Strategic Importance of the Kaladan Project
The completion of the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (KMMTTP) represents more than a mere friendship treaty between India and Myanmar. It stands to become a crucial axis for India as it navigates the growing instability on its northeastern borders. This week, Minister of Shipping Sarbananda Sonowal announced that the KMMTTP will be operational by 2027, aiming to connect Kolkata with Sittwe in Myanmar's Rakhine State via a multi-modal transport route.
Overview of the Kaladan Project
The KMMTTP plans to link Kolkata to Sittwe by sea, and then from Sittwe to Paletwa via the Kaladan River, ultimately connecting Paletwa to Zorinpui in Mizoram by road. Funded by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the project has faced significant delays since its inception in 2010. Despite the first cargo ships arriving at Sittwe in 2023, the vital Paletwa-to-Zorinpui road remains incomplete.
Political Context and Challenges
Sonowal emphasized that the KMMTTP is a strategic initiative born from the India–Myanmar Friendship Treaty, investing ₹1,000 crore into the development of waterways. However, the political turmoil following the military coup in Myanmar in 2021 has cast uncertainty over the project's future, regardless of financial commitments.
The Rise of Ethnic Armed Organizations
In post-coup Myanmar, various Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) have emerged as significant military and political entities. While some fight for federalism, others seek autonomy from the Tatmadaw. Control over territory is paramount, leading to ongoing conflicts. Estimates suggest that EAOs control nearly 50% of Myanmar, although most of the population resides in Tatmadaw-controlled areas.
The Arakan Army's Dominance
Among the numerous EAOs, the Arakan Army (AA) has become the most influential force in Rakhine State, where the KMMTTP is situated. Founded in 2009, the AA now boasts around 30,000 soldiers and has established a reputation for training smaller EAOs. Its leadership, particularly Maj. Gen. Twan Mrat Naing, enjoys significant local support and has captured most of Rakhine State, controlling 15 out of 18 townships.
Strategic Territory and Geopolitical Interests
Despite its territorial control, the AA has yet to seize critical areas like Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and Manaung. Some analysts suggest that the AA's lack of naval power hampers its ambitions, while others note recent Chinese developments in Kyaukphyu, indicating a potential deal for protection of Chinese investments.
China's Role in Myanmar's Turbulence
In 2023, the China-backed Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the AA, launched Operation 1027 against the Tatmadaw, highlighting China's influence over both the military and EAOs in Myanmar. China's interests revolve around limiting Western influence and ensuring the security of its infrastructure projects, which should raise concerns for India.
India's Balanced Approach
India has maintained a measured stance toward Myanmar, keeping communication lines open with the Tatmadaw while also providing humanitarian aid. Investments extend beyond the KMMTTP to the India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway. However, India's Myanmar policy must prioritize securing its northeastern borders while recognizing local dissatisfaction with Chinese influence.
Engaging with the Arakan Army
India's engagement with independent stakeholders, particularly the Arakan Army, could be pivotal. The AA's restraint in advancing on key townships may be a strategic move to negotiate leverage with external powers, including India and China. A potential outcome could be a revenue-sharing agreement that includes a federal system with an Arakanese Chief Minister.
India as a Mediator
In this context, India has the opportunity to position itself as a mediator, fostering positive relations with both the Arakanese and the Tatmadaw. The KMMTTP's successful completion is essential not only for India-Myanmar relations but also for the stability and development of Rakhine State.
Conclusion: A Path Forward
The KMMTTP is far more than a friendship treaty; it could serve as a foundation for managing regional instability. India must recognize that the strategic initiative extends beyond infrastructure—it is crucial for the Arakan Army and the people of Rakhine State. The final leg of the project, linking Paletwa to Zorinpui, will facilitate the supply of essential goods, reinforcing India's commitment to regional stability.
To fulfill its aspirations as a regional power, India must expedite the KMMTTP's completion, ensuring a robust and proactive engagement in Myanmar
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