The recent conflict between Israel and Iran, particularly Israel's "Operation Rising Lion," offers several crucial lessons for India across strategic, military, and economic domains.

 

Strategic Lessons for India:

1. Importance of Proactive Intelligence and Covert Operations:
• Lesson: Israel's success in crippling Iran's counterstrike was heavily reliant on deep intelligence penetration and covert sabotage operations within Iranian territory. This included targeting command-and-control structures, air defense systems, and ballistic missile launchers before the main aerial assault.
• India's Takeaway: India, facing complex security challenges from various state and non-state actors, must prioritize enhancing its human intelligence (HUMINT) capabilities, particularly in adversarial territories. Investing in sophisticated covert operation units and their integration with broader intelligence gathering is paramount. This includes developing "ungentlemanly robots" (small, explosive drones) for pre-emptive strikes and deception.
2. Decapitation Strikes on Command and Control:
• Lesson: Destroying the IRGC air force bunker and eliminating key commanders created immediate "shock and disarray" in Iran's response. This "decapitation strike" severely hampered their ability to coordinate and execute a swift counterstrike.
• India's Takeaway: In a conflict scenario, targeting enemy command and control centers, including leadership, can significantly degrade their capacity for effective retaliation. India should refine its capabilities for precision strikes aimed at such high-value targets, integrating intelligence with swift execution.
3. Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) as a Precursor:
• Lesson: Israel's extensive mapping and destruction of Iran's air defense systems and radars in the opening strike gave the IDF "virtually unchallenged freedom of operation in Iran's skies."
• India's Takeaway: Achieving air superiority is critical for any offensive or defensive military operation. India needs to ensure its SEAD capabilities are robust, enabling its air force to operate freely in contested airspace by neutralizing enemy air defense networks. This includes anti-radiation missiles, electronic warfare, and drone-based attacks.
4. Multi-Domain and Asymmetric Warfare:
• Lesson: Operation Rising Lion showcased a multi-pronged approach involving conventional air strikes, special forces operations, and covert drone bases within enemy territory. The use of hidden weapon systems in civilian vehicles and smuggled drones demonstrated an embrace of asymmetric and unconventional tactics.
• India's Takeaway: Modern warfare is not confined to traditional battlefields. India must develop and integrate capabilities across all domains (land, air, sea, space, cyber) and explore asymmetric warfare techniques. This includes leveraging technology for deception, developing niche capabilities, and preparing for hybrid threats.
5. Technological Superiority and Indigenous Development:
• Lesson: Israel's ability to execute such a complex and effective operation points to its significant technological advancements in intelligence, precision weaponry, and drone technology.
• India's Takeaway: India's emphasis on "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (self-reliant India) in defense is validated. Continued investment in indigenous research and development of advanced military technologies, including AI-enabled intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR), drones, precision-guided munitions, and cyber warfare capabilities, is crucial to maintaining a strategic edge.
6. Nuclear Deterrence and Escalation Management:
• Lesson: The conflict highlights the delicate balance of nuclear deterrence and the importance of managing escalation. While Israel conducted significant strikes, the limited initial Iranian response (drones easily defeated) suggests a reluctance to escalate to a full-blown missile barrage, potentially due to the effectiveness of Israeli pre-emption and the implicit threat of further escalation.
• India's Takeaway: India's "No First Use" (NFU) policy and "Credible Minimum Deterrence" remain foundational. However, understanding how to manage escalation in a high-stakes conflict, where conventional strikes could trigger nuclear signaling, is vital. India must ensure its nuclear doctrine is credible and its conventional capabilities are strong enough to deter aggression while avoiding unintended escalation. The incident also compels India to reassess its "massive retaliation" doctrine in light of potential tactical nuclear weapon use by adversaries, as well as the impact of missile defense systems.

Economic and Geopolitical Lessons for India:

1. Energy Security:
• Lesson: The conflict immediately impacted global oil prices. India, being heavily reliant on crude oil imports, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, is vulnerable to disruptions in the Middle East.
• India's Takeaway: Diversifying energy sources, strengthening strategic oil reserves, and exploring alternative trade routes are critical for India's energy security. The viability of projects like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is directly affected by regional stability.
2. Trade and Supply Chain Resilience:
• Lesson: Conflicts in key maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea (due to Houthi threats) can disrupt global trade, increasing shipping costs and transit times.
• India's Takeaway: India needs to invest in resilient supply chains and explore alternative shipping routes to mitigate the impact of regional conflicts. Strengthening its naval presence in critical maritime areas to safeguard its commercial interests is also important.
3. Safety of Indian Nationals Abroad:
• Lesson: The conflict highlighted the vulnerability of Indian expatriates in the region, prompting calls for evacuation.
• India's Takeaway: India must have robust contingency plans for the evacuation of its large diaspora in the Middle East in times of crisis, including clear communication channels and logistical arrangements.
4. Diplomatic Balancing Act:
• Lesson: India maintains strong ties with both Iran (e.g., Chabahar Port) and Israel (defense, technology, I2U2, IMEC). The conflict puts India in a delicate position, requiring a careful diplomatic balancing act.
• India's Takeaway: India's role as a potential mediator between conflicting parties, as suggested by the Israeli Ambassador, can be significant given its good relations with both sides. India should leverage its diplomatic influence to advocate for de-escalation and peaceful resolution, while safeguarding its own diverse strategic and economic interests in the region.

In conclusion, Operation Rising Lion serves as a potent case study for India, underscoring the imperative for a multi-faceted defense strategy that integrates advanced intelligence, precision strike capabilities, multi-domain operations, and robust indigenous technological development, all while navigating the complex geopolitical and economic implications of regional instability.