivaji's strategic brilliance and his lasting impact on the military, political, and economic landscape of India. It highlights how Shivaji's pioneering approach to warfare and governance contributed to the rise of the Maratha Empire, which would go on to challenge the might of the Mughals and the European colonial powers in the subsequent centuries.

 

These chapters provide a comprehensive view of the Maratha efforts to resist British colonization, emphasizing both their military strategies and the challenges they faced. For a deeper dive into each chapter, the book offers detailed narratives and analyses​ .

Structure and Content

The book begins with a thought-provoking preface that questions why the Marathas, who successfully resisted the Mughals, eventually succumbed to the British. Athale explains that much of the historical record was destroyed, which has led to various distortions. Despite this, he has compiled a detailed account from multiple sources, providing an authentic picture of the Maratha-British struggle.

Preface

In the preface, Col. Anil Athale sets the stage by addressing a critical question: why did the Marathas, who valiantly fought against the Mughals, succumb so tamely to the British? He explains that the historical records of Shivaji's rule were mostly destroyed when the Mughals captured Raigarh in 1689, which has led to many controversies and distortions. Despite these challenges, Athale feels confident that he has provided an authentic picture of the epic struggle between the Anglo-Marathas after nine years of extensive research from multiple sources​

Prologue (Pages 1-12)

The prologue emphasizes that the British acquired India from the Marathas, not the Mughals. For about thirty years (1771-1802), the Marathas ruled significant parts of Central and North India. The prologue highlights lesser-known victories of the Marathas, such as the Battle of Wadgaon and the Maratha conquest of Orissa and parts of Bengal. It also touches upon the socio-cultural impact of prolonged Muslim rule on India and the resilience of the Maratha people under Shivaji's leadership, who warned Aurangzeb about the fierce resistance he would face from the hardy people of Maharashtra​ (eSamskriti)​.

Athale emphasizes that the British acquired India from the Marathas, not the Mughals. This section sets the stage by highlighting the Maratha Empire's significant, yet often overlooked, victories and their dominance in Central and North India during the late 18th century.

The book examines the strategic military and naval accomplishments of Shivaji, the founder of the Maratha Empire, and explores how his innovations and tactics laid the foundation for the Maratha rise to power in 17th century India. It analyzes Shivaji's key battles, his use of guerrilla warfare, cavalry, and naval forces, as well as the administrative and political structures he established to sustain the Maratha Empire.

 

Shivaji's Military Strategy:

 

Shivaji pioneered the use of highly mobile and lightly armored guerrilla forces known as "Shiledar" cavalry, allowing him to outmaneuver and harass the larger Mughal armies.

He emphasized the importance of intelligence gathering, surprise attacks, and strategic mobility over brute force, developing innovative tactics like the "Ganimi Kava" (or deceitful stratagem) to defeat numerically superior opponents.

Shivaji established a strong network of hill forts and defensive positions, using the rugged terrain of the Deccan to his advantage against the Mughals.

He recruited skilled commanders and administrators, fostering a meritocratic system that empowered capable leaders regardless of their social status.

Naval Supremacy:

 

Recognizing the importance of sea power, Shivaji built a formidable navy that challenged the dominance of the Siddis (Abyssinian naval forces) and the European trading companies in the Arabian Sea.

He developed a fleet of fast, maneuverable ships called "Galbat" and "Pal" that could quickly intercept and board enemy vessels.

Shivaji's naval forces successfully raided and disrupted the maritime trade routes of the Mughals and the European powers, undermining their economic and strategic interests.

The Maratha navy also played a crucial role in securing the coastal regions and providing logistical support to Shivaji's land forces.

Maratha Empire Building:

 

Shivaji established a centralized administrative system, with a efficient tax-collection network and a well-organized military command structure.

He introduced progressive socio-economic policies, such as the protection of peasants and the promotion of local industries, which won him the support of the common people.

Shivaji's shrewd political maneuvering, including diplomatic alliances and strategic marriages, helped him navigate the complex power dynamics of 17th century India.

The legacy of Shivaji's military and administrative innovations laid the foundation for the Maratha Empire, which would later emerge as a dominant power in the Indian subcontinent.

 

Shivaji's Military Innovations:

 

Shivaji employed a combined arms approach, using infantry, cavalry, artillery, and elite commando-like forces called "Mavale" to overwhelming effect against the Mughals.

He was an early proponent of "asymmetric warfare", relying on speed, surprise, and maneuverability to offset the Mughals' numerical and technological advantages.

Shivaji's cavalry forces were highly disciplined and trained in lightning-fast raids, ambushes, and hit-and-run tactics that demoralized and exhausted the Mughal armies.

He pioneered the use of light, mobile cannon called "Ganimi Topkhana" that could be rapidly deployed to provide artillery support.

Fortress Network and Guerrilla Tactics:

 

Shivaji built an extensive network of well-fortified hill forts across the Deccan that served as strategic strongholds and supply hubs for his forces.

These forts were designed with innovative features like concealed entrances, secret passages, and impregnable walls that made them difficult to capture.

His guerrilla forces would launch lightning strikes from these forts, ambushing Mughal supply lines and communication routes, before swiftly retreating to the safety of the hills.

This hit-and-run strategy allowed the Marathas to maintain the initiative and wear down the Mughals through a war of attrition.

Naval Capabilities and Maritime Trade:

 

Shivaji recognized the importance of naval power in projecting influence along the coastlines and disrupting the Mughal's maritime trade.

His navy was equipped with fast, maneuverable ships that could outpace and outgun the lumbering vessels of the Siddis and the European trading companies.

Maratha naval forces effectively blockaded and raided key ports, seizing merchant ships and capturing valuable cargoes, which provided critical resources to fund the Maratha war effort.

This naval supremacy allowed Shivaji to threaten the economic interests of the Mughals and the European powers, forcing them to divert resources and attention to the maritime front.

Administrative and Political Acumen:

 

Shivaji established a centralized Maratha administrative system with a sophisticated tax collection network, efficient record-keeping, and a robust intelligence apparatus.

He promoted a meritocratic system that rewarded capable individuals regardless of their social status, fostering a loyal and competent bureaucracy.

Shivaji's shrewd diplomatic maneuvering, including strategic alliances and marriages, allowed him to navigate the complex power dynamics of 17th century India.

By balancing the interests of various stakeholders, including peasants, nobility, and religious groups, Shivaji was able to consolidate his control and build a stable, prosperous Maratha state.

Athale organizes the narrative into two main parts. The first part covers Shivaji’s rise and the Maratha resistance against the Mughals, while the second part delves into the prolonged conflict between the Marathas and the British.

छत्रपती शिवाजी महाराज यांच्या जयंतीच्या निमित्ताने स्वतःला विचारा की मी देशाकरता आज काय करू शकतो

 

अनेक  थोर पुरुषांची प्रेरणा शि-वा-जी- या मंत्रात आहे,या मंत्राची प्रेरणा आज पण जरुरी आहे. आज देशा समोर सुरक्षेची अनेक आव्हाने आहेत. इतिहास हा गत काळाचा साक्षीदार,भावी काळाचा वाटाड्या असतो, जे राष्ट्र इतिहासा पासुन शिकत नाही ते कधीही महासत्ता बनु शकत नाही .राजांच्या असंख्य गुणांपैकी किती देशाच्या लोक प्रक्रुतीमधे उतरले हे महत्वाचेआहे.नर दुर्ग म्हणजे किल्यासारखी बुलंद,मजबुत,शुर,निष्ठावान,पराक्रमी माणसे महाराजांनी बनवली.

लढाईमध्ये सर्वांत महत्वाचा घटक सैनिक आणि त्याचे शौर्य असते. लढाई सैनिकांमुळे जिंकली जाते, प्रत्येकच लढाईमध्ये सैनिक कसे लढतात यावर हरणे आणि जिंकण्याचा फैसला होतो. शिवाजी महाराजांनी धोकेदायक परिस्थितीमध्ये सर्वात पुढे लढाई करून सैनिकांचे नेतृत्व केले आणि त्यामुळेच मराठ्यांनी त्यावेळेला महा पराक्रम गाजवला. शिवाजी महाराजांची पुढुन नेतृत्व करायची परंपरा आज सुद्धा भारतीय सैन्य चालवत आहे, ज्यामुळे चीन आणि पाकिस्तानचा आपण धडा शिकवतो. परंतु त्याची किंमत आपल्याला आपल्या अधिकार्यांचे रक्त सांडून करावी लागते.

शिवाजी महाराज शूर होते आणि त्यांनी देशाप्रती आपली जबाबदारी निभावली. आपला इतिहास अभिमानास्पद आहे परंतु प्रश्न आज उठतो की आज आम्ही देशाकरता काय करत आहे किंवा रोजच्या जीवनामध्ये एक देशभक्त देशप्रेमी नागरिक म्हणून आम्ही देशाकरता काय करू शकतो. याविषयीचे माझे काही विचार खाली देण्यात आलेले आहेत.

 

स्वतःला विचारा, मी या देशासाठी काय करतो?

कुठलाही देश महाशक्ती बनण्यामध्ये, देशाच्या सामान्य नागरिकांचा वाटा अत्यंत महत्त्वाचा असतो . असे असेल तर भारतीय देशाप्रती आपल्या जबाबदाऱ्या पूर्ण पणे निभावत आहे का? तर उत्तर नाही ,असे  आहे.

जबाबदार नागरिक बना

अभिव्यक्ती स्वातंत्र्याच्या नावाखाली मी काहीही लिहू शकतो, बोलू शकतो, भडकावु पोस्ट सोशल मीडिया वरती टाकू शकतो ,त्यामुळे हिंसाचार झाला तरी पर्वा नाही.

भारतीय घटनेने प्रत्येक भारतीयाला जसे अधिकार दिले आहेत, तशीच काही कर्तव्ये सुद्धा दिली आहेत. बर्याच वेळेला या कर्तव्यांकडे अनेक  दुर्लक्ष करतात.

 सार्वजनिक मालमत्ता ही आपली आहे, तिची जपणूक करणे ही सुद्धा आपलीच जबाबदारी आहे, याचा बहुतेकांना  विसर पडतो. सार्वजनिक जागा स्वच्छ ठेवणं , जागा मिळेल तिथं मलमूत्र विसर्जन न करणं ,सार्वजनिक अस्वच्छता हा नवीन विषय नाही. कार मधून रस्त्यावर प्लास्टीक आणि शीतपेयांच्या बाटल्या भिरकावल्या जातात,  किनाऱ्यावर दारूच्या फुटलेल्या बाटल्यांचा खच असतो, हे आपल्यातलेच काही सुशिक्षित लोक करतात .परिसर स्वच्छ ठेवणे ही आपली जबाबदारी आहे,आपल्याकडील कचरा सर्रास रस्त्यावर, सार्वजनिक ठिकाणी आपण टाकतो.येथे स्वच्छता राखा, असे लिहिलेल्या पाटीखालीच कचर्याचा डोंगर असतो. म्हणजे नियम हे मोडण्यासाठीच असतात, अशी आपली धारणा आहे.

आपण इतके बेजबाबदार आहोत की काही झाले की लगेच या सगळ्यांसाठी सरकार जबाबदार आहेत, असे म्हणून त्यातून अंग काढतो. आज प्रत्येक नागरिकाने आत्मपरीक्षण करण्याची गरज आहे. नाले, गटार हे सांडपाणी वाहून नेण्यासाठी असतात, कचरा टाकण्यासाठी नाही, पण तरीही नाल्यांना डम्पिंग ग्राऊंडचे रुप आलेले दिसते. ओला कचरा आणि सुका कचरा वेगळा टाकावा, अशा सूचना वारंवार पालिकेकडून दिल्या जातात. तरीही हा नियम अनेक पायदळी तुडवतात. आपण जबाबदार नागरिक का बनत नाही?

शहरांमधील वाहतुकीला शिस्त लावा

वाहतुकीचे नियम जितके आपल्याकडे मोडले जातात, तितके क्वचितच इतरत्र मोडले जात असतील. अस्ताव्यस्त पार्किंग करणे, ओव्हरटेक करणे ,अगदी छातीटोकपणे आपल्याकडे केले जाते. नियम मोडण्यात सुशिक्षित-अशिक्षित दोघेही आघाडीवर, हेच आपले दुर्दैव आहे. वेगवेगळ्या मिरवणुका काढून शहरांमध्ये वाहतुकीची कोंडी अजून कठीण करणे चालूच आहे.

वाहतूक पोलिसांची मजबूत फळी असावी. वाहतूक नियम तोडणार्या नागरिकांना शिक्षा द्यावी.वाहतुकीचे नियम पाळुन आपण प्रचंड प्रमाणामध्ये पेट्रोल आणि डिझेलची बचत करू शकतो आणि देशाच्या ऊर्जा सुरक्षेला मदत करू शकतो.

हिंसक आंदोलनाचा मोठा दुष्परिणाम देशावर

गेल्या काही महिन्यांपासून महाराष्ट्रात आणि देशात हिंसाचाराच्या घटना वाढल्या आहेत. या हिंसाचारात सर्वाधिक बळी जातात, ते सामान्य माणसांचे. स्त्रिया, लहान मुले, ज्येष्ठ नागरिक जे हिंसाचार घडत असलेल्या ठिकाणी अडकतात आणि ते मारहाण, जाळपोळ याला बळी पडतात. कामाकरिता बाहेर पडलेल्या लोकांना अचानक उसळलेल्या हिंसाचाराला बळी पडावे लागते. शहरात हिंसाचार , दूध आंदोलन, शेतकरी आंदोलन, यामध्ये सामान्य माणसांची सुरक्षा धोक्यात आली आहे. ज्यानी ही आंदोलने पुकारले, त्यामुळे देशाचे शेकडो कोटी रुपयांचे नुकसान झाले आहे.

राज्यातील महत्त्वाचे रस्ते बंद केल्यास अर्थव्यवस्थेचे प्रचंड प्रमाणामध्ये नुकसान होते. दिल्लीत झालेल्या तथाकथित शेतकरी आंदोलनामुळे दोन रस्ते बंद करण्यात आले होते. त्यामुळे ग्रेटर दिल्लीचे रोज हजारो कोटी रुपयांची नुकसान होत होते.एवढे नुकसान कुठल्याही प्रकारच्या दहशतवादामुळे झालेले नाही.

हिंसक आंदोलने हा  दहशतवादाचा प्रकार मानला पाहिजे. देशातील एखाद्या समाजावर अन्याय होत असेल तर त्या अन्यायाला प्रत्युत्तर म्हणुन हिंसा हा उपाय नाही. भारतीय कायदा हिंसाचाराचे समर्थन करत नाही. एखाद्या समाजाला, संस्थांना सरकारकडून कोणतीही मागणी मान्य करुन घ्यायची असेल ती कायद्याच्या चौकटीत राहून केली पाहिजे.

येत्या २०२5मध्ये अनेक निवडणुका होत आहेत. त्या पार्श्वभुमीवर या हिंसांचे, आंदोलनांचे प्रमाण वाढण्याची शक्यता आहे. हिंसाचाराला रोखून सामान्य माणसाचे रक्षण केले पाहिजे. गेल्या काही काळात झालेल्या हिंसाचाराला अनेक संस्था,अनेक राजकिय पक्ष जबाबदार आहे.मणिपूर मधल्या हिंसाचारामध्ये मैतेयी जमातीला कुकी जमातीचे नुकसान आणि कुकी जमातीला मैतेयी जमातीचे नुकसान भरण्यास भाग पाडले पाहिजे. टीव्ही मिडीया,सोशल मिडीया, वृत्तसंस्था अशा प्रकारच्या हिंसक आंदोलनांना विना कारण अतिरेकी प्रसिध्दी देतात .हिंसाचाराच्या बातम्यांना पान १ वरुन काढुन पान आठवर नेले पाहिजे.

नागरिकांचा सहभाग

सामान्य माणसांनी पोलिसांचे कान डोळे व बनले पाहिजे.कायदा-सुव्यवस्था राखणे ही पोलिसांची जबाबदारी असली तरी नागरिकांच्या सहभागाशिवाय पोलिसांना ते सक्षमपणे करता येणार नाही. त्यामुळे कायदा-सुव्यवस्था राखण्याच्या कामात समाजातील सर्व स्तरातील नागरिकांचे सहकार्य घेतले जावे. संबंधित पोलिस ठाण्यांच्या हद्दीत राहणार्या नागरिकांमधून कायद्याचे जाणकार, सामाजिक समस्यांचे जाणकार, राजकीय जाणकार, वकील, डॉक्टर, शिक्षक अशा सर्व क्षेत्रातील नागरिकांना निमंत्रित करून त्यांची एक समिती नेमली जावी. त्यामुळे या समितीच्या माध्यमातून प्रश्नावर तोडगा काढण्याचा प्रयत्न करून कायदा-सुव्यवस्था स्थिती राखली जाऊ शकते.

स्थानिक नागरिकांना गुप्त माहिती देण्यासाठी एक टोल फ़्री फोन क्रमांक दिला पाहिजे. जेणेकरून सामान्य नागरिक त्यांच्याकडील माहिती जलद पोलिसांपर्यंत पोहोचू शकतात. त्यांच्या नावाची गुप्तता बाळगली पाहिजे. मोबाईल फोन वरून हिंसक घटनेचे चित्रण करुन पोलिसांकडे पाठवले पाहिजे. जेणेकरुन हिंसक आंदोलकांना पकडणे सोपे जाईल.

आपापलं काम व्यवस्थित करणं हीच देशभक्ती

 

रस्त्यावरील सिग्नल पाळणं , रस्त्यावर न थुंकणं , स्त्रियांचा आदर करणं , दिलेली वेळ पाळणं , भ्रष्टाचारास उत्तेजन न देणं ,  आपल्याआधी लोकांचा विचार, जात आणि प्रांतीयवादाचा पुरस्कार न करणं , सार्वजनिक मालमत्तेची काळजी घेणं ही देशभक्ती आहे.

 

मतदान करणं , योग्य उमेदवार निवडणं, ही देशभक्ती आहे,मात्र 50 टक्के भारतीय निवडणुकांमध्ये मतदान करत नाही आणि मतदान दिवस सुट्टीचा दिवस म्हणून मजा करण्यामध्ये घालवतात.

स्वत:च्या क्षेत्रामध्ये वैध मार्गानं यशस्वी होणं, वाद न घालता काम करणं ,ही देशभक्ती आहे, गतकालातील गोष्टींवर वाद न घालणं , स्वत:च्या कर्तव्यांप्रती जागरूक असणं , सार्वजनिक विकास कामांना अडथळा निर्माण करून देशाचा विकास थांबवणे, सध्या जोरात सुरू आहे. स्वत:पलीकडे पाहणं आणि खरं सांगायचं तर "सुजाण नागरिक' बनण्याचा प्रयत्न करणं ही देशभक्तीच आहे.

प्रत्येकाने आपापलं काम व्यवस्थित करणं हीच आजच्या काळातली देशभक्ती आहे.

शिवाजी महाराजांची युद्ध पद्धती राज्यपद्धती आधुनिक भारताला आज सुद्धा योग्य मार्गावर जाण्यामध्ये मदत करू शकते..१००% शिवाजी होणे शक्य नसेल तर ४०-५०% ,२०-३० तरी शिवाजी बना.तसे झाले तरच आपण जागतिक महाशक्ती बनू शकतो.